RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To update the current evidence on the malignant transformation of oral leukoplakia (OL), including all studies published worldwide on the subject, selected with the maximum rigor regarding eligibility. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and Scopus were searched for studies published before June-2024, with no lower date limit. The risk of bias was analyzed using the Joanna Briggs Institute tool for meta-analyses of proportions. We carried out meta-analyses, explored heterogeneity across subgroups and identified risk factors with potential prognostic value. RESULTS: Fifty-five studies (41,231 with OL) were included. The pooled malignant transformation proportion for OL was 6.64% (95% CI = 5.21-8.21). The malignant transformation did not significantly vary by time periods (p = 0.75), 5.35% prior to 1978, 7.06% from 1979 to 2007 and 6.97% during more recent times. The risk factors that significantly had a higher impact on malignant transformation were the non-homogeneous leukoplakias (RR = 4.23, 95% CI = 3.31-5.39, p < 0.001), the larger size (RR = 2.08, 1.45-2.96, p < 0.001), leukoplakia located on the lateral border of tongue (malignant transformation = 12.71%; RR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.48-2.95, p < 0.001), smoking (RR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.25-2.15, p < 0.001), and the presence of epithelial dysplasia (RR = 2.75, 95% CI = 2.26-3.35, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: OL presents a considerable malignant transformation probability that is especially increased in large non-homogeneous lesions in smokers, located on the lateral border of the tongue, with epithelial dysplasia.