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Background: The collection of insects of medical importance from the Instituto Nacional de Salud, INS (Bogotá, Colombia: https://www.ins.gov.co/Paginas/Inicio.aspx), was started in 1934 with the aim of being an institutional and national repository of the biodiversity of insects involved in vector-borne diseases of importance in public health. Today, the entomological collection includes more than 7,500 specimens.The ceratopogonid insects are one group of Diptera that are represented in this collection. Within the Ceratopogonidae, the genus Culicoides Latreille, 1809 is relevant in public health because of the nuisance caused by their bites when they are presented in great abundance and because of their role as vectors of several agents (virus, protozoa and nematodes) that cause diseases to humans and to animals (Mellor et al. 2000, Mullen 2002). An overview of the Ceratopogonidae, represented in this collection, is presented here. A total of 801 individuals, mainly adults of the genus Culicoides (90%) are represented. The collection is the result of the effort of several researchers of the Group of Entomology at INS. These researchers collected ceratopogonids when they went to different transmission scenarios of vector-borne diseases in Colombia, with the purpose of making entomological characterisations including the processing, assembly and identification of the specimens in the laboratory. New information: New information about the geographical distribution of 39 species of the genus Culicoides in Colombia. All data have been uploaded to GBIF and are publicly available there.

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Background: This paper describes two datasets: species occurrences, which were determined by environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding and their associated DNA sequences, originating from a research project which was carried out along the Houdong River (), Jiaoxi Township, Yilan, Taiwan. The Houdong River begins at an elevation of 860 m and flows for approximately 9 km before it empties into the Pacific Ocean. Meandering through mountains, hills, plains and alluvial valleys, this short river system is representative of the fluvial systems in Taiwan. The primary objective of this study was to determine eukaryotic species occurrences in the riverine ecosystem through the use of the eDNA analysis. The second goal was, based on the current dataset, to establish a metabarcoding eDNA data template that will be useful and replicable for all users, particularly the Taiwan community. The species occurrence data are accessible at the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) portal and its associated DNA sequences have been deposited in the European Nucleotide Archive (ENA) at EMBL-EBI, respectively. A total of 12 water samples from the study yielded an average of 1.5 million reads. The subsequent species identification from the collected samples resulted in the classification of 432 Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) out of a total of 2,734. Furthermore, a total of 1,356 occurrences with taxon matches in GBIF were documented (excluding 4,941 incertae sedis, accessed 05-12-2023). These data will be of substantial importance for future species and habitat monitoring within the short river, such as assessment of biodiversity patterns across different elevations, zonations and time periods and its correlation to water quality, land uses and anthropogenic activities. Further, these datasets will be of importance for regional ecological studies, in particular the freshwater ecosystem and its status in the current global change scenarios. New information: The datasets are the first species diversity description of the Houdong River system using either eDNA or traditional monitoring processes.

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Understanding how human-modified landscapes maintain biodiversity and provide ecosystem services is crucial for establishing conservation practices. Given that responses to land-use are species-specific, it is crucial to understand how land-use changes may shape patterns of species diversity and persistence in human-modified landscapes. Here, we used a comprehensive data set on bird distribution from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to understand how species richness and individual occurrences of frugivorous bird species responded to land-use spatial predictors and, subsequently, assess how ecological traits and phylogeny modulated these responses. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we reveal that the richness of frugivorous birds was positively associated with the amount of native forest and negatively with both agriculture and pasture amount at the landscape scale. Conversely, the effect of these predictors on species occurrence and ecological traits was highly variable and presented a weak phylogenetic signal. Furthermore, land-use homogenization (i.e., the conversion of forest to pasture or agriculture) led to pervasive consequences for forest-dependent bird species, whereas several generalist species thrived in deforested areas, replacing those sensitive to habitat disturbances.

