RESUMO
Mathematical models played in a major role in guiding policy decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic. These models while focusing on the spread and containment of the disease, largely ignored the impact of media on the disease transmission. Media plays a major role in shaping opinions, attitudes and perspectives and as the number of people online increases, online media are fast becoming a major source for news and health related information and advice. Consequently, they may influence behavior and in due course disease dynamics. Unlike traditional media, online media are themselves driven and influenced by their users and thus have unique features. The main techniques used to incorporate online media mathematically into compartmental models, with particular reference to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are reviewed. In doing so, features specific to online media that have yet to be fully integrated into compartmental models such as misinformation, different time scales with regards to disease transmission and information, time delays, information super spreaders, the predatory nature of online media and other factors are identified together with recommendations for their incorporation.
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BACKGROUND: Previous research had noted that an affirmative response in patients with diabetes to the question 'Have you ever lost your slipper/flip-flop from your feet while walking and not realised that you have done so'? That is, the presence of the 'slipping slipper sign' (SSS) reflected the presence of severe diabetic peripheral neuropathy with a high degree of precision. The objective of the current study was to determine whether the SSS may also predict the presence of diabetic retinopathy and/or nephropathy since microvascular complications are known to cosegregate. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Among 100 patients with diabetes, including 33 cases with the SSS and 67 controls without the SSS, data on demography, dipstick proteinuria as well as the presence and staging of diabetic retinopathy were obtained. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of all patients was 54.6 (13.0) years, mean duration of diabetes was 12.7 (10.2) years and mean haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) 8.42 (1.95) %; 43% were males. All 33 (100%) of the patients with SSS but only 12 (18%) of the patients without SSS were found to exhibit diabetic retinopathy, p<0.001. Among those patients with retinopathy, proliferative retinopathy was far more likely (39%) in the SSS group compared with non-SSS subjects (8%). Similarly, 15 (46%) with SSS and only 4 (6%) without SSS were found to have dipstick proteinuria. The sensitivity of the SSS for retinopathy was 73% and the specificity was 100% with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 100% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 82%. For proteinuria, both the sensitivity and specificity was 78%. CONCLUSIONS: Both diabetic retinopathy and dipstick proteinuria are strongly associated with the presence of the SSS that therefore holds potential as a tool for easier identification of this high-risk group.
Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/complicações , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/complicações , Neuropatias Diabéticas , Retinopatia Diabética , Proteinúria , Distúrbios Somatossensoriais/diagnóstico , Neuropatias Diabéticas/complicações , Neuropatias Diabéticas/diagnóstico , Neuropatias Diabéticas/fisiopatologia , Retinopatia Diabética/diagnóstico , Retinopatia Diabética/etiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Proteinúria/diagnóstico , Proteinúria/etiologia , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Sensação/fisiologia , Distúrbios Somatossensoriais/etiologia , Distúrbios Somatossensoriais/fisiopatologia , Estatística como Assunto , Avaliação de Sintomas/métodos , Índias OcidentaisRESUMO
The aim of this study was to describe the level and perception of control in severe asthma in Trinidad after the introduction of revised guidelines for asthma management. Adult asthmatics (N = 329) at Trinidad's chest clinics were cross-sectionally examined for guideline-defined disease control. Patients' mean (SD) age was 54.36 (14.9) years, with body mass index = 28.54 (7.4) kg/meter(2), and females were proportionally more (246, 74.74%). Measured (45.29%) and perceived (18.96%) uncontrolled disease were poorly concordant (κ statistic = 0.197). Co-morbidity (≥2 conditions) correlated with uncontrolled disease in 55.80% of patients (Spearman correlation p = 0.03). Absolute peak expiratory flow was higher (p < 0.001) in controlled and/or partially controlled disease than in uncontrolled asthma. Routine work limitation, night-time disturbances, work absenteeism, exacerbations, rescue inhalation and perceived control correlated with uncontrolled asthma (p < 0.001). Few patients self-monitored lung function (9.73%) or kept an asthma diary (6.69%), but 65.1% believed they had to live with their symptoms. The asthma burden was at least one hospitalization (53.80%) and emergency department visit (66.36%) in the past year, cough (74.49%), dyspnoea (84.50%), wheezing (80.55%) and chest tightness (66.87%). After the revised guidelines, uncontrolled asthma and related morbidity remain suboptimal, with disagreeing actual and perceived control. Efforts to transform guidelines into patient care with realistic interpretation of control are recommended.
