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Transcription occurs as irregular bursts in a very wide range of systems, including numerous different species and many genes within these. In this review, we examine the underlying theories, discuss how these relate to experimental measurements, and explore some of the discrepancies that have emerged among various studies. Finally, we consider more recent works that integrate novel concepts, such as the involvement of biomolecular condensates in enhancer-promoter interactions and their effects on the dynamics of transcriptional bursting.

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Tracking pathogen transmissibility during infectious disease outbreaks is essential for assessing the effectiveness of public health measures and planning future control strategies. A key measure of transmissibility is the time-dependent reproduction number, which has been estimated in real-time during outbreaks of a range of pathogens from disease incidence time series data. While commonly used approaches for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number can be reliable when disease incidence is recorded frequently, such incidence data are often aggregated temporally (for example, numbers of cases may be reported weekly rather than daily). As we show, commonly used methods for estimating transmissibility can be unreliable when the timescale of transmission is shorter than the timescale of data recording. To address this, here we develop a simulation-based approach involving Approximate Bayesian Computation for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data. We first use a simulated dataset representative of a situation in which daily disease incidence data are unavailable and only weekly summary values are reported, demonstrating that our method provides accurate estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number under such circumstances. We then apply our method to two outbreak datasets consisting of weekly influenza case numbers in 2019-20 and 2022-23 in Wales (in the United Kingdom). Our simple-to-use approach will allow accurate estimates of time-dependent reproduction numbers to be obtained from temporally aggregated data during future infectious disease outbreaks.

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Alzheimer's disease (AD) is believed to occur when abnormal amounts of the proteins amyloid beta and tau aggregate in the brain, resulting in a progressive loss of neuronal function. Hippocampal neurons in transgenic mice with amyloidopathy or tauopathy exhibit altered intrinsic excitability properties. We used deep hybrid modeling (DeepHM), a recently developed parameter inference technique that combines deep learning with biophysical modeling, to map experimental data recorded from hippocampal CA1 neurons in transgenic AD mice and age-matched wildtype littermate controls to the parameter space of a conductance-based CA1 model. Although mechanistic modeling and machine learning methods are by themselves powerful tools for approximating biological systems and making accurate predictions from data, when used in isolation these approaches suffer from distinct shortcomings: model and parameter uncertainty limit mechanistic modeling, whereas machine learning methods disregard the underlying biophysical mechanisms. DeepHM addresses these shortcomings by using conditional generative adversarial networks to provide an inverse mapping of data to mechanistic models that identifies the distributions of mechanistic modeling parameters coherent to the data. Here, we demonstrated that DeepHM accurately infers parameter distributions of the conductance-based model on several test cases using synthetic data generated with complex underlying parameter structures. We then used DeepHM to estimate parameter distributions corresponding to the experimental data and infer which ion channels are altered in the Alzheimer's mouse models compared to their wildtype controls at 12 and 24 months. We found that the conductances most disrupted by tauopathy, amyloidopathy, and aging are delayed rectifier potassium, transient sodium, and hyperpolarization-activated potassium, respectively.

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We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and is furthermore applied to COVID-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical COVID-19 data, we compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution fit the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency of the estimates on the reproduction number. Finally, we discuss the relevance of our findings.

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Predictions for physical systems often rely upon knowledge acquired from ensembles of entities, e.g. ensembles of cells in biological sciences. For qualitative and quantitative analysis, these ensembles are simulated with parametric families of mechanistic models (MMs). Two classes of methodologies, based on Bayesian inference and population of models, currently prevail in parameter estimation for physical systems. However, in Bayesian analysis, uninformative priors for MM parameters introduce undesirable bias. Here, we propose how to infer parameters within the framework of stochastic inverse problems (SIPs), also termed data-consistent inversion, wherein the prior targets only uncertainties that arise due to MM non-invertibility. To demonstrate, we introduce new methods to solve SIPs based on rejection sampling, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and generative adversarial networks (GANs). In addition, to overcome limitations of SIPs, we reformulate SIPs based on constrained optimization and present a novel GAN to solve the constrained optimization problem.

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We introduce the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method for estimating model parameters for non-linear systems of ODEs. Without relying on any numerical differential equation solvers, WENDy computes accurate estimates and is robust to large (biologically relevant) levels of measurement noise. For low dimensional systems with modest amounts of data, WENDy is competitive with conventional forward solver-based nonlinear least squares methods in terms of speed and accuracy. For both higher dimensional systems and stiff systems, WENDy is typically both faster (often by orders of magnitude) and more accurate than forward solver-based approaches. The core mathematical idea involves an efficient conversion of the strong form representation of a model to its weak form, and then solving a regression problem to perform parameter inference. The core statistical idea rests on the Errors-In-Variables framework, which necessitates the use of the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Further improvements are obtained by using orthonormal test functions, created from a set of [Formula: see text] bump functions of varying support sizes.We demonstrate the high robustness and computational efficiency by applying WENDy to estimate parameters in some common models from population biology, neuroscience, and biochemistry, including logistic growth, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Hindmarsh-Rose, and a Protein Transduction Benchmark model. Software and code for reproducing the examples is available at https://github.com/MathBioCU/WENDy .