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Garra cambodgiensis (stonelapping minnow) has experienced significant population declines, prompting intensive research and management, although its distribution in river systems such as the Mekong remains obscure. Effective conservation and management necessitate accurate monitoring and survey data on the distribution of freshwater species. Traditional surveying techniques for fish may be challenging and generate insufficient data on species distribution. This study developed an eDNA-based method for detecting G. cambodgiensis to address this void. Twenty-one locations were surveyed. Water samples were collected in triplicate from the river's surface at each site and processed within 48 h in a dedicated laboratory. Primers and probes for G. cambodgiensis were meticulously designed and species-specificity tested to ensure accurate detection without interference from co-occurring species in the same geographic range. Each water sample was analysed by qPCR using six technical replicates. The results of qPCR were reported as positive with quantifiable eDNA concentration (copies/mL), below the limit of quantification, or non-detectable. G. cambodgiensis eDNA was detected in water samples collected from 10 out of 21 sampling sites, with concentrations ranging from 8.5 to 2990.0 copies/mL. Importantly, G. cambodgiensis eDNA was consistently detected in all three replicate water samples at each site where the qPCR experiment yielded positive results. The findings of this study demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of incorporating eDNA-based monitoring or surveys for G. cambodgiensis in the ecologically diverse Mekong River. Monitoring based on eDNA can aid in targeting and informing conservation and management of G. cambodgiensis in its natural habitat. Comprehensive and robust information on species distribution can be obtained via an eDNA-based survey, which could contribute to more efficient and informed decision-making processes in fisheries management and conservation efforts.

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COVID-19, a global health concern, has an effect on all aspects of the economy. The aquaculture and fishing industries were severely harmed as a result of the closures in multiple nations. Regular systems for inventory monitoring, production, and supply were disrupted. Cancellation of programmes for research, fieldwork, sampling, and tagging influences management-required data. For effective species management, fish dispersion assessments are indispensable. However, due to the difficulty of accessing sampling sites and the associated costs, there is frequently a lack of comprehensive information regarding the distribution and abundance of organisms. The COVID-19 prohibition made fish monitoring more problematic. Due to constant pressure, populations of the stone lapping minnow (Garra cambodgiensis), one of Thailand's overfished fish, are rapidly declining. Therefore, eDNA-based monitoring was devised and implemented to reveal the likely dispersal of the species in Thailand prior to and following the lockdown. At 28 locations within the Chao Phraya River Basin, water samples were collected. qPCR was used to determine the presence or absence of G. cambodgiensis in water samples. In 78 of 252 water samples, a wide range of computed copy numbers for G. cambodgiensis eDNA was observed. It was discovered that samples collected in 2021 (after the lockdown) contain a higher concentration of G. cambodgiensis eDNA than samples collected in 2018 or 2019 (prior to the lockdown). The closure appears to be a boon and may result in a substantial restocking of the fish we have studied. Overall, eDNA-based analysis is an extremely promising new survey instrument.

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In this paper, based on fieldwork and herbaria surveys, new data concerning the presence of 32 native and alien vascular species for Sicily (Italy) are provided. Among the native species, the occurrence of the following taxa is reported for the first time or confirmed after many decades of non-observation: Aira multiculmis, Arum maculatum, Carex flacca subsp. flacca, Mentha longifolia, Oxybasis chenopodioides, Najas minor and Xiphion junceum. Furthermore, we document the presence of three native species (Cornus mas, Juncus foliosus and Limonium avei) that, despite being repeatedly observed in Sicily and reported in the literature, are inexplicably omitted by the most recent authoritative checklists regarding the flora of Italy. Finally, fifteen alien species new to Sicily (including one new to Europe, i.e., Pyrus betulifolia) are reported and seven poorly documented allochthonous taxa are confirmed for the island, and for two of them, a status change is proposed. These new or confirmed records allow us to better define the European and national distribution of the targeted taxa and offer new insights on the native and alien flora of Sicily.

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BACKGROUND: The Living Atlas is an open source platform used to collect, visualise and analyse biodiversity data from multiple sources, and serves as the national biodiversity data hub in many countries. Although powerful, the Living Atlas has had limited functionality for species occurrence data derived from DNA sequences. As a step toward integrating this fast-growing data source into the platform, we developed the Amplicon Sequence Variant (ASV) portal: a web interface to sequence-based biodiversity observations in the Living Atlas. RESULTS: The ASV portal allows data providers to submit denoised metabarcoding output to the Living Atlas platform via an intermediary ASV database. It also enables users to search for existing ASVs and associated Living Atlas records using the Basic Local Alignment Search Tool, or via filters on taxonomy and sequencing details. The ASV portal is a Python-Flask/jQuery web interface, implemented as a multi-container docker service, and is an integral part of the Swedish Biodiversity Data Infrastructure. CONCLUSION: The ASV portal is a web interface that effectively integrates biodiversity data derived from DNA sequences into the Living Atlas platform.

