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1.
Accid Anal Prev ; 207: 107739, 2024 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39151252

RESUMEN

Signalized intersections are crash prone. This can be attributed to driver errors, red light running behaviour, and poor coordination of conflicting traffic. It is anticipated that overall crash risk at signalized intersection would increase when mixed traffic like motorcycles is involved. In this study, a real-time prediction model for motorcycle and non-motorcycle involved conflict risk at the signalized intersection is proposed. For example, high-resolution vehicle and motorcycle trajectory data are extracted from drone videos using advanced computer vision techniques. Additionally, conflict types including rear-end, angle, and head-on conflicts are also considered. Then, the multinomial logit approach is adopted to model the propensity of severe and slight vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-motorcycle conflicts. Furthermore, the problem of unobserved heterogeneity is addressed using the random parameters model with heterogeneity in means and variances. Results indicate that risk of vehicle-vehicle conflict is significantly associated with vehicle speed and acceleration, and conflict type, and that of vehicle-motorcycle conflict is associated with vehicle speed and acceleration, motorcycle lateral speed, conflict type, and time to green signal. Findings should shed light to the development and implementation of optimal traffic signal time plan and traffic management strategy that can mitigate the potential crash risk, especially involving motorcycles, at the signalized intersection.


Asunto(s)
Accidentes de Tránsito , Conducción de Automóvil , Motocicletas , Grabación en Video , Humanos , Accidentes de Tránsito/prevención & control , Modelos Logísticos , Aceleración
2.
Accid Anal Prev ; 200: 107562, 2024 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38554471

RESUMEN

Single-vehicle rollover crashes have been acknowledged as a predominant highway crash type resulting in serious casualties. To investigate the heterogeneous impact of factors determining different injury severity levels in single-vehicle rollover crashes, the random parameters logit model with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances was employed in this paper. A five-year dataset on single-vehicle rollover crashes, gathered in California from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017, was utilized. Driver injury severities that were determined to be outcome variables include no injury, minor injury, and severe injury. Characteristics pertaining to the crash, driver, temporal, vehicle, roadway, and environment were acknowledged as potential determinants. The results showed that the gender indicator specified to minor injury was consistently identified as a significant random parameter in four years' models and the joint five-year model, excluding the 2016 crash model where the night indicator associated with no injury was observed to produce the random effect. Additionally, two series of likelihood ratio tests were conducted to assess the year-to-year and aggregate-to-component temporal stability of model estimation results. Marginal effects of explanatory variables were also calculated and compared to analyze the temporal stability and interpret the results. The findings revealed an overall temporal instability of model specifications across individual years, while there is no significant aggregate-to-component variation. Injury severities were observed to be stably affected by several variables, including improper turn indicator, under the influence of alcohol indicator, old driver indicator, seatbelt indicator, insurance indicator, and airbag indicator. Furthermore, the year-to-year and aggregate-to-component shift was quantified and characterized by calculating the differences in probabilities between within-sample observations and out-of-sample predictions. The overall results imply that continuing to expand and refine the model to incorporate more comprehensive datasets can result in more robust and stable injury severity prediction, thus benefiting in mitigating the associated driver injury severity.


Asunto(s)
Airbags , Heridas y Lesiones , Humanos , Accidentes de Tránsito , Índices de Gravedad del Trauma , Probabilidad , Modelos Logísticos , Heridas y Lesiones/epidemiología
3.
Traffic Inj Prev ; 25(3): 492-498, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38441943

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: Work zones are unique in geometry and traffic management, utilizing special traffic signs, standard channelizing devices, appropriate barriers, and pavement markings. These configurations can introduce unexpected driving conditions, potentially posing risks to drivers. This analysis aims to explore potential differences in contributing factors between work-zone crashes where geometry was identified as a factor and those where it was non-geometry factor. To gain insights into driver injury severities in single-vehicle work-zone crashes, this study analyzed work zone crash data from Florida. METHOD: This study employed random parameters logit models, accommodating potential variations in parameter estimates' means and variances. The dataset encompassed a wide array of factors known to influence driver injury severity, encompassing crash characteristics, vehicle attributes, roadway features, prevailing traffic volume, driver profiles, and spatial and temporal considerations. RESULTS: This analysis yielded significantly distinct parameters for work-zone crashes, distinguishing between geometry-related and non-geometry-related factors (primarily the human factors). This distinction suggests a complex interplay between these factors. Notably, the marginal effects of individual parameter estimates exhibited marked differences between these two categories - geometry and non-geometry factors. CONCLUSION: These findings contribute to the growing body of research indicating that geometric restrictions within work zones introduce a distinct set of risk factors compared to non-geometry-related factors. Recognizing the significance of geometric restrictions, beyond typical driving conditions, holds the implications for enhancing safety within various work zone configurations and offers valuable insights for crash scene investigators to pinpoint contributing factors accurately.


