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BACKGROUND: Most cardiovascular (CV) events stem from modifiable risk factors, but it remains uncertain whether their impact on mortality has decreased in recent years as a result of treatment, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. We evaluated the temporal trends in the population attributable fraction (PAF) of modifiable risk factors to CV mortality in patients undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for suspected coronary artery disease in a large city in Brazil. METHODS: The cohort comprised 25,127 patients without established CV disease undergoing MPI in a referral center in Curitiba, Brazil, from 2010 to 2018. Baseline demographic, clinical and risk factors were prospectively collected. Modifiable risk factors encompassed hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, sedentary lifestyle, obesity, and smoking. The primary outcome was CV death occurring up to 4 years of follow-up. The PAF of each risk factor was calculated for each triennium using multivariable Cox proportional regression models, adjusting for age, sex and family history of premature coronary disease. RESULTS: Over 9 years, there were 1438 deaths, 444 due to CV causes. In the first triennium, sedentary lifestyle exhibited the highest PAF (49%) for CV death, followed by hypertension (17%), diabetes mellitus (8%) and smoking habit (6%). The PAF for all risk factors combined remained relatively stable thorough the triennia (2010-2012: 57% vs 2013-2015: 64% vs 2016-2018: 47%, p = NS). CONCLUSION: In this large cohort of patients referred to MPI, the PAF of modifiable CV risk factors did not diminish in the last decade, with sedentary lifestyle having the largest contribution for CV mortality. CONDENSED ABSTRACT: This study examinated temporal trends in the impact of modifiable cardiovascular (CV) risk factors on CV and overall mortality in a cohort of 25,127 patients undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging from 2010 to 2018. Sedentary behavior consistently had the greatest impact on both CV and overall mortality, followed by hypertension and diabetes. Smoking had a lesser effect, while obesity showed no independent association with the outcomes. The contributions of these modifiable CV risk factors remained stable over the study period, suggesting that interventions promoting physical activity may be essential in mitigating the burden of CV disease.

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PURPOSE: This study aimed to estimate the health, economic, and environmental impacts of moderate simulated interventions on dietary intake in Brazil. METHODS: Data on food price and consumption were obtained from three nationwide surveys. Baseline dietary intake was estimated for 33,859 individuals aged 25 years and older. Counterfactual intakes were based on six hypothetical intervention scenarios, by changing the weekly frequency and serving size in low or high consumers of fruit and vegetables (FV), milk, whole grains, red and processed meats, and sugar-sweetened beverages. For each scenario, we estimated the attributable number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY), monetary cost, environmental impacts (14 midpoint indicators), and environmentally-mediated health impacts. RESULTS: Compared with the baseline intake and cost, the most expensive intervention (+ 8.3%) was to increase FV intake (+ 125 g), resulting in a 1.2% reduction in all-cause mortality (16,307 deaths/year). The cheapest (- 9.9%) was to reduce red and processed meat intake (- 40 g), resulting in a 1.1% reduction in all-cause mortality (14,272 deaths/year). The combined intervention was, on average, 3.7% cheaper than the baseline cost, resulting in an increase in diet cost for 30% of the population (45-22% in the lower- and higher-income groups); all-cause mortality would be reduced by 3.8% (49,488 deaths/year). Interventions targeting red and processed meats would reduce emissions and resource use by 35-55%, in addition to reducing 2300 DALYs/year. CONCLUSION: A meaningful number of deaths can be avoided and environmental impacts reduced through moderate and potentially affordable diet modifications.