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Aggregated species occurrence and abundance data from disparate sources are increasingly accessible to ecologists for the analysis of temporal trends in biodiversity. However, sampling biases relevant to any given research question are often poorly explored and infrequently reported; this can undermine statistical inference. In other disciplines, it is common for researchers to complete 'risk-of-bias' assessments to expose and document the potential for biases to undermine conclusions. The huge growth in available data, and recent controversies surrounding their use to infer temporal trends, indicate that similar assessments are urgently needed in ecology.We introduce ROBITT, a structured tool for assessing the 'Risk-Of-Bias In studies of Temporal Trends in ecology'. ROBITT has a similar format to its counterparts in other disciplines: it comprises signalling questions designed to elicit information on the potential for bias in key study domains. In answering these, users will define study inferential goal(s) and relevant statistical target populations. This information is used to assess potential sampling biases across domains relevant to the research question (e.g. geography, taxonomy, environment), and how these vary through time. If assessments indicate biases, then users must clearly describe them and/or explain what mitigating action will be taken.Everything that users need to complete a ROBITT assessment is provided: the tool, a guidance document and a worked example. Following other disciplines, the tool and guidance document were developed through a consensus-forming process across experts working in relevant areas of ecology and evidence synthesis.We propose that researchers should be strongly encouraged to include a ROBITT assessment when publishing studies of biodiversity trends, especially when using aggregated data. This will help researchers to structure their thinking, clearly acknowledge potential sampling issues, highlight where expert consultation is required and provide an opportunity to describe data checks that might go unreported. ROBITT will also enable reviewers, editors and readers to establish how well research conclusions are supported given a dataset combined with some analytical approach. In turn, it should strengthen evidence-based policy and practice, reduce differing interpretations of data and provide a clearer picture of the uncertainties associated with our understanding of reality.

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Background: West Siberia is a large region in North Eurasia, which harbours multiple climatic zones, landscape types and biomes. Its amphibian fauna is characterised by a combination of European and Asian species. For many species, this region is the place where the limits of their global ranges are located (Ranatemporaria, R.amurensis, Bufotessitibundus). West Siberia also has at least two non-native amphibian species (Pelophylaxridibundus, Bufotesviridis). The exact ranges and patterns of distribution of the West Siberian amphibian species are poorly studied. The mapping of species ranges is important for the development of conservation measures and monitoring of invasive species is required to investigate their impacts on the natural ecosystems. New information: This work presents the most complete biogeographic and occurrence records database of the amphibians of West Siberia. To assemble the database, we digitised data from 190 published works, obtained data from major museum collections and from the data bank on the abundance and distribution of animals «Zoomonitor¼ by the Zoomonitoring laboratory of the Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences. The database also includes original and partly unpublished data collected by the authors from 1975 to 2021, as well as quality-assessed citizen science data from the iNaturalist portal. In total, the database contains 2530 records for 11 species of amphibians, including the locality data, the observation date (when known) and the source of the observation (at least one of the following: literature reference, museum sample ID, observer's name, iNaturalist link).

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Although rice production landscapes are often the scene of homicides, vertebrate decomposition and associated arthropods have never been described from rice paddies. Tropical rice landscapes are typically composed of irrigated/non-irrigated rice fields, fallow land (i.e., uncultivated fields), and low earthen levees (bunds) used as access pathways. The specific microclimatic and environmental conditions associated with each subunit of rice field landscapes are likely to impact carcass decomposition as well as the arthropod species associated with carrion. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the combined effects of constraints on arthropod colonization and survival, scarcity of necromass, limited habitat architecture, and recurrent disturbance limit the ability of carrion-related arthropods to colonize corpses and large carcasses in tropical rice-fields. Our results from monitoring pig carcasses in Philippine rice fields indicated that vertebrate decomposition in irrigated fields was slower and incomplete when compared to non-irrigated fields and bunds. Carcasses were colonized by a small complex of carrion-related arthropods that differed in composition and relative species abundance between dry bunds and relatively humid rice paddies. Fire ants (Solenopsis germinata) were observed frequently on carcasses exposed on bunds, rarely in non-irrigated fields, and almost never in irrigated fields. The presence of fire ants was associated with reduced blow fly (Chrysomya megacephala) abundance. Taken together, this indicates that the arthropod fauna associated with carcasses in tropical rice fields is relatively simple in contrast to the generally high arthropod diversity reported for other ecosystems at tropical latitudes. The limited richness of the community also means that an understanding of the development of one abundant calliphorid blow fly, C. megacephala, may be sufficient to investigate deaths and homicides under conditions similar to the ones described in this study.

