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INTRODUCTION: Zika virus (ZIKV) is primarily transmitted byAedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes between humans and non-human primates. Climate change may enhance virus reproduction in Aedes spp. mosquito populations, resulting in intensified ZIKV outbreaks. The study objective was to explore how an outbreak similar to the 2016 ZIKV outbreak in Brazil might unfold with projected climate change. METHODS: A compartmental infectious disease model that included compartments for humans and mosquitoes was developed to fit the 2016 ZIKV outbreak data from Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, published polynomial relationships between temperature and temperature-sensitive mosquito population and virus transmission parameters (mosquito mortality, development rate, and ZIKV extrinsic incubation period) were used. Projections for future outbreaks were obtained by simulating transmission with effects of projected average monthly temperatures on temperature-sensitive model parameters at each of three future time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The projected future climate was obtained from an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) obtained from the Co-Ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) that used Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) with two radiative forcing values, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the impact of temperature-dependent parameters on the model outcomes. RESULTS: Climate change scenarios impacted the model outcomes, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the duration of the ZIKV outbreak. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP4.5, the peak incidence was 22,030 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 12 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 52 compared to 41 weeks. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP8.5, the peak incidence was 21,786 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 11 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 50 compared to 41weeks. The increases are due to optimal climate conditions for mosquitoes, with the mean temperature reaching 28 °C in the warmest months. Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), mean temperatures extend above optimal for mosquito survival in the warmest months. CONCLUSION: Outbreaks of ZIKV in locations similar to Brazil are expected to be more intense with a warming climate. As climate change impacts are becoming increasingly apparent on human health, it is important to quantify the effect and use this knowledge to inform decisions on prevention and control strategies.

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INTRODUCTION: Yellow fever (YF) is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes. Under climate change, mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster, potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate, using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods: 2011-2040 (short-term), 2041-2070 (mid-term), and 2071-2100 (long-term). METHODS: A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results, and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil. RESULTS: Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the outbreak duration. Overall, a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed. Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070-2100, for RCP4.5, the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks. For RCP8.5, the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks. The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival. CONCLUSIONS: Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases. We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil; however, temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission. Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases.

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Surgical sterilization programs for dogs have been proposed as interventions to control dog population size. Models can be used to help identify the long-term impact of reproduction control interventions for dogs. The objective of this study was to determine the projected impact of surgical sterilization interventions on the owned dog population size in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. A stochastic, individual-based simulation model was constructed and parameterized using a combination of empirical data collected on the demographics of owned dogs in Villa de Tezontepec and data available from the peer-reviewed literature. Model outcomes were assessed using a 20-year time horizon. The model was used to examine: the effect of surgical sterilization strategies focused on: 1) dogs of any age and sex, 2) female dogs of any age, 3) young dogs (i.e., not yet reached sexual maturity) of any sex, and 4) young, female dogs. Model outcomes suggested that as surgical capacity increases from 21 to 84 surgeries/month, (8.6% to 34.5% annual sterilization) for dogs of any age, the mean dog population size after 20 years was reduced between 14% and 79% compared to the base case scenario (i.e. in the absence of intervention). Surgical sterilization interventions focused only on young dogs of any sex yielded greater reductions (81% - 90%) in the mean population size, depending on the level of surgical capacity. More focused sterilization targeted at female dogs of any age, resulted in reductions that were similar to focusing on mixed sex sterilization of only young dogs (82% - 92%). The greatest mean reduction in population size (90% - 91%) was associated with sterilization of only young, female dogs. Our model suggests that targeting sterilization to young females could enhance the efficacy of existing surgical dog population control interventions in this location, without investing extra resources.