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BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on the population attributable fraction (PAF) of cancer cases and deaths in Latin America. In Peru several studies have been published regarding the PAF of various risk factors and their associated diseases. The objective of this study was to estimate the fraction of cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in Peru in 2018, before the COVID-19 pandemic in the population of 15 years old and older. METHODS: An ecological study was conducted using the prevalence of exposure of the Peruvian population to modifiable risk factors for cancer, the relative risk associated with each factor, and the number of cancer cases and deaths in 2018 as inputs. We used the Parkin formula with a Montecarlo statistical simulation model to calculate the PAF and confidence intervals. The number of new cancer cases and deaths attributed to each risk factor was determined by multiplying the number of cases and deaths in each gender by the PAF of each risk factor. FINDINGS: In Peru, 38.5% of new cases (34.5% in men and 42% in women) and 43.4% of cancer-related deaths (43.4% in men and 43.4% in women) were attributable to modifiable risk factors. The number of cancers attributable was 25,308 (10,439 in men and 14,869 in women) and the number of deaths attributable to cancer was 14,839 (6,953 in men and 7,886 in women). The predominant modifiable risk factors contributing to the highest number of cases and deaths were HPV infection (4,563 cases, 2,409 deaths), current tobacco use (3,348 cases, 2,180 deaths), and helicobacter pylori infection (2,677 cases, 1,873 deaths). Among the risk factors, oncogenic infections constituted the group with the highest PAF (16.6% for cases, 19.2% for deaths) followed by other unhealthy lifestyle factors (14.2% for cases, 16.7% for deaths), tobacco (7.2% for cases, 7.2% for deaths) and ultraviolet radiation (0.5% for cases, 0.3% for deaths). CONCLUSIONS: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, 38.5% of cancer cases and 43.4% of cancer-related deaths in Peru were linked to modifiable risk factors in the population of 15 years old and older. Most preventable cancer cases and deaths were related to oncogenic infections, primarily caused by HPV and helicobacter pylori, followed by tobacco and obesity.

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INTRODUCTION: Twelve modifiable risk factors (RFs) account for 40% of dementia cases worldwide. However, limited data exist on such factors in middle- and low-income countries. We aimed to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for the 12 RFs in Argentina, assessing changes over a decade and exploring socioeconomic and sex influences. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analyses of the 12 RFs from Argentinian surveys conducted in 2009, 2015, and 2018, including 96,321 people. We calculated PAFs and stratified estimates based on sex and income. RESULTS: We estimated an overall PAF of 59.6% (95% CI = 58.9-60.3%). The largest PAFs were hypertension = 9.3% (8.7-9.9%), physical inactivity = 7.4% (6.8-8.2%), and obesity = 7.4% (6.8-7.9%). Men were more impacted by excessive alcohol, while women by isolation and smoking. Lower income linked to higher PAFs in education, hypertension, and obesity. DISCUSSION: Argentina has a higher PAF for dementia than the world population, with distinct RF distribution. PAF varied by sex and economic status, advocating tailored prevention strategies.

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INTRODUCTION: The number of cases of dementia attributable to physical inactivity remains unclear due to heterogeneity in physical inactivity definitions and statistical approaches used. METHODS: Studies that used population-based samples to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of physical inactivity for dementia were included in this review. Weighted PAFs were adjusted for communality among the risk factors (i.e., inactive persons may also share other risk factors) analyzed. Values were reported as percentage (%) of cases of dementia attributable to physical inactivity. RESULTS: We included 22 studies. The overall impact of physical inactivity, defined by any criteria, on dementia ranged from 6.6% (95% CI: 3.6%, 9.6%; weighted) to 16.6% (95% CI: 14.4%, 18.9%; unweighted). Studies using the WHO criterion for physical inactivity estimated a higher unweighted impact (ß = 7.3%; 95% CI: 2.0%, 12.6%) than studies using other criteria. DISCUSSION: Conservatively, one in 15 cases of dementia may be attributable to physical inactivity, defined by any criteria.

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BACKGROUND: The study of the etiology of acute febrile illness (AFI) has historically been designed as a prevalence of pathogens detected from a case series. This strategy has an inherent unrealistic assumption that all pathogen detection allows for causal attribution, despite known asymptomatic carriage of the principal causes of acute febrile illness in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We designed a semi-quantitative PCR in a modular format to detect bloodborne agents of acute febrile illness that encompassed common etiologies of AFI in the region, etiologies of recent epidemics, etiologies that require an immediate public health response and additional pathogens of unknown endemicity. We then designed a study that would delineate background levels of transmission in the community in the absence of symptoms to provide corrected estimates of attribution for the principal determinants of AFI. METHODS: A case-control study of acute febrile illness in patients ten years or older seeking health care in Iquitos, Loreto, Peru, was planned. Upon enrollment, we will obtain blood, saliva, and mid-turbinate nasal swabs at enrollment with a follow-up visit on day 21-28 following enrollment to attain vital status and convalescent saliva and blood samples, as well as a questionnaire including clinical, socio-demographic, occupational, travel, and animal contact information for each participant. Whole blood samples are to be simultaneously tested for 32 pathogens using TaqMan array cards. Mid-turbinate samples will be tested for SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A and Influenza B. Conditional logistic regression models will be fitted treating case/control status as the outcome and with pathogen-specific sample positivity as predictors to attain estimates of attributable pathogen fractions for AFI. DISCUSSION: The modular PCR platforms will allow for reporting of all primary results of respiratory samples within 72 h and blood samples within one week, allowing for results to influence local medical practice and enable timely public health responses. The inclusion of controls will allow for a more accurate estimate of the importance of specific prevalent pathogens as a cause of acute illness. STUDY REGISTRATION: Project 1791, Registro de Proyectos de Investigación en Salud Pública (PRISA), Instituto Nacional de Salud, Perú.