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Climate change can not only increase the exposure of organisms to higher temperatures but can also drive phenological shifts that alter their susceptibility to conditions at the onset of breeding cycles. Organisms rely on climatic cues to time annual life cycle events, but the extent to which climate change has altered cue reliability remains unclear. Here, we examined the risk of a "climate trap"-a climatically driven desynchronization of the cues that determine life cycle events and fitness later in the season in a temperate reptile, the European adder (Vipera berus). During the winter, adders hibernate underground, buffered against subzero temperatures, and re-emerge in the spring to reproduce. We derived annual spring-emergence trends between 1983 and 2017 from historical observations in Cornwall, UK, and related these trends to the microclimatic conditions that adders experienced. Using a mechanistic microclimate model, we computed below- and near-ground temperatures to derive accumulated degree-hour and absolute temperature thresholds that predicted annual spring-emergence timing. Trends in annual-emergence timing and subsequent exposure to ground frost were then quantified. We found that adders have advanced their phenology toward earlier emergence. Earlier emergence was associated with increased exposure to ground frost and, contradicting the expected effects of macroclimate warming, increased post-emergence exposure to ground frost at some locations. The susceptibility of adders to this "climate trap" was related to the rate at which frost risk diminishes relative to advancement in phenology, which depends on the seasonality of climate. We emphasize the need to consider exposure to changing microclimatic conditions when forecasting biological impacts of climate change.

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Ants, an ecologically successful and numerically dominant group of animals, play key ecological roles as soil engineers, predators, nutrient recyclers, and regulators of plant growth and reproduction in most terrestrial ecosystems. Further, ants are widely used as bioindicators of the ecological impact of land use. We gathered information of ant species in the Atlantic Forest of South America. The ATLANTIC ANTS data set, which is part of the ATLANTIC SERIES data papers, is a compilation of ant records from collections (18,713 records), unpublished data (29,651 records), and published sources (106,910 records; 1,059 references), including papers, theses, dissertations, and book chapters published from 1886 to 2020. In total, the data set contains 153,818 ant records from 7,636 study locations in the Atlantic Forest, representing 10 subfamilies, 99 genera, 1,114 ant species identified with updated taxonomic certainty, and 2,235 morphospecies codes. Our data set reflects the heterogeneity in ant records, which include ants sampled at the beginning of the taxonomic history of myrmecology (the 19th and 20th centuries) and more recent ant surveys designed to address specific questions in ecology and biology. The data set can be used by researchers to develop strategies to deal with different macroecological and region-wide questions, focusing on assemblages, species occurrences, and distribution patterns. Furthermore, the data can be used to assess the consequences of changes in land use in the Atlantic Forest on different ecological processes. No copyright restrictions apply to the use of this data set, but we request that authors cite this data paper when using these data in publications or teaching events.

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We investigated how the potential distribution of Histiotus velatus is affected by the addition of new records over decades (decade effect). Assuming that (1: hypothesis of the effect of the decade) the addition of new occurrence records over time increases the potential size of the species distribution; and (2: Wallacean distance hypothesis) over the years, the new points added are increasingly distant from the research centers. Considering the geographic knowledge gap of this species, our objective is to report a new record of this species and estimate its potential distribution in South America through environment niche models (ENMs). For this, we compiled records of occurrence of species, selected from 1900 to 2015. We used 19 bioclimatic variables available in the WorldClim database to estimate the potential distribution of the species, and we used three modeling algorithms: Maximum Entropy (MXT), Random Forest (RDF), and Support Vector Machine. To test the Wallacean distance hypothesis, we calculated the Euclidian distance from occurrences to bat research centers in Brazil, located using a national researchers' information dataset ("Plataforma Lattes"). To test the hypothesis of the decade effect, we used the beta regression analysis, taking conservative and non-conservative approaches. The results showed that the predicted area expanded and retracted with the addition of new occurrences over the decades, with an improvement in the accuracy of models. Most records are located in the southeastern region of Brazil, but algorithms predicted areas in regions where there are no records. Only the conservative approach has had a positive relationship over the decades. The distance from new points does not increase over the years of research centers.

