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Mutualistic interactions are key to sustaining Earth's biodiversity. Yet, we are only beginning to understand how coevolution in mutualistic assemblages can shape the distribution and persistence of species across landscapes. Here, we combine the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution with metacommunity dynamics to understand how geographically structured selection can shape patterns of richness, dispersal, extinction and persistence of mutualistic species. In this model, species may experience strong or weak reciprocal selection imposed by mutualisms within each patch (i.e. hotspots and coldspots, respectively). Using numerical simulations, we show that mutualistic coevolution leads to a concentration of species richness at hotspots. Such an effect occurs because hotspots sustain higher rates of colonization and lower rates of extinction than coldspots, whether the environment changes or not. Importantly, under environmental changes, coldspots fail to sustain a positive colonization-to-extinction balance. Rather, species persistence within coldspots relies on hotspots acting as biodiversity sources and enhancing population dispersal across the landscape. In fact, even a few hotspots in the landscape can fuel the spatial network of dispersal of populations in the metacommunity. Our study highlights that coevolutionary hotspots can act as biodiversity sources, favouring colonization and allowing species to expand their distribution across landscapes even in changing environments. This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

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Pathogen evolution is one of the least predictable components of disease emergence, particularly in nature. Here, building on principles established by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution, we develop a quantitative, spatially explicit framework for mapping the evolutionary risk of viral emergence. Driven by interest in diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we examine the global biogeography of bat-origin betacoronaviruses, and find that coevolutionary principles suggest geographies of risk that are distinct from the hotspots and coldspots of host richness. Further, our framework helps explain patterns like a unique pool of merbecoviruses in the Neotropics, a recently discovered lineage of divergent nobecoviruses in Madagascar, and-most importantly-hotspots of diversification in southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East that correspond to the site of previous zoonotic emergence events. Our framework may help identify hotspots of future risk that have also been previously overlooked, like West Africa and the Indian subcontinent, and may more broadly help researchers understand how host ecology shapes the evolution and diversity of pandemic threats.

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The geographic mosaic theory of coevolution (GMC) posits that coevolutionary dynamics go beyond local coevolution and are comprised of the following three components: geographic selection mosaics, coevolutionary hot spots, and trait remixing. It is unclear whether the GMC applies to bacteria, as horizontal gene transfer and cosmopolitan dispersal may violate theoretical assumptions. Here, we test key GMC predictions in an antibiotic-producing bacterial symbiont (genus Pseudonocardia) that protects the crops of neotropical fungus-farming ants (Apterostigma dentigerum) from a specialized pathogen (genus Escovopsis). We found that Pseudonocardia antibiotic inhibition of common Escovopsis pathogens was elevated in A. dentigerum colonies from Panama compared to those from Costa Rica. Furthermore, a Panama Canal Zone population of Pseudonocardia on Barro Colorado Island (BCI) was locally adapted, whereas two neighboring populations were not, consistent with a GMC-predicted selection mosaic and a hot spot of adaptation surrounded by areas of maladaptation. Maladaptation was shaped by incongruent Pseudonocardia-Escovopsis population genetic structure, whereas local adaptation was facilitated by geographic isolation on BCI after the flooding of the Panama Canal. Genomic assessments of antibiotic potential of 29 Pseudonocardia strains identified diverse and unique biosynthetic gene clusters in BCI strains despite low genetic diversity in the core genome. The strength of antibiotic inhibition was not correlated with the presence/absence of individual biosynthetic gene clusters or with parasite location. Rather, biosynthetic gene clusters have undergone selective sweeps, suggesting that the trait remixing dynamics conferring the long-term maintenance of antibiotic potency rely on evolutionary genetic changes within already-present biosynthetic gene clusters and not simply on the horizontal acquisition of novel genetic elements or pathways.IMPORTANCE Recently, coevolutionary theory in macroorganisms has been advanced by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution (GMC), which considers how geography and local adaptation shape coevolutionary dynamics. Here, we test GMC in an ancient symbiosis in which the ant Apterostigma dentigerum cultivates fungi in an agricultural system analogous to human farming. The cultivars are parasitized by the fungus Escovopsis The ants maintain symbiotic actinobacteria with antibiotic properties that help combat Escovopsis infection. This antibiotic symbiosis has persisted for tens of millions of years, raising the question of how antibiotic potency is maintained over these time scales. Our study tests the GMC in a bacterial defensive symbiosis and in a multipartite symbiosis framework. Our results show that this multipartite symbiotic system conforms to the GMC and demonstrate that this theory is applicable in both microbes and indirect symbiont-symbiont interactions.

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The outcomes of many species interactions are conditional on the environments in which they occur. Often, interactions grade from being more positive under stressful or low-resource conditions to more antagonistic or neutral under benign conditions. Here, we take predictions about two well-supported ecological theories on conditionality-limiting resource models and the stress-gradient hypothesis-and combine them with those from the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution (GMTC) to generate predictions for systematic patterns of adaptation and coadaptation between partners along abiotic gradients. When interactions become more positive in stressful environments, mutations that increase fitness in one partner may also increase fitness in the other; because fitnesses are aligned, selection should favor greater mutualistic adaptation and coadaptation between interacting species in stressful ends of environmental gradients. As a corollary, in benign environments antagonistic coadaptation could result in Red Queen or arms-race dynamics or the reduction of antagonism through character displacement and niche partitioning. Here, we distinguish between generally mutualistic or antagonistic adaptation (i.e., mutations in one partner that have similar effects across multiple populations of the other) and specific adaptations to sympatric partners (local adaptation), which can occur either alone or simultaneously. We then outline the kinds of data required to test these predictions, develop experimental designs and statistical methods, and demonstrate these using simulations based on GMTC models. Our methods can be applied to a range of conditional outcomes and may also be useful in assisted translocation approaches in the face of climate change.

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Local adaptation of interacting species to one another indicates geographically variable reciprocal selection. This process of adaptation is central in the organization and maintenance of genetic variation across populations. Given that the strength of selection and responses to it often vary in time and space, the strength of local adaptation should in theory vary between generations and among populations. However, such spatiotemporal variation has rarely been explicitly demonstrated in nature and local adaptation is commonly considered to be relatively static. We report persistent local adaptation of the short-lived herbivore Abrostola asclepiadis to its long-lived host plant Vincetoxicum hirundinaria over three successive generations in two studied populations and considerable temporal variation in local adaptation in six populations supporting the geographic mosaic theory. The observed variation in local adaptation among populations was best explained by geographic distance and population isolation, suggesting that gene flow reduces local adaptation. Changes in herbivore population size did not conclusively explain temporal variation in local adaptation. Our results also imply that short-term studies are likely to capture only a part of the existing variation in local adaptation.

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