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Dog overpopulation in developing countries has negative implications for the health and safety of people, including the transmission of zoonotic diseases, physical attacks and intimidation to humans and animals, as well as impacts on canine welfare. Understanding the ecology and demographic characteristics of a dog population can help in the planning and monitoring of canine population control programs. Little data exist regarding demography and dynamics of domestic dog populations in semi-urban areas in Mexico. A cross-sectional study was carried out between October 21 and November 7, 2015, to characterize the dog ecology and demography in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. A face-to-face survey was used to collect data from randomly selected households in four contiguous communities using stratified two-stage cluster sampling. Within each household, adults answered questions related to their dogs and their experiences with dog bites and aggression. A total of 328 households were interviewed, representing a participation rate of 90.9% (328/361) and 1,450 people. Approximately 65.2% of the households owned one or more dogs, with a mean of 1.3 (SD=1.5) and 2.0 (SD=1.5) owned dogs in all participant households and dog-owning households, respectively. The human: owned dog ratio for all participant households was 3.4:1 (1450/428), and for the dog-owning households was 2.3:1 (984/428). The owned dog male: female ratio was 1.4:1 (249/179). Approximately 74.4% (95.0% CI=69.8% - 78.7%) of the owned dogs were older than one year (mean age: 2.9 years; SD=2.5). The mean age of owned female dogs at first litter was 1.9 years (SD=1.2) and the mean litter size was 4.2 puppies (SD=2.1). Approximately 36.9% (95.0% CI=31.8% - 46.4%) of the females were spayed, and 14.1% (95.0% CI=10.7% - 19.7%) of the males were neutered. Only 44.9% (95.0% CI=40.1% - 49.7%) were always confined when unsupervised. Approximately 84.4% (95.0% CI=80.6% - 87.7%) were reported to have been vaccinated against rabies in 2015. The knowledge of owned dog demography and ecology provided by this study can inform local government planning of dog population control interventions, and could serve as a baseline for the development of agent-based models to evaluate the effects of different dog population control strategies on dog demography.

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OBJECTIVE: To compare knowledge, attitudes, and risks related to pet contact in households with and without immunocompromised children. STUDY DESIGN: A questionnaire was distributed to parents of children diagnosed with cancer (immunocompromised; n=80) or diabetes (immunocompetent; n=251) receiving care at the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario. Information was collected on knowledge of pets as sources of disease, concerns regarding pet-derived pathogens, and pet ownership practices. Data were analyzed with multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: The questionnaire was completed by 65% (214 of 331) of the individuals to whom it was given. Pet ownership was common; 45% of respondents had a household pet when their child was diagnosed, and many (households with a child with diabetes, 49%; households with a child with cancer, 20%) acquired a new pet after diagnosis. Most households that obtained a new pet had acquired a pet considered high risk for infectious disease based on species/age (diabetes, 73%; cancer, 77%). Parents of children with cancer were more likely than parents of children with diabetes to recall being asked by a physician/staff member if they owned a pet (OR, 5.9) or to recall receiving zoonotic disease information (OR, 5.3), yet these interactions were reported uncommonly (diabetes, ≤13%; cancer, ≤48%). Greater knowledge of pet-associated pathogens was associated with recalled receipt of previous education on this topic (OR, 3.9). Pet exposure outside the home was reported frequently for children in non-pet-owning households (diabetes, 48%; cancer, 25%). CONCLUSION: Improved zoonotic disease education is needed for pet-owning and non-pet-owning households with immunocompromised children, with ongoing provision of information while the children are at increased risk of disease. Additional efforts from pediatric and veterinary healthcare professionals are required.

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BACKGROUND: Lack of access to safe and secure water is an international issue recognized by the United Nations. To address this problem, the One Million Cisterns Project was initiated in 2001 in Brazil's semi-arid region to provide a sustainable source of water to households. The objectives of this study were to determine the 30-day period prevalence of diarrhoea in individuals with and without cisterns and determine symptomology, duration of illness and type of health care sought among those with diarrhoea. A subgroup analysis was also conducted among children less than five years old. METHODS: A face-to-face survey was conducted between August 20th and September 20th, 2007 in the Agreste Central Region of Pernambuco State, Brazil. Households with and without a cistern that had at least one child under the age of five years were selected using systematic convenient sampling. Differences in health outcomes between groups were assessed using Pearson's Chi-squared and two-way t-tests. Demographic variables were tested for univariable associations with diarrhoea using logistic regression with random effects. P-values of 0.05 or less were considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 3679 people from 774 households were included in the analysis (1863 people from 377 households with cisterns and 1816 people from 397 households without cisterns). People from households with a cistern had a significantly lower 30-day period prevalence of diarrhoea (prevalence = 11.0%; 95% CI 9.5-12.4) than people from households without a cistern (prevalence = 18.2%; 95% CI 16.4-20.0). This significant difference was also found in a subgroup analysis of children under five years old; those children with a cistern had a 30-day period prevalence of 15.6% (95% CI 12.3-18.9) versus 26.7% (95% CI 22.8-30.6) in children without a cistern. There were no significant differences between those people with and without cisterns in terms of the types of symptoms, duration of illness and health care sought for diarrhoea. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the use of cisterns for drinking water is associated with a decreased occurrence of diarrhoea in this study population. Further research accounting for additional risk factors and preventative factors should be conducted.

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