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Species occurrence records from a variety of sources are increasingly aggregated into heterogeneous databases and made available to ecologists for immediate analytical use. However, these data are typically biased, i.e. they are not a probability sample of the target population of interest, meaning that the information they provide may not be an accurate reflection of reality. It is therefore crucial that species occurrence data are properly scrutinised before they are used for research. In this article, we introduce occAssess, an R package that enables straightforward screening of species occurrence data for potential biases. The package contains a number of discrete functions, each of which returns a measure of the potential for bias in one or more of the taxonomic, temporal, spatial, and environmental dimensions. Users can opt to provide a set of time periods into which the data will be split; in this case separate outputs will be provided for each period, making the package particularly useful for assessing the suitability of a dataset for estimating temporal trends in species' distributions. The outputs are provided visually (as ggplot2 objects) and do not include a formal recommendation as to whether data are of sufficient quality for any given inferential use. Instead, they should be used as ancillary information and viewed in the context of the question that is being asked, and the methods that are being used to answer it. We demonstrate the utility of occAssess by applying it to data on two key pollinator taxa in South America: leaf-nosed bats (Phyllostomidae) and hoverflies (Syrphidae). In this worked example, we briefly assess the degree to which various aspects of data coverage appear to have changed over time. We then discuss additional applications of the package, highlight its limitations, and point to future development opportunities.

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Colletes hederae Schmidt & Westrich, 1993 is a cryptic bee species from the C. succinctus species-group. The previous occurrence and spreading of this species were predominantly in south-western Europe. To determine if the species was spreading in Slovak territory, Hedera helix was monitored from autumn 2015. The ivy-bee was first recorded in Slovakia during autumn 2017. This species is widespread inside and around Bratislava; however, it was not recorded under this study in any sites located eastwards. In the Czech Republic, it was not recorded in the south-east part of the country in 2017-2019. In 2020, the occurrence of this species was confirmed in many localities in the south of the country and strong populations were discovered, especially in the towns Znojmo and Mikulov. The populations likely originated from neighbouring Austria, where this species was discovered in 2006 and the localities are usually less than 100 km away from Czech and Slovak localities. A further survey could map a route of the northwards spread of this species.

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BACKGROUND: South America hosts some of the world's most prominent biodiversity hotspots. Yet, Uruguay - a country where multiple major ecosystems converge - ranks amongst the countries with the lowest levels of available digital biodiversity data in the continent. Such prevalent data scarcity has significantly undermined our ability to progress towards evidence-based conservation actions - a critical limitation for a country with a strong focus on agricultural industries and only 1.3% of the land surface guarded by protected areas. Under today's rapid biodiversity loss and environmental changes, the need for open-access biodiversity data is more pressing than ever before. To address this national issue, Biodiversidata - Uruguay's first Consortium of Biodiversity Data - has recently emerged with the aim of assembling a constantly growing database for the biodiversity of this country. While the first phase of the project targeted vertebrate biodiversity, the second phase presented in this paper spans the biodiversity of plants. NEW INFORMATION: As part of the second phase of the Biodiversidata initiative, we present the first comprehensive open-access species-level database of the vascular plant diversity recorded in Uruguay to date (i.e. all species for which data are currently available and species presence has been confirmed). It contains 12,470 occurrence records from across 1,648 species and 160 families, which roughly represents 60% of the total recorded flora of Uruguay. The primary biodiversity data include extant native and introduced species from the lycophytes, ferns, gymnosperms and angiosperms groups. Records were collated from multiple sources, including data available in peer-reviewed scientific literature, institutional scientific collections and datasets contributed by members of the Biodiversidata initiative. The complete database can be accessed at the Zenodo repository: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3954406.

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We present general theoretical limits on the possible accuracy (mean squared error or MSE) of occupancy estimates for a large range of occupancy study designs with imperfect detection and confirm our theoretical results via a simulation study. In particular, we show that for a given total survey effort, the best possible MSE is driven by two design-related factors: the fraction of visits made at occupied sites (regardless of whether that occupancy status is known or not) and the number of visits made to each site with unknown occupancy status (ie, sites with no detections). The limits reveal that there is very little room for improvement over optimal implementations of the three existing occupancy design paradigms: standard design (visit S sites K times each), removal design (visit S sites up to K times each, halting visits to each site following a positive detection), and conditional design (visit S sites once, then resurvey sites with a positive detection an additional K-1 times). For the small portion of the occupancy-detection parameter space where improvement can be achieved, we introduce a new hybrid survey design with accuracy closer to the theoretical limit, which we illustrate by reanalyzing an existing coyote (Canis latrans) camera trap dataset. Our results provide new clarity and intuition regarding key factors of occupancy study design.