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The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated that emerging variants can set back the global COVID-19 response. The ability to rapidly assess the threat of new variants is critical for timely optimisation of control strategies. We present a novel method to estimate the effective transmission advantage of a new variant compared to a reference variant combining information across multiple locations and over time. Through an extensive simulation study designed to mimic real-time epidemic contexts, we show that our method performs well across a range of scenarios and provide guidance on its optimal use and interpretation of results. We also provide an open-source software implementation of our method. The computational speed of our tool enables users to rapidly explore spatial and temporal variations in the estimated transmission advantage. We estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant is 1.46 (95% Credible Interval 1.44-1.47) and 1.29 (95% CrI 1.29-1.30) times more transmissible than the wild type, using data from England and France respectively. We further estimate that Delta is 1.77 (95% CrI 1.69-1.85) times more transmissible than Alpha (England data). Our approach can be used as an important first step towards quantifying the threat of emerging or co-circulating variants of infectious pathogens in real-time.

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Astrocytes are the largest subset of glial cells and perform structural, metabolic, and regulatory functions. They are directly involved in the communication at neuronal synapses and the maintenance of brain homeostasis. Several disorders, such as Alzheimer's, epilepsy, and schizophrenia, have been associated with astrocyte dysfunction. Computational models on various spatial levels have been proposed to aid in the understanding and research of astrocytes. The difficulty of computational astrocyte models is to fastly and precisely infer parameters. Physics informed neural networks (PINNs) use the underlying physics to infer parameters and, if necessary, dynamics that can not be observed. We have applied PINNs to estimate parameters for a computational model of an astrocytic compartment. The addition of two techniques helped with the gradient pathologies of the PINNS, the dynamic weighting of various loss components and the addition of Transformers. To overcome the issue that the neural network only learned the time dependence but did not know about eventual changes of the input stimulation to the astrocyte model, we followed an adaptation of PINNs from control theory (PINCs). In the end, we were able to infer parameters from artificial, noisy data, with stable results for the computational astrocyte model.

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Swine influenza A virus (swIAV) is a major pathogen affecting pigs with a huge economic impact and potentially zoonotic. Epidemiological studies in endemically infected farms permitted to identify critical factors favoring on-farm persistence, among which maternally-derived antibodies (MDAs). Vaccination is commonly practiced in breeding herds and might be used for immunization of growing pigs at weaning. Althoughinterference between MDAs and vaccination was reported in young piglets, its impact on swIAV transmission was not yet quantified. To this aim, this study reports on a transmission experiment in piglets with or without MDAs, vaccinated with a single dose injection at four weeks of age, and challenged 17 days post-vaccination. To transpose small-scale experiments to real-life situation, estimated parameters were used in a simulation tool to assess their influence at the herd level. Based on a thorough follow-up of the infection chain during the experiment, the transmission of the swIAV challenge strain was highly dependent on the MDA status of the pigs when vaccinated. MDA-positive vaccinated animals showed a direct transmission rate 3.6-fold higher than the one obtained in vaccinated animals without MDAs, estimated to 1.2. Vaccination nevertheless reduced significantly the contribution of airborne transmission when compared with previous estimates obtained in unvaccinated animals. The integration of parameter estimates in a large-scale simulation model, representing a typical farrow-to-finish pig herd, evidenced an extended persistence of viral spread when vaccination of sows and single dose vaccination of piglets was hypothesized. When extinction was quasi-systematic at year 5 post-introduction in the absence of sow vaccination but with single dose early vaccination of piglets, the extinction probability fell down to 33% when batch-to-batch vaccination was implemented both in breeding herd and weaned piglets. These results shed light on a potential adverse effect of single dose vaccination in MDA-positive piglets, which might lead to longer persistence of the SwIAV at the herd level.

