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Zika virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate.
Sadeghieh, Tara; Sargeant, Jan M; Greer, Amy L; Berke, Olaf; Dueymes, Guillaume; Gachon, Philippe; Ogden, Nicholas H; Ng, Victoria.
Afiliação
  • Sadeghieh T; Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontari
  • Sargeant JM; Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
  • Greer AL; Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
  • Berke O; Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Centre for Public Health and Zoonoses, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
  • Dueymes G; ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Québec, Canada.
  • Gachon P; ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, Université du Québec à Montréal, Québec, Canada.
  • Ogden NH; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario and St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada.
  • Ng V; Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario and St. Hyacinthe, Québec, Canada.
Epidemics ; 37: 100491, 2021 12.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34454353
INTRODUCTION: Zika virus (ZIKV) is primarily transmitted byAedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes between humans and non-human primates. Climate change may enhance virus reproduction in Aedes spp. mosquito populations, resulting in intensified ZIKV outbreaks. The study objective was to explore how an outbreak similar to the 2016 ZIKV outbreak in Brazil might unfold with projected climate change. METHODS: A compartmental infectious disease model that included compartments for humans and mosquitoes was developed to fit the 2016 ZIKV outbreak data from Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, published polynomial relationships between temperature and temperature-sensitive mosquito population and virus transmission parameters (mosquito mortality, development rate, and ZIKV extrinsic incubation period) were used. Projections for future outbreaks were obtained by simulating transmission with effects of projected average monthly temperatures on temperature-sensitive model parameters at each of three future time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The projected future climate was obtained from an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) obtained from the Co-Ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) that used Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) with two radiative forcing values, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. A sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the impact of temperature-dependent parameters on the model outcomes. RESULTS: Climate change scenarios impacted the model outcomes, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the duration of the ZIKV outbreak. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP4.5, the peak incidence was 22,030 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 12 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 52 compared to 41 weeks. Comparing 2070-2100 to 2016, using RCP8.5, the peak incidence was 21,786 compared to 10,473; the time to epidemic peak was 11 compared to 9 weeks, and the outbreak duration was 50 compared to 41weeks. The increases are due to optimal climate conditions for mosquitoes, with the mean temperature reaching 28 °C in the warmest months. Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), mean temperatures extend above optimal for mosquito survival in the warmest months. CONCLUSION: Outbreaks of ZIKV in locations similar to Brazil are expected to be more intense with a warming climate. As climate change impacts are becoming increasingly apparent on human health, it is important to quantify the effect and use this knowledge to inform decisions on prevention and control strategies.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Aedes / Zika virus / Infecção por Zika virus Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies Limite: Animals País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Epidemics Ano de publicação: 2021 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Holanda

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Aedes / Zika virus / Infecção por Zika virus Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies Limite: Animals País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Epidemics Ano de publicação: 2021 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Holanda