RESUMO
Background: One of the main lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic is that we must prepare to face another pandemic like it. Consequently, this article aims to develop a general framework consisting of epidemiological modeling and a practical identifiability approach to assess combined vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies for the dynamics of any transmissible disease. Materials and methods: Epidemiological modeling of the present work relies on delay differential equations describing time variation and transitions between suitable compartments. The practical identifiability approach relies on parameter optimization, a parametric bootstrap technique, and data processing. We implemented a careful parameter optimization algorithm by searching for suitable initialization according to each processed dataset. In addition, we implemented a parametric bootstrap technique to accurately predict the ICU curve trend in the medium term and assess vaccination. Results: We show the framework's calibration capabilities for several processed COVID-19 datasets of different regions of Chile. We found a unique range of parameters that works well for every dataset and provides overall numerical stability and convergence for parameter optimization. Consequently, the framework produces outstanding results concerning quantitative tracking of COVID-19 dynamics. In addition, it allows us to accurately predict the ICU curve trend in the medium term and assess vaccination. Finally, it is reproducible since we provide open-source codes that consider parameter initialization standardized for every dataset. Conclusion: This work attempts to implement a holistic and general modeling framework for quantitative tracking of the dynamics of any transmissible disease, focusing on accurately predicting the ICU curve trend in the medium term and assessing vaccination. The scientific community could adapt it to evaluate the impact of combined vaccination and NPIs strategies for COVID-19 or any transmissible disease in any country and help visualize the potential effects of implemented plans by policymakers. In future work, we want to improve the computational cost of the parametric bootstrap technique or use another more efficient technique. The aim would be to reconstruct epidemiological curves to predict the combined NPIs and vaccination policies' impact on the ICU curve trend in real-time, providing scientific evidence to help anticipate policymakers' decisions.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Pandemias , Chile/epidemiologia , Unidades de Terapia IntensivaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: During 2020, there were no effective treatments or vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. The most common disease contention measures were social distance (social isolation), the use of face masks and lockdowns. In the beginning, numerous countries have succeeded to control and reduce COVID-19 infections at a high economic cost. Thus, to alleviate such side effects, many countries have implemented socioeconomic programs to fund individuals that lost their jobs and to help endangered businesses to survive. METHODS: We assess the role of a socioeconomic program, so-called "Auxilio Emergencial" (AE), during 2020 as a measure to mitigate the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Brazil. For each Brazilian State, we estimate the time-dependent reproduction number from daily reports of COVID-19 infections and deaths using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-like (SEIR-like) model. Then, we analyse the correlations between the reproduction number, the amount of individuals receiving governmental aid, and the index of social isolation based on mobile phone information. RESULTS: We observed significant positive correlation values between the average values by the AE and median values of an index accounting for individual mobility. We also observed significantly negative correlation values between the reproduction number and this index on individual mobility. Using the simulations of a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-like model, if the AE was not operational during the first wave of COVID-19 infections, the accumulated number of infections and deaths could be 6.5 (90% CI: 1.3-21) and 7.9 (90% CI: 1.5-23) times higher, respectively, in comparison with the actual implementation of AE. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the AE implemented in Brazil had a significant influence on social isolation by allowing those in need to stay at home, which would reduce the expected numbers of infections and deaths.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Brasil/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Apoio Financeiro , HumanosRESUMO
The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in quantifying indicators describing diverse aspects of the pandemic. Consequently, this work aims to develop a clear, efficient, and reproducible methodology for parameter optimization, whose implementation is illustrated using data from three representative regions from Chile and a suitable generalized SIR model together with a fitted positivity rate. Our results reproduce the general trend of the infected's curve, distinguishing the reported and real cases. Finally, our methodology is robust, and it allows us to forecast a second outbreak of COVID-19 and the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 qualitatively according to the reported dead cases.