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The hERG channel is one of the essential ion channels composing the cardiac action potential and the toxicity assay for new drug. Recently, the comprehensive in vitro proarrhythmia assay (CiPA) was adopted for cardiac toxicity evaluation. One of the hurdles for this protocol is identifying the kinetic effect of the new drug on the hERG channel. This procedure included the model-based parameter identification from the experiments. There are many mathematical methods to infer the parameters; however, there are two main difficulties in fitting parameters. The first is that, depending on the data and model, parametric inference can be highly time-consuming. The second is that the fitting can fail due to local minima problems. The simplest and most effective way to solve these issues is to provide an appropriate initial value. In this study, we propose a deep learning-based method for improving model fitting by providing appropriate initial values, even the right answer. We generated the dataset by changing the model parameters and trained our deep learning-based model. To improve the accuracy, we used the spectrogram with time, frequency, and amplitude. We obtained the experimental dataset from https://github.com/CardiacModelling/hERGRapidCharacterisation. Then, we trained the deep-learning model using the data generated with the hERG model and tested the validity of the deep-learning model with the experimental data. We successfully identified the initial value, significantly improved the fitting speed, and avoided fitting failure. This method is useful when the model is fixed and reflects the real data, and it can be applied to any in silico model for various purposes, such as new drug development, toxicity identification, environmental effect, etc. This method will significantly reduce the time and effort to analyze the data.

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Pulmonary hypertension (PH), defined by a mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP) greater than 20 mmHg, is characterized by increased pulmonary vascular resistance and decreased pulmonary arterial compliance. There are few measurable biomarkers of PH progression, but a conclusive diagnosis of the disease requires invasive right heart catheterization (RHC). Patient-specific cardiovascular systems-level computational models provide a potential non-invasive tool for determining additional indicators of disease severity. Using computational modelling, this study quantifies physiological parameters indicative of disease severity in nine PH patients. The model includes all four heart chambers, the pulmonary and systemic circulations. We consider two sets of calibration data: static (systolic and diastolic values) RHC data and a combination of static and continuous, time-series waveform data. We determine a subset of identifiable parameters for model calibration using sensitivity analyses and multi-start inference and perform posterior uncertainty quantification. Results show that additional waveform data enables accurate calibration of the right atrial reservoir and pump function across the PH cohort. Model outcomes, including stroke work and pulmonary resistance-compliance relations, reflect typical right heart dynamics in PH phenotypes. Lastly, we show that estimated parameters agree with previous, non-modelling studies, supporting this type of analysis in translational PH research.

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During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic models have been central to policy-making. Public health responses have been shaped by model-based projections and inferences, especially related to the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Accompanying this has been increased scrutiny over model performance, model assumptions, and the way that uncertainty is incorporated and presented. Here we consider a population-level model, focusing on how distributions representing host infectiousness and the infection-to-death times are modelled, and particularly on the impact of inferred epidemic characteristics if these distributions are mis-specified. We introduce an SIR-type model with the infected population structured by 'infected age', i.e. the number of days since first being infected, a formulation that enables distributions to be incorporated that are consistent with clinical data. We show that inference based on simpler models without infected age, which implicitly mis-specify these distributions, leads to substantial errors in inferred quantities relevant to policy-making, such as the reproduction number and the impact of interventions. We consider uncertainty quantification via a Bayesian approach, implementing this for both synthetic and real data focusing on UK data in the period 15 Feb-14 Jul 2020, and emphasising circumstances where it is misleading to neglect uncertainty. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

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Oncolytic viruses are a promising new treatment for cancer, whereby viruses are engineered to selectively destroy cancer cells. Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the virus-tumour system can be modelled to provide insight into the system outcomes under different treatment protocols. In this study key metrics of treatment efficacy were identified and the mathematical model used to develop a decision framework to assess different treatment protocols. The optimal treatment outcome is the interplay between the virus application protocol and the uncertainty about the tumour characteristics. The uncertainty in the model parameters decreases as more data is available for their inference - however to obtain more data more time is required and the tumour then grows in size. Thus, there is an inherent tension whether it is better to wait to know the characteristics of the tumour system better or immediately initiating treatment. It is shown that, for small tumours, parameter inference with limited data does not constrain the choice of treatment protocol and rather only influences longer term decisions.

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We derive analytical steady-state cell size distributions for size-controlled cells in single-lineage experiments, such as the mother machine, which are fundamentally different from batch cultures where populations of cells grow freely. For exponential single-cell growth, characterizing most bacteria, the lineage-population bias is obtained explicitly. In addition, if volume is evenly split between the daughter cells at division, we show that cells are on average smaller in populations than in lineages. For more general power-law growth rates and deterministic volume partitioning, both symmetric and asymmetric, we derive the exact lineage distribution. This solution is in good agreement with Escherichia coli mother machine data and can be used to infer cell cycle parameters such as the strength of the size control and the asymmetry of the division. When introducing stochastic volume partitioning, we derive the large-size and small-size tails of the lineage distribution and show that the lineage-population bias only depends on the single-cell growth rate. These asymptotic behaviours are extended to the adder model of cell size control. When considering noisy single-cell growth rate, we derive the large-size lineage and population distributions. Finally, we show that introducing noise, either on the volume partitioning or on the single-cell growth rate, can cancel the lineage-population bias.