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Biodiversity conservation requires modeling tools capable of predicting the presence or absence (i.e., occurrence-state) of species in habitat patches. Local habitat characteristics of a patch (lh), the cost of traversing the landscape matrix between patches (weighted connectivity [wc]), and the position of the patch in the habitat network topology (nt) all influence occurrence-state. Existing models are data demanding or consider only local habitat characteristics. We address these shortcomings and present a network-based modeling approach, which aims to predict species occurrence-state in habitat patches using readily available presence-only records.For the tree frog Hyla arborea in the Swiss Plateau, we delineated habitat network nodes from an ensemble habitat suitability model and used different cost surfaces to generate the edges of three networks: one limited only by dispersal distance (Uniform), another incorporating traffic, and a third based on inverse habitat suitability. For each network, we calculated explanatory variables representing the three categories (lh, wc, and nt). The response variable, occurrence-state, was parametrized by a sampling intensity procedure assessing observations of comparable species over a threshold of patch visits. The explanatory variables from the three networks and an additional non-topological model were related to the response variable with boosted regression trees.The habitat network models had a similar fit; they all outperformed the non-topological model. Habitat suitability index (lh) was the most important predictor in all networks, followed by third-order neighborhood (nt). Patch size (lh) was unimportant in all three networks.We found that topological variables of habitat networks are relevant for the prediction of species occurrence-state, a step-forward from models considering only local habitat characteristics. For any habitat patch, occurrence-state is most prominently influenced by its habitat suitability and then by the number of patches in a wide neighborhood. Our approach is generic and can be applied to multiple species in different habitats.

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BACKGROUND: The continental and marine territories of Uruguay are characterised by a rich convergence of multiple biogeographic ecoregions of the Neotropics, making this country a peculiar biodiversity spot. However, despite the biological significance of Uruguay for the South American subcontinent, the distribution of biodiversity patterns in this country remain poorly understood, given the severe gaps in available records of geographic species distributions. Currently, national biodiversity datasets are not openly available and, thus, a dominant proportion of the primary biodiversity data produced by researchers and institutions across Uruguay remains highly dispersed and difficult to access for the wider scientific and environmental community. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by developing the first comprehensive, open-access database of biodiversity records for Uruguay (Biodiversidata), which is the result of a large-scale collaboration involving experts working across the entire range of taxonomic diversity found in the country. NEW INFORMATION: As part of the first phase of Biodiversidata, we here present a comprehensive database of tetrapod occurrence records native from Uruguay, with the latest taxonomic updates. The database provides primary biodiversity data on extant Amphibia, Reptilia, Aves and Mammalia species recorded within the country. The total number of records collated is 69,380, spanning 673 species and it is available at the Zenodo repository: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2650169. This is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically comprehensive database of Uruguayan tetrapod species available to date and it represents the first open repository for the country.

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Spatiotemporal predictions of ecological phenomena are highly useful and significant in scientific and socio-economic applications. However, the inadequate availability of ecological time-series data often impedes the development of statistical predictions. On the other hand, considerable amounts of temporally discrete biological records (commonly known as 'species occurrence records') are being stored in public databases, and often include the location and date of the observation. In this paper, we describe an approach to develop spatiotemporal predictions based on the dates and locations found in species occurrence records. The approach is based on 'time-series classification', a field of machine learning, and consists of applying a machine-learning algorithm to classify between time series representing the environmental variation that precedes the occurrence records and time series representing the full range of environmental variation that is available in the location of the records. We exemplify the application of the approach for predicting the timing of emergence of fruiting bodies of two mushroom species (Boletus edulis and Macrolepiota procera) in Europe, from 2009 to 2015. Predictions made from this approach were superior to those provided by a 'null' model representing the average seasonality of the species. Given the increased availability and information contained in species occurrence records, particularly those supplemented with photographs, the range of environmental events that could be possible to predict using this approach is vast.

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