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Absenteísmo , Antiasmáticos/uso terapêutico , Asma/tratamento farmacológico , Serviço Hospitalar de Emergência/estatística & dados numéricos , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Percepção , Adulto , Idoso , Asma/complicações , Asma/psicologia , Tosse/etiologia , Estudos Transversais , Gerenciamento Clínico , Progressão da Doença , Dispneia/etiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pico do Fluxo Expiratório , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Sons Respiratórios , Autocuidado , Trinidad e TobagoRESUMO
Epidemiological studies of neuromyelitis optica (NMO) in Jamaica are lacking. Here we reviewed the clinical records of 700 patients undergoing neurological evaluation at the Kingston Public Hospital, the largest tertiary institution in Jamaica over a 4 month period. We investigated the diagnostic utility of Aquaporin-4 ImmuneglobulinG (AQP4-IgG) testing in 36 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of an inflammatory demyelinating disorder (IDD) of the central nervous system (CNS). Patients were classified into 3 categories: i) NMO, n=10; ii) multiple sclerosis (MS), n=14 and iii) unclassified IDD (n=12). All sera were tested for AQP-IgG status by cell binding assay (Euroimmun). No MS cases were positive. Ninety per cent of NMO cases were positive. Four of 12 patients with unclassified IDD tested positive for AQP4-IgG. AQP4-IgG seropositivity was associated with a lower socioeconomic status, higher EDSS (P=0.04) and lower pulmonary function than the seronegative cases (P=0.007). Aquaporin-4 autoimmunity may account for a significant proportion of Jamaican CNS IDDs.
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William Osler's comprehensive definition of bronchial asthma as "a neurotic affection characterized by hyperemia and turgescence of the mucosa of the smaller bronchial tubes a peculiar exudate of mucin attacks due to direct irritation of the bronchial mucosa or induced reflexly, by irritation of the nasal mucosa, and indirectly by reflex influences from stomach, intestines or genital organs" has been chiseled away to a chronic inflammatory disorder of the airways [1]. Asthmas sharp climb in developing countries parallels their growing urbanization and westernization, eclipsing its rising prevalence in developed nations. Disease morbidity and mortality is higher in low- and lowermiddle-income countries [101] particularly among the elderly, where atypical presentations and comorbidities render it likely to be underdiagnosed [2]. Common comorbidities associated with frequent exacerbations in difficult-to-treat asthma include hiatus hernia with or without associated gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), rhinosinusitis, recurrent respiratory infections, psychological disturbances and obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) [3,4]. Undiagnosed comorbid disease influences diagnosis, treatment response, disease management and control of asthma.
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Recém-Nascido , Lactente , Pré-Escolar , Criança , Adolescente , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Asma , Comorbidade , Diabetes Mellitus , Obesidade , Doenças Respiratórias , Trinidad e TobagoRESUMO
COPD is prevalent in Western society and its incidence is rising in the developing world. Acute exacerbations of COPD, about 50% of which are unreported, lead to deterioration in quality of life and contribute significantly to disease burden. Quality of life deteriorates with time; thus, most of the health burden occurs in more severe disease. COPD severity and frequent and more severe exacerbations are all related to an increased risk of mortality. Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) have similar effects on quality of life but ICS/long-acting bronchodilator combinations and the long-acting antimuscarinic tiotropium all improve health status and exacerbation rates and are likely to have an effect on mortality but perhaps only with prolonged use. Erythromycin has been shown to decrease the rate of COPD exacerbations. Pulmonary rehabilitation and regular physical activity are indicated in all severities of COPD and improve quality of life. Noninvasive ventilation is associated with improved quality of life. Long-term oxygen therapy improves mortality but only in hypoxic COPD patients. The choice of an inhaler device is a key component of COPD therapy and this requires more attention from physicians than perhaps we are aware of. Disease management programs, characterized as they are by patient centeredness, improve quality of life and decrease hospitalization rates. Most outcomes in COPD can be modified by interventions and these are well tolerated and have acceptable safety profiles.
