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The study aimed to analyze the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality rates in patients with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARD) in Mexico. We selected SARD-related deaths using National Open Data and Information from the Ministry of Health, Mexico, and ICD-10 codes. We assessed the observed compared to the predicted mortality values for 2020 and 2021, employing trends from 2010 to 2019 with joinpoint and prediction modelling analyses. Among 12,742 deaths due to SARD between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) increased significantly between 2010 and 2019 (pre-pandemic) (annual percentage change [APC] 1.1%; 95% CI 0.2-2.1), followed by a non-significant decrease during the pandemic period (APC 13.9%; 95% CI 13.9-5.3). In addition, the observed ASMR of 1.19 for 2020 for SARD and of 1.14 for 2021 were lower than the predicted values of 1.25 (95% CI 1.22-1.28) for 2020 and 1.25 (95% CI 1.20-1.30) for 2021. Similar findings were identified for specific SARD, mainly systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), or by sex or age group. Interestingly, the observed mortality rates for SLE in the Southern region of 1.00 in 2020 and 1.01 in 2021 were both significantly greater than the predicted values of 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77) in 2020 and 0.71 (95% CI 0.63-0.79). In Mexico, the observed SARD mortality rates were not higher than the expected values during the pandemic, except for SLE in the Southern region. No differences by sex or age group were identified.

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BACKGROUND: The performance of severity-of-illness scores varies in different scenarios and must be validated prior of being used in a specific settings and geographic regions. Moreover, models' calibration may deteriorate overtime and performance of such instruments should be reassessed regularly. Therefore, we aimed at to validate the SAPS 3 in a large contemporary cohort of patients admitted to Brazilian ICUs. In addition, we also compared the performance of the SAPS 3 with the MPM0-III. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study in which 48,816 (medical admissions = 67.9%) adult patients are admitted to 72 Brazilian ICUs during 2013. We evaluated models' discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). We applied the calibration belt to evaluate the agreement between observed and expected mortality rates (calibration). RESULTS: Mean SAPS 3 score was 44.3 ± 15.4 points. ICU and hospital mortality rates were 11.0 and 16.5%. We estimated predicted mortality using both standard (SE) and Central and South American (CSA) customized equations. Predicted mortality rates were 16.4 ± 19.3% (SAPS 3-SE), 21.7 ± 23.2% (SAPS 3-CSA) and 14.3 ± 14.0% (MPM0-III). Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) obtained for each model were: 1.00 (95% CI, 0.98-0.102) for the SAPS 3-SE, 0.75 (0.74-0.77) for the SAPS 3-CSA and 1.15 (1.13-1.18) for the MPM0-III. Discrimination was better for SAPS 3 models (AUROC = 0.85) than for MPM0-III (AUROC = 0.80) (p < 0.001). We applied the calibration belt to evaluate the agreement between observed and expected mortality rates (calibration): the SAPS 3-CSA overestimated mortality throughout all risk classes while the MPM0-III underestimated it uniformly. The SAPS 3-SE did not show relevant deviations from ideal calibration. CONCLUSIONS: In a large contemporary database, the SAPS 3-SE was accurate in predicting outcomes, supporting its use for performance evaluation and benchmarking in Brazilian ICUs.

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Introducción. Las leucemias son el cáncer más frecuente durante la infancia. El estudio pretende describir la mortalidad por leucemias en menores de 20 años en México. Material y métodos. A partir del Sistema Estadístico y Epidemiológico de las Defunciones se calcularon tasas específicas por edad, género y entidad federativa. Se estimó la tasa media de mortalidad anual (TMMA) por estado, y la tasa truncada estandarizada por edad de mortalidad. La estandarización fue por el método directo y el error estándar por la aproximación de Poisson, los intervalos de confianza (IC) fueron de 95%. En la elaboración de la razón estandarizada de mortalidad (REM) se utilizó la tasa nacional como referencia. Se calculó la proporción de cambio anual estatal y nacional con IC al 95%, además se estimaron las tendencias nacionales y estatales de 1998 a 2002 por medio de la regresión de Poisson. Resultados. La mortalidad por leucemias representó 51.1%. La razón hombre/mujer fue de 1.3. Los grupos de edad más afectados fueron los de 5-9 y 10-14 años, ambas con TMMA de 27.7 por 10(6) habitantes. La REM para Quintana Roo y Puebla fueron significativas. En cuanto a la tendencia Tlaxcala presentó un incremento y Baja California Sur un decremento, ambos fueron estadísticamente significativos. Conclusiones. La mortalidad por leucemias en menores de 20 años representa un problema de salud pública nacional, por lo que el diagnóstico temprano y tratamiento específico deben ser de alta prioridad.

Introduction. Leukemias are the most frequent form of cancer in childhood and adolescence. This study describes the mortality rate for individuals under 20 years of age with a primary diagnosis of leukemia in Mexico over a 15 year period, from 1988-2002. Material and methods. Specific mortality rates were calculated according to age, gender and state of origin based on data provided by a National Epidemiological Mortality Reporting System (SEED). The median annual mortality rate and age adjusted mortality rate were estimated for each state in Mexico. The direct method was used for standardization and standard error with 95% confidence intervals were also calculated. The national mortality rate was used as a reference to estimate the standardized mortality rate. State annual change and trends were calculated from 1988 to 2002 by Poisson regression. Results. The leukemia mortality rate during the study period was 51.1%; the male/female ratio was 1.3 and the predominant age group ranged from 10 to 14 years of age. The median annual mortality rate of 27.7 per 10(6) inhabitants. Conclusions. Leukemia mortality in children and adolescents under 20 years of age represents a major public health problem in Mexico, early diagnosis and specific treatment must be considered high priority.