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OBJECTIVE: This study estimated the population attributable fractions, preventable deaths, and indirect economic costs from major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and all causes associated with excessive sitting time in Argentina in 2019. METHODS: Population attributable fractions were used to calculate preventable deaths from NCDs and all causes associated with prolonged sitting time (≥6 h/d). Then, the human capital approach was used to quantify the present value of lifetime earnings, which was subsequently used to calculate indirect costs due to lost productivity. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed in three counterfactual scenarios to evaluate the sensitivity of the results. RESULTS: In Argentinian men and women, respectively, approximately 11.3% (381) [10% (290)] of deaths from colon cancer, 4.4% (250) from breast cancer (women only), 4.6% (588) [4.4% (402)] from coronary heart disease, 30.5% (1390) [27% (1047)] from diabetes, and 14.9% (24,686) [13.7% (21,418)] from all causes could have been avoided annually by eliminating excessive sitting time. The indirect economic costs of excessive sitting time reached 0.025% (0.019%-0.032%) and 0.37% (0.25-0.58%) of gross domestic product (GDP) for major NCDs and all causes, respectively. High levels of heterogeneity were found at the regional level. CONCLUSION: Prolonged sitting time generates substantial societal costs. Public policies aimed at reducing excessive sedentary behavior in the overall population, especially in the most affected regions, would represent considerable savings for society as a whole. Such initiatives should address the complex and multifactorial causes of sedentary behavior, the clear gender and age differences in this behavior, and the factors underlying these differences.

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[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/ijph.2022.1604103.].

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Objectives: To quantify the impact of temporal changes in the consumption of ultra-processed foods on obesity trends in Brazil between 2002 and 2009. Methods: We analyzed data from two Household Budget Surveys carried out in 2002/2003 (n = 182,333) and 2008/2009 (n = 190,159), which provided information on household food acquisition and individuals' weight and height. We examined the association between ultra-processed foods consumption and obesity and quantified the fraction of increase in obesity prevalence attributable to the rise in the consumption of ultra-processed foods. Results: From 2002 to 2009, there was an increase in the obesity prevalence from 9.9% (95% CI 9.3; 10.4) to 13.2% (12.8; 13.7) while the contribution of ultra-processed foods to total energy consumption raised from 14.3% (13.4; 15.1) to 17.3% (16.5; 18.1). Ultra-processed foods consumption was positively associated with obesity prevalence. More than one quarter (28.6%) of the increase in obesity prevalence was attributable to the rise in the consumption of ultra-processed foods in the period. Conclusion: We found that the rise in the consumption of ultra-processed foods played a major role on the increase of obesity epidemic in Brazil.

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INTRODUCTION: Projected dementia incidence in Latin America and the Caribbean for the next decades is overwhelming. Access to local data, stratified by sex, is imperative for planning precise dementia-prevention strategies. METHODS: We analyzed the individual and overall weighted population attributable fraction (PAF) of nine modifiable risk factors for dementia, in dementia-free subjects ≥45-years-old, using the 2016-2017 Chilean National Health Survey. RESULTS: The overall weighted PAF for modifiable risk factors was 45.8% (42.2% to 49.3%). Variables with the highest PAF were lower education, high blood pressure, hearing loss, and obesity. Women showed a greater overall weighted PAF: 50.7% (45.3% to -56.1%), compared to men: 40.2% (35.4% to 45.0%), driven by a higher PAF for physical inactivity and depression in women. DISCUSSION: The PAF for modifiable risk factors for dementia in Chile is higher than in previous world reports, due to a greater prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. Women have a higher potential for dementia prevention. HIGHLIGHTS: The proportion of dementia associated to modifiable risk factors in Chile is 45.8%.The main modifiable risk factors are high blood pressure, obesity, and hearing loss.Women had a greater prevalence of physical inactivity and depression than men.Chile had a greater prevalence of metabolic risk factors than other world regions.