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Exercício Físico , Nível de Saúde , Oxigenoterapia , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/terapia , Qualidade de Vida , Respiração Artificial , Medicamentos para o Sistema Respiratório/uso terapêutico , Administração por Inalação , Corticosteroides/uso terapêutico , Idoso , Broncodilatadores/uso terapêutico , Terapia Combinada , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Avaliação da Deficiência , Quimioterapia Combinada , Feminino , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Antagonistas Muscarínicos/uso terapêutico , Nebulizadores e Vaporizadores , Oxigenoterapia/economia , Medicina de Precisão , Prevalência , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/diagnóstico , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/economia , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/mortalidade , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/fisiopatologia , Respiração Artificial/economia , Testes de Função Respiratória , Medicamentos para o Sistema Respiratório/administração & dosagem , Medicamentos para o Sistema Respiratório/economia , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Inquéritos e Questionários , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
RATIONALE: Frequent chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations are a major cause of hospital admission and mortality and are associated with increased airway inflammation. Macrolides have airway antiinflammatory actions and may reduce the incidence of COPD exacerbations. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether regular therapy with macrolides reduces exacerbation frequency. METHODS: We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of erythromycin administered at 250 mg twice daily to patients with COPD over 12 months, with primary outcome variable being the number of moderate and/or severe exacerbations (treated with systemic steroids, treated with antibiotics, or hospitalized). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We randomized 109 outpatients: 69 (63%) males, 52 (48%) current smokers, mean (SD) age 67.2 (8.6) years, FEV1 1.32 (0.53) L, FEV1% predicted 50 (18)%. Thirty-eight (35%) of the patients had three or more exacerbations in the year before recruitment, with no differences between treatment groups. There were a total of 206 moderate to severe exacerbations: 125 occurred in the placebo arm. Ten in the placebo group and nine in the macrolide group withdrew. Generalized linear modeling showed that the rate ratio for exacerbations for the macrolide-treated patients compared with placebo-treated patients was 0.648 (95% confidence interval: 0.489, 0.859; P = 0.003) and that these patients had shorter duration exacerbations compared with placebo. There were no differences between the macrolide and placebo arms in terms of stable FEV1, sputum IL-6, IL-8, myeloperoxidase, bacterial flora, serum C-reactive protein, or serum IL-6 or in changes in these parameters from baseline to first exacerbation over the 1-year study period. CONCLUSIONS: Macrolide therapy was associated with a significant reduction in exacerbations compared with placebo and may be useful in decreasing the excessive disease burden in this important patient population. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00147667).