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The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the model parameters based on noisy observations early in the outbreak, well before the epidemic reaches its peak. This allows prediction of the subsequent course of the epidemic and design of appropriate interventions. However, accurately inferring SIR model parameters in such scenarios is problematic. This article provides novel, theoretical insight on this issue of practical identifiability of the SIR model. Our theory provides new understanding of the inferential limits of routinely used epidemic models and provides a valuable addition to current simulate-and-check methods. We illustrate some practical implications through application to a real-world epidemic data set.

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We present a new method for analysing stochastic epidemic models under minimal assumptions. The method, dubbed dynamic survival analysis (DSA), is based on a simple yet powerful observation, namely that population-level mean-field trajectories described by a system of partial differential equations may also approximate individual-level times of infection and recovery. This idea gives rise to a certain non-Markovian agent-based model and provides an agent-level likelihood function for a random sample of infection and/or recovery times. Extensive numerical analyses on both synthetic and real epidemic data from foot-and-mouth disease in the UK (2001) and COVID-19 in India (2020) show good accuracy and confirm the method's versatility in likelihood-based parameter estimation. The accompanying software package gives prospective users a practical tool for modelling, analysing and interpreting epidemic data with the help of the DSA approach.

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Biophysical models are increasingly used to gain mechanistic insights by fitting and reproducing experimental and clinical data. The inherent variability in the recorded datasets, however, presents a key challenge. In this study, we present a novel approach, which integrates mechanistic modeling and machine learning to analyze in vitro cardiac mechanics data and solve the inverse problem of model parameter inference. We designed a novel generative adversarial network (GAN) and employed it to construct virtual populations of cardiac ventricular myocyte models in order to study the action of Omecamtiv Mecarbil (OM), a positive cardiac inotrope. Populations of models were calibrated from mechanically unloaded myocyte shortening recordings obtained in experiments on rat myocytes in the presence and absence of OM. The GAN was able to infer model parameters while incorporating prior information about which model parameters OM targets. The generated populations of models reproduced variations in myocyte contraction recorded during in vitro experiments and provided improved understanding of OM's mechanism of action. Inverse mapping of the experimental data using our approach suggests a novel action of OM, whereby it modifies interactions between myosin and tropomyosin proteins. To validate our approach, the inferred model parameters were used to replicate other in vitro experimental protocols, such as skinned preparations demonstrating an increase in calcium sensitivity and a decrease in the Hill coefficient of the force-calcium (F-Ca) curve under OM action. Our approach thereby facilitated the identification of the mechanistic underpinnings of experimental observations and the exploration of different hypotheses regarding variability in this complex biological system.

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In this paper, fundamentals and recent progress for obtaining biological features quantitatively by using diffusion MRI are reviewed. First, a brief description of diffusion MRI history, application, and development was presented. Then, well-known parametric models including diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), diffusional kurtosis imaging (DKI), and neurite orientation dispersion diffusion imaging (NODDI) are introduced with several classifications in various viewpoints with other modeling schemes. In addition, this review covers mathematical generalization and examples of methodologies for the model parameter inference from conventional fitting to recent machine learning approaches, which is called Q-space learning (QSL). Finally, future perspectives on diffusion MRI parameter inference are discussed with the aspects of imaging modeling and simulation.

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Parameter inference of dynamical systems is a challenging task faced by many researchers and practitioners across various fields. In many applications, it is common that only limited variables are observable. In this paper, we propose a method for parameter inference of a system of nonlinear coupled ordinary differential equations with partial observations. Our method combines fast Gaussian process-based gradient matching and deterministic optimization algorithms. By using initial values obtained by Bayesian steps with low sampling numbers, our deterministic optimization algorithm is both accurate, robust and efficient with partial observations and large noise.

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Diverse cellular phenotypes are determined by groups of transcription factors (TFs) and other regulators that influence each others' gene expression, forming transcriptional gene regulatory networks (GRNs). In many biological contexts, especially in development and associated diseases, the expression of the genes in GRNs is not static but evolves in time. Modeling the dynamics of GRN state is an important approach for understanding diverse cellular phenomena such as cell-fate specification, pluripotency and cell-fate reprogramming, oncogenesis, and tissue regeneration. In this protocol, we describe how to model GRNs using a data-driven dynamic modeling methodology, gene circuits. Gene circuits do not require knowledge of the GRN topology and connectivity but instead learn them from training data, making them very general and applicable to diverse biological contexts. We utilize the MATLAB-based gene circuit modeling software Fast Inference of Gene Regulation (FIGR) for training the model on quantitative gene expression data and simulating the GRN. We describe all the steps in the modeling life cycle, from formulating the model, training the model using FIGR, simulating the GRN, to analyzing and interpreting the model output. This protocol highlights these steps with the example of a dynamical model of the gap gene GRN involved in Drosophila segmentation and includes example MATLAB statements for each step.

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