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Background: Exposure to 2.5-micron diameter air pollutants (PM 2.5) has been associated with an increased risk of illness and death worldwide; however, in Latin American health impacts assessment of this risk factor is scarce. Medellín is one of the most polluted cities in the region, with a population growth rate that is twice as high as that of other Colombian cities, which implies a growing population at risk. Methods: A descriptive study of the disease burden was carried out using the city as the unit of observation. Health events were selected based on epidemiologic evidence and the availability of the population attributable fraction associated with PM 2.5. The mortality records were taken from the module of deceased of the Single Registry of Affiliates of the Health System; the morbidity records were taken from the Individual Health Services Registries. For the estimation of the burden of disease, the current Global Burden of Disease guidelines were followed. Results: Attributable disability-adjusted life years to exposure to ambient PM 2.5 pollution (DALYs PM2.5) constituted 13.8% of total burden of the city. Males showed the greatest loss of DALYs PM2.5 due to acute events, while in women the greatest loss was due to chronic events. Ischemic heart disease, chronic diseases of the lower respiratory tract, and influenza and pneumonia were the events that contributed the most to DALYs PM2.5. 71.4% of the DALYs PM2.5 corresponded to mortality, mainly in the population over 65 years of age. Regarding attributable morbidity, acute events were more prevalent in both sexes, especially due to respiratory diseases Conclusion: Premature death among the elderly population has the greatest weight on burden of disease attributable to ambient PM 2.5 pollution, mainly due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, without significant differences according to gender.

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Cross-sectional nutritional survey data collected in eight countries were used to estimate saturated fatty acid intakes. Our objective was to estimate the proportion of excessive saturated fatty acid intakes (>10 % of total energy intake) that could be avoided if ultra-processed food consumption was reduced to levels observed in the first quintile of each country. Secondary analysis was performed of 24 h dietary recall or food diary/record data collected by the most recently available nationally representative cross-sectional surveys carried out in Brazil (2008-9), Chile (2010), Colombia (2005), Mexico (2012), Australia (2011-12), the UK (2008-16), Canada (2015) and the US (2015-16). Population attributable fractions estimated the impact of reducing ultra-processed food consumption on excessive saturated fatty acid intakes (above 10 % of total energy intake) in each country. Significant relative reductions in the percentage of excessive saturated fatty acid intakes would be observed in all countries if ultra-processed food consumption was reduced to levels observed in the first quintile's consumption. The reductions in excessive intakes ranged from 10⋅0 % (95 % CI 6⋅2-13⋅6 %) in Canada to 35⋅0 % (95 % CI 28⋅7-48⋅0 %) in Mexico. In all eight studied countries, all presenting more than 30 % of intakes with excessive saturated fatty acids, lowering the dietary contribution of ultra-processed foods to attainable, context-specific levels was shown to be a potentially effective way to reduce the percentage of intakes with excessive saturated fatty acids, which may play an important role in the prevention of non-communicable diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases.

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Background: Population-attributable risk (PAR) may help estimate the potential contribution of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) to serious clinical presentations of depression, characterized by suicidality, previous psychiatric admissions, and episode recurrence. Objective: To determine the PAR of ACEs for serious clinical presentations of depression (high suicide risk, previous psychiatric admissions, and recurrent depression) in outpatients with ICD-10 clinical depression. Method: Systematic chart review of 1,013 adults who were assessed and/or treated in a mental health clinic in Santiago, Chile for a major depressive episode. Data were collected on demographics and clinical characteristics of depression. Exposure to ACEs was determined with the Brief Physical and Sexual Abuse Questionnaire, assessing seven types of ACEs. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between exposure to ACEs and suicidality, previous psychiatric admissions, and recurrence. Predicted probabilities were used for calculations of PAR. Results: Of the 1,001 study participants with complete data, 53.3% had recurrent depression, 13.5% had high suicide risk, and 5.0% had previous psychiatric admissions. Exposure to at least one ACE was recorded for 69.0% of the sample. Exposure to at least one ACE and specific types of ACEs (i.e. childhood sexual abuse and traumatic separation from caregiver) were associated with serious clinical presentations of depression. A dose-response relationship was observed between cumulative exposure to ACEs and the most serious clinical presentations of depression. ACEs were attributed to a significant proportion of disease: 61.6% of previous psychiatric admissions, 45.0% of high suicide risk, and 14.5% of recurrent depression. Conclusions: A substantial proportion of serious clinical presentations of depression among outpatients are associated with ACEs. Early detection of depressive episodes associated with ACEs, and tailored treatment for these patients, may potentially reduce the incidence of serious complications in this population.