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Antibioticoprofilaxia , Eritromicina/uso terapêutico , Macrolídeos/uso terapêutico , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Idoso , Método Duplo-Cego , Feminino , Volume Expiratório Forçado , Humanos , Inflamação/fisiopatologia , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/microbiologia , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/fisiopatologia , Escarro/microbiologiaRESUMO
Rationale: Exacerbations are key drivers of morbidity and mortality in chronicobstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).Objectives: We compared the relative efficacy of the long-acting inhaledbronchodilator/anti-inflammatory combination (salmeterol/fluticasone propionate) 50/500mcg bd and the long-acting bronchodilator (tiotropium) 18mcg od in preventing exacerbations and related outcomes in moderate severe COPD Methods: 1323 patients (mean age 64yr, forced expiratory volume in 1sec 39 per cent predicted) were randomized in 2-year, double blind, double-dummy, parallel study.Measurements and Main Results: Primary endpoint was healthcare utilization exacerbation rate. Other endpoints included health status measured by St. Georges Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), mortality, adverse events and study withdrawal.Probability of withdrawing from the study was 29 per cent greater with tiotropium than salmeterol/fluticasone propionate (p=0.005). The modelled annual exacerbation rate was 1.28 in the salmeterol/fluticasone propionate group and 1.32 in the tiotropium group (rate ratio 0.967 [95 per cent CI: 0.836 to 1.119]; p=0.656). The SGRQ total score was statistically significantly lower at 2 years on salmeterol/fluticasone propionateversus tiotropium (difference 2.1 units, 95 per cent CI: 0.1 to 4.0, p=0.038). Mortality was significantly lower in the salmeterol/fluticasone propionate group; 21 (3 per cent of patients in this group died compared to 38 (6 per cent) in the tiotropium group (p=0.032). Morepneumonias were reported in the salmeterol/fluticasone propionate group relative to tiotropium (p=0.008).Conclusions: We found no difference in exacerbation rate between salmeterol/fluticasone propionate and tiotropium. More patients failed to complete the study receiving tiotropium. A small statistically significant beneficial effect was found on health status, with an unexpected finding of lower deaths in salmeterol/fluticasone propionate treated patients.
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Humanos , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica , Mortalidade , Nível de SaúdeRESUMO
Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are episodes of worsening of symptoms, leading to substantial morbidity and mortality. COPD exacerbations are associated with increased airway and systemic inflammation and physiological changes, especially the development of hyperinflation. They are triggered mainly by respiratory viruses and bacteria, which infect the lower airway and increase airway inflammation. Some patients are particularly susceptible to exacerbations, and show worse health status and faster disease progression than those who have infrequent exacerbations. Several pharmacological interventions are effective for the reduction of exacerbation frequency and severity in COPD such as inhaled steroids, long-acting bronchodilators, and their combinations. Non-pharmacological therapies such as pulmonary rehabilitation, self-management, and home ventilatory support are becoming increasingly important, but still need to be studied in controlled trials. The future of exacerbation prevention is in assessment of optimum combinations of pharmacological and non-pharmacological therapies that will result in improvement of health status, and reduction of hospital admission and mortality associated with COPD.
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Humanos , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica , Mortalidade , Nível de Saúde , Trinidad e TobagoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Although recent studies have found that total plasma homocysteine (tHCY) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are both risk factors for cardiac disease, there have been few studies of plasma homocysteine levels in COPD patients. We tested the hypothesis that total plasma homocysteine (tHCY) would be elevated in patients diagnosed with COPD compared with controls. METHODS: We studied 29 COPD outpatients and 25 asymptomatic subjects (controls) over age 55 years with measurement of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), St. Georges Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score, tHCY and serum C-reactive protein (sCRP). RESULTS: There was no difference between controls vs. COPD patients in mean age or gender but mean (SD) FEV1 was 2.25 (0.77) vs. 1.43 (0.60) L; FEV1% predicted 76.1 (17.2) vs. 49.1 (16.3) p < 0.001 in both cases. Median (IQR) tHCY was 8.22 (6.63, 9.55) in controls vs. 10.96 (7.56, 13.60) micromol/l for COPD, p = 0.006 and sCRP 0.89 (0.47, 2.55) vs. 2.05 (0.86, 6.19) mg/l, p = 0.023. tHCY(log) was also higher in (r, p) smokers (0.448, 0.001), patients with low FEV1% (-0.397, 0.003), males (0.475, < 0.001), but high SGRQ Total score (0.289, 0.034), and high sCRP (0.316, 0.038). tHCY(log) was independently related to (regression coefficient, p) sCRP(log) (0.087, 0.024), male gender (0.345, < 0.001) and presence of COPD (0.194, 0.031). Median (IQR) tHCY GOLD Stage I and II 8.05 (7.28, 11.04), GOLD Stage III and IV: 11.83 (9.30, 18.30); p = 0.023. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma homocysteine is significantly elevated in COPD patients relative to age and sex-matched controls and is related to serum CRP and COPD severity.