Introducción: El riesgo atribuible poblacional (RAP) puede ayudar a estimar la potencial contribución de las experiencias adversas infantiles (EAIs) a las presentaciones clínicas serias de la depresión, caracterizadas por riesgo suicida, hospitalizaciones psiquiátricas previas y recurrencia de episodios.Objetivo: Determinar el RAP de las EAIs para las presentaciones clínicas serias de la depresión (alto riesgo suicida, hospitalizaciones psiquiátricas previas y depresión recurrente) en pacientes deprimidos ambulatorios.Método: Revisión sistemática de fichas clínicas de 1.013 adultos que fueron evaluados y/o tratados en una clínica de salud mental en Santiago, Chile por un episodio depresivo mayor. Se recolectaron datos demográficos y sobre características clínicas de la depresión. La exposición a EAIs se determinó con el Brief Physical and Sexual Abuse Questionnaire, evaluándose siete tipos de EAIs. Se usó análisis de regresión logística multivariada para evaluar la asociación entre exposición a EAIs y riesgo suicida, hospitalizaciones psiquiátricas previas y recurrencia. Las probabilidades predichas fueron utilizadas para los cálculos de los RAP.Resultados: De 1.001 participantes del estudio con datos completos, 53,3% tuvieron una depresión recurrente, 13,5% tuvieron alto riesgo suicida, y 5,0% tuvieron hospitalizaciones psiquiátricas previas. La exposición a al menos un EAI se registró en 69,0% de la muestra. La exposición a al menos un EAI y tipos específicos de EAIs (i.e. abuso sexual infantil y la separación traumática del cuidador), se asociaron con presentaciones clínicas serias de la depresión. Se observó una relación dosis-respuesta entre la exposición cumulativa a EAIs y las presentaciones clínicas más serias de la depresión. Las EAIs se atribuyeron una proporción significativa de la enfermedad: 61,6% de las hospitalizaciones psiquiátricas previas, 45,0% del alto riesgo suicida, y 14,5% de depresión recurrente.Conclusiones: Una proporción sustancial de presentaciones clínicas serias de la depresión en pacientes deprimidos ambulatorios se asocian con EAIs. La detección temprana de los episodios depresivos asociados con EAIs y el tratamiento a la medida para estos pacientes podrían potencialmente reducir la incidencia de complicaciones serias en esta población.

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Objetivo: Evaluar la factibilidad y validar de la propuesta metodológica para estimar la incidencia y mortalidad por cáncer atribuible a factores de riesgo modificables para el Perú y Latinoamérica. Métodos: Estudio piloto, ecológico a partir de fuentes secundarias. Se buscó y seleccionó los factores de riesgo modificables, prevalencia de exposicion, los riesgos relativos de dichos factores (RR) o una aproximación mediante la razón de posibilidades (OR). La información fue consignada en una ficha de recolección de datos la cual fue validada mediante juicio de expertos. Para el cálculo de la Fracción Atribuible Poblacional (FAP) se ensayó la fórmula planteada por Parkin y se desarrolló un modelo de simulación estadística con el software R. Studio V. 3.6.1. Resultados: En el Perú se cuenta con estudios de prevalencia para la mayoría de factores de riesgo modificables; asimismo, se dispone en Latinoamérica de estudios con estimaciones de OR para varios de los factores; sin embargo hubo que utilizar estudios de los Estados Unidos para los factores restantes. No hallamos estudios nacionales de radiaciones ionizantes ni ultravioleta. Se ensayó la sintaxis del modelo de simulación estadística la cual mostró ser válida y consistente con los resultados de estudios internacionales de FAP encontrándose dentro de los rangos de los estudios publicados. Conclusión: Es factible y viable realizar estudios de FAP de factores de riesgo modificables para cáncer en países de Latinoamérica, particularmente en el Perú, donde se cuenta con la información requerida para su estimación.

Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of the methodological proposal to estimate the incidence and mortality due to cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors for Peru and Latin America. Methods: Pilot study, ecological from secondary sources. Modifiable risk factors, exposure prevalence, relative risks of these factors (RR) or an approximation by means of possibilities ratio (OR) were searched and selected. The information was recorded in a data collection form which was validated by expert judgment. For the calculation of the Population Attributable Fraction (FAP), the formula proposed by Parkin was tested and a statistical simulation model was developed with R. Studio V. 3.6.1 software. Results: In Peru there are prevalence studies for the majority of modifiable risk factors; Likewise, studies with OR estimates for several of the factors are available in Latin America; however, studies from the United States had to be used for the remaining factors. No national studies of ionizing or ultraviolet radiation were found. The syntax of the statistical simulation model was tested, which proved to be valid and consistent with the results of international FAP studies within the ranges of published studies. Conclusion: It is feasible and viable to carry out PAF studies of modifiable risk factors for cancer in Latin American countries, particularly in Peru, where the information required for its estimation is available.

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BACKGROUND: Lifestyle risk factors (tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, overweight and obesity, unhealthy diet, and lack of physical activity) have been associated with increased risk of at least 20 types of cancer. We estimated the proportion of cancer cases and deaths that could be potentially avoided by eliminating or reducing lifestyle risk factors in Brazil. METHODS: We obtained the distribution of lifestyle risk factors by sex and age groups from recent representative health surveys in Brazil; relative risks from pooled analyses of prospective studies and meta-analyses; and cancer cases and deaths in 2012 from GLOBOCAN. RESULTS: We found that 26.5% (114,497 cases) of all cancer cases and 33.6% (63,371 deaths) of all cancer deaths could be potentially avoided by eliminating lifestyle risk factors in Brazil. Plausible reductions in these exposures based on policy targets and cancer prevention recommendations could have potentially avoided 4.5% (19,731 cases) and 6.1% (11,480 deaths) of all cancer cases and deaths, respectively. Tobacco smoking accounted for most of the preventable cancer cases and deaths, followed by high body mass index and alcohol consumption. Larynx, lung, oropharynx, esophagus and colorectum cancer cases and deaths could be at least halved by eliminating these lifestyle risk factors. CONCLUSION: Findings from this study may be useful to inform strategies for cancer prevention and control across Brazil.

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BACKGROUND: Studies on the impact of counterfactual scenarios of physical activity on premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are sparse in the literature. We estimated preventable premature deaths from NCDs (diabetes, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and breast and colon cancers) in Brazil by increasing population-wide physical activity (i) to theoretical minimum risk exposure levels; (ii) reaching the physical activity recommendation; (iii) reducing insufficient physical activity by 10%; and (iv) eliminating the gender differences in physical activity. METHODS: Preventable fractions were estimated using data from a nationally representative survey, relative risks from a meta-analysis and number of premature deaths (30-69 years) from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. RESULTS: Physical activity could potentially avoid up to 16 700 premature deaths from NCDs in Brazil, corresponding to 5.75 and 3.23% of premature deaths from major NCDs and of all-causes, respectively. Other scenarios suggested the following impact on premature deaths: reaching physical activity recommendation (5000 or 1.74% of major NCDs); 10% reduction in insufficient physical activity (500 or 0.17% of major NCDs); eliminating gender differences in physical activity (1000 or 0.33% of major NCDs). CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity may play an important role to reduce premature deaths from NCD in Brazil.

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BACKGROUND: Physical activity is associated with lower risk of colon and breast cancers. Herein we estimated preventable fractions of colon and breast cancers in Brazil by increasing population-wide physical activity to different counterfactual scenarios. METHODS: We used data from a representative national survey in Brazil and corresponding relative risks of colon and postmenopausal breast cancers from a meta-analysis. Estimated cancer incidence was retrieved from GLOBOCAN and Brazilian National Cancer Institute. Five counterfactual scenarios for physical activity were considered: (i) theoretical minimum risk exposure level (≥8,000 metabolic equivalent of tasks-minute/week - MET-min/week); (ii) physical activity recommendation (≥600 MET-min/week); (iii) a 10% reduction in prevalence of insufficient physical inactivity (<600 MET-min/week); (iv) physical activity level in each state equals the most active state in Brazil; (v) closing the gender differences in physical activity. RESULTS: About 19% (3,630 cases) of colon cancers and 12% (6,712 cases) of postmenopausal breast cancers could be prevented by increasing physical activity to ≥8,000 MET-min/week. Plausible counterfactual scenarios suggested the following impact on cancer prevention: reaching physical activity recommendation: 1.7% (1,113 cases) of breast and 6% (1,137 cases) of colon; 10% reduction in physical inactivity prevalence: 0.2% (111 cases) of breast and 0.6% (114 cases) of colon; most active state scenario: 0.3% (168 cases) of breast and 1% (189 cases) of colon; reducing gender differences in physical activity: 1.1% (384 cases) of breast and 0.6% (122 cases) of colon. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of physical activity are required to achieve a sizable impact on breast and colon cancer prevention in Brazil.