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Homocisteína/análise , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/fisiopatologia , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Idoso , Comportamento Alimentar , Feminino , Volume Expiratório Forçado , Homocisteína/sangue , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Qualidade de Vida , Espirometria , Inquéritos e Questionários , Trinidad e TobagoRESUMO
Study objective: Patients with COPD experience lower airway and systemic inflammation, and an accelerated decline in FEV. There is no evidence on whether this inflammation changes over time, or if it is associated with a faster decline FEV. Patient and design: a cohort of 148 COPD patients (100 men) was monitored daily for a median 2.9 years (interquartile range [IQR], 2.1 to 4.8). At recruitment median age was 68.5 years (IQR, 62.5 to 73.6) and FEV as percentage of predicted (FEV percent Pred) was 38.5 percent (IQR, 27.7 to 50.3). Results: During the study, the patients experienced 1,389 exacerbations, a median of 2.52/yr (IQR 1.48 to 3.96) and FEV declined by 40.2 mL/yr or as FEV percent Pred by 1.5 percent/yr. Concerning inflammatory markers, sputum interlukin (IL)-6 rose by 9 pg/mL, sputum neutrophil count rose by 1.64 x 10,000,000 cells per gram sputum per year, and plasma fibrinogen rose by 0.10 g/L/yr (all p, 0.05). Patients with frequent exacerbations (less than or equal to 2.52/yr) had a faster rise over time in plasma fibrinogen and sputum IL-6 of 0.063 g/L/yr (p= 0.046, n= 130) and 29.5 pg/mL/yr (p< 0.001, n=98), respectively, compared to patients with infrequent exacerbations (<2.52/yr). Using the earliest stable (nonexacerbation) measured marker, patients whose IL-6 exceeded the group median had a faster FEV percentPred decline of 0.97 percent/yr (p=0.001 and .40 percent/yr (p=0.014). respectively. Conclusions: In COPD, airway and systemic inflammatory markers increase over time; high levels of these markers are associated with a faster decline in lung function (AU)
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Humanos , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/complicações , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/diagnóstico , Biomarcadores/análise , Testes de Função RespiratóriaRESUMO
Treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations improves outcomes; however, responses to treatment are variable, and patients with COPD often delay presentation or fail to seek therapy. The impact on exacerbation outcomes, hospitalization, and health status of delaying or failing to seek treatment is poorly understood. We studied between 1996 and 2002 a cohort of 128 patients with COPD, mean (SD) FEV1 of 1.07 (0.43) L. Patients recorded respiratory symptoms daily and reported exacerbations to the outpatient-based study team or to their primary care physician; 1,099 exacerbations were recorded by the patients, of which 658 were reported to a physician. The time between exacerbation onset and treatment was a median (interquartile range) of 3.69 (2.05.57) days, and the exacerbation recovery time was 10.7 (7.014.0) days. Earlier treatment was associated with a faster recovery (regression coefficient 0.42 days/day delay) (confidence interval, 0.190.65; p < 0.001). Patients who reported a higher proportion of exacerbations for treatment had better health-related quality of life than those patients with more untreated exacerbations (rho = 0.22, p = 0.018). Failure to report exacerbations was associated with an increased risk of emergency hospitalization (rho = 0.21, p = 0.04). Patient recognition of exacerbation symptoms and prompt treatment improves exacerbation recovery, reduces risks of hospitalization, and is associated with a better health-related quality of life