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BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI) has been constantly increasing over the last decades in most parts of the world, most notably in transitioning nations such as Brazil. High BMI (>22 kg/m2) is associated with an increased risk of 14 types of cancer. We estimated the extent to which reducing high BMI could lower cancer incidence in Brazil, nationally as well as at regional and state levels. METHODS: We calculated fractions of cancer incidence in 2012 attributable to high BMI as well as projections for attributable cases in 2025 using BMI data from representative national surveys and relative risks published in meta-analyses. Estimates of cancer incidence were retrieved from GLOBOCAN and the Brazilian National Cancer Institute. RESULTS: We found that 15,465 (3.8%) of all new cancer cases diagnosed in Brazil in 2012 were attributable to high BMI, with a higher burden in women (5.2%) than in men (2.6%). The cancer sites contributing most to the number of attributable cases were breast (n = 4777), corpus uteri (n = 1729), and colon (n = 681) in women, and colon (n = 1062), prostate (n = 926), and liver (n = 651) in men. The highest population attributable fractions (PAFs) for all cancers were found in the richer states of the country, located in the south (1.5% men/3.4% women) and the southeast (1.5% men/3.3% women). CONCLUSIONS: Cancer cases attributable to high BMI will reach 29,490, which will be 4.6% of all cancers in Brazil in 2025; the extent will be greater in women (6.2% or 18,837) than in men (3.2% or 10,653). This information is a tool to support policy makers for future cancer prevention strategies in Brazil.

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OBJECTIVES: To quantify how large a part of educational dropout is due to adverse childhood health conditions and to estimate the risk of dropout across various physical and mental health conditions. STUDY DESIGN: A registry-based cohort study was conducted on a 20% random sample of Finns born in 1988-1995 (n = 101 284) followed for school dropout at ages 17 and 21. Four broad groups of health conditions (any, somatic, mental, and injury) and 25 specific health conditions were assessed from inpatient and outpatient care records at ages 10-16 years. We estimated the immediate and more persistent risks of dropout due to health conditions and calculated population-attributable fractions to quantify the population impact of childhood health on educational dropout, while accounting for a wide array of sociodemographic confounders and comorbidity. RESULTS: Children with any health condition requiring inpatient or outpatient care at ages 10-16 years were more likely to be dropouts at ages 17 years (risk ratio 1.71, 95% CI 1.61-1.81) and 21 years (1.46, 1.37-1.54) following adjustment for individual and family sociodemographic factors. A total of 30% of school dropout was attributable to health conditions at age 17 years and 21% at age 21 years. Mental disorders alone had an attributable fraction of 11% at age 21 years, compared with 5% for both somatic conditions and injuries. Adjusting for the presence of mental disorders reduced the effects of somatic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: More than one fifth of educational dropout is attributable to childhood health conditions. Early-onset mental disorders emerge as key targets in reducing dropout.

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Estimating the population attributable fraction (PAF) of melanomas due to sun exposure is challenging as there are no unexposed population nor reliable exposure data. In high incidence countries, a historic cohort of the South Thames cancer registry was used as a minimally exposed population using the formula PAF = (observed incidence-incidence in minimally exposure)/observed incidence. In this study, we apply this method, constructing a minimally exposed cohort for Colombia and also using the historical South Thames data, using melanoma incidence data from the population-based cancer registry of Cali, Colombia for the period 1967-2012. The historic cohort incidence rates were very similar to those of Thames, but cohort effects were smaller for women and nonexistent for men. Age-specific incidence rates of these minimally exposed cohorts were applied to recent population numbers. For females, PAFs were 19% using the historic Thames cohort and 25% using the historic Cali cohort, corresponding numbers for males were 62% (vs. Thames) and 0% (vs. Cali). Taking into account the incidence rates of acral melanomas, which are not sun related, the PAF increased in women to 26% (vs. Thames) and 34% (vs. Cali) and for men 77% (vs. Thames). This exercise shows the modest contribution of exposure to ultraviolet radiation in the burden of melanoma in low-incidence countries, as well as the importance to take into consideration the acral lentiginous melanomas.

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