Asunto(s)
Conducción de Automóvil , Heridas y Lesiones , Humanos , Accidentes de Tránsito , Factores de Riesgo , Modelos Logísticos , Florida
4.
Accid Anal Prev ; 195: 107417, 2024 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38061290

RESUMEN

The presence of unobserved factors in the motorcycle involved two-vehicle crashes (MV) data could lead to heterogenous associations between observed factors and injury severity sustained by motorcyclists. Capturing such heterogeneities necessitates distinct methodological approaches, of which random and scale heterogeneity models are paramount. Herein, we undertake an empirical evaluation of random and scale heterogeneity models, exploring their efficacy in delineating the influence of external determinants on the degree of injury severity in crashes. Within the effects of scale heterogeneity, this study delves into two dominant models: the scaled multinomial logit model (S-MNL) and its generalized counterpart, the G-MNL, which encompasses both the S-MNL and the random parameters multinomial logit model (RPL). While the random heterogeneity domain is represented by the random parameters multinomial logit and an upgraded variant - the random parameters multinomial logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances (RPLHMV). Motorcycle involved two-vehicle crashes data were extracted from the UK STATS19 dataset from 2016 to 2020. Likelihood ratio tests are computed to assess the temporal variability of the significant factors. The test result demonstrates the temporal variations over a five-year study period. Some very important differences started to show up across the years based on the model estimation results: that the RPLHMV model statistically outperforms the G-MNL model in the 2016, 2018, and 2019 models, while the S-MNL model is statistically superior in the 2017 and 2020 years. These important findings suggest that the origin of heterogeneity in explaining factor weights can be captured by scale effects, not just random heterogeneity. In addition, the model results further show that motorcyclists' injury severities are significantly affected by motorcycle-related characteristics; there is the added factor of external influences, such as non-motorcycle drivers (males, young drivers, and elderly drivers) and vehicles (the moving status, age, and types of vehicles) that collide with motorcycles. The results of this paper are anticipated to help policymakers develop effective strategies to mitigate motorcycle involved two-vehicle crashes by implementing appropriate measures.


Asunto(s)
Accidentes de Tránsito , Heridas y Lesiones , Anciano , Humanos , Masculino , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Modelos Logísticos , Motocicletas , Femenino
5.
Accid Anal Prev ; 195: 107408, 2024 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38043213

RESUMEN

In recent years, the electric scooter has become one of the most popular means of transportation on short trips. Due to the lag in the formulation of transportation policies and regulations, coupled with the increasing number of electric scooter crashes, there has been growing concern about the safety of pedestrians and electric scooter riders. For the first time in the extant literature, this study aims to analyze injury severity of electric scooter crashes by unobserved heterogeneity modeling approaches. A random parameters approach with heterogeneity in means and variances is utilized to examine the factors influencing injury severity, using data collected from the STATS19 road safety database. Electric scooter crashes are classified as single-vehicle crashes and two-vehicle crashes, with injury severity categorized into two groups: fatalities or serious injuries, and slight injuries. The model estimation was conducted by considering several variables including roadway, environment, temporality, vehicle, and rider characteristics, as well as second-party vehicle and driver characteristics and manners of collision specific to two-vehicle crashes. The results of the model estimation reveal that certain factors had relatively stable effects with the varying degree of crash injury severity outcomes in both single-vehicle crashes and two-vehicle crashes. These factors include nighttime incidents, weekdays, male riders, and an increase in rider age, all of which are associated with more severe injury outcomes. Moreover, the random parameters logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances is more flexible in accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and exhibits better goodness of fit. This study improves the understanding of electric scooter safety, and the finding can better inform public policy regarding electric scooter use to improve road safety and reduce injury severity of electric scooter crashes.


Asunto(s)
Peatones , Heridas y Lesiones , Humanos , Masculino , Accidentes de Tránsito , Bases de Datos Factuales , Modelos Logísticos , Transportes , Heridas y Lesiones/epidemiología , Femenino
6.
Neuroimage ; 285: 120496, 2024 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38101495

RESUMEN

Diffusion MRI (dMRI) allows for non-invasive investigation of brain tissue microstructure. By fitting a model to the dMRI signal, various quantitative measures can be derived from the data, such as fractional anisotropy, neurite density and axonal radii maps. We investigate the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) and uncertainty propagation as a generally applicable method for quantifying the parameter uncertainties in linear and non-linear diffusion MRI models. In direct comparison with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, the FIM produces similar uncertainty estimates at much lower computational cost. Using acquired and simulated data, we then list several characteristics that influence the parameter variances, including data complexity and signal-to-noise ratio. For practical purposes we investigate a possible use of uncertainty estimates in decreasing intra-group variance in group statistics by uncertainty-weighted group estimates. This has potential use cases for detection and suppression of imaging artifacts.


Asunto(s)
Imagen de Difusión por Resonancia Magnética , Neuritas , Humanos , Incertidumbre , Imagen de Difusión por Resonancia Magnética/métodos , Cadenas de Markov , Axones
7.
Accid Anal Prev ; 196: 107446, 2024 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38157676

RESUMEN

This study delves into the factors that contribute to the severity of single-vehicle crashes, focusing on enhancing both computational speed and model robustness. Utilizing a mixed logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances, we offer a comprehensive understanding of the complexities surrounding crash severity. The analysis is grounded in a dataset of 39,788 crash records from the UK's STATS19 database, which includes variables such as road type, speed limits, and lighting conditions. A comparative evaluation of estimation methods, including pseudo-random, Halton, and scrambled and randomized Halton sequences, demonstrates the superior performance of the latter. Specifically, our estimation approach excels in goodness-of-fit, as measured by ρ2, and in minimizing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), all while optimizing computational resources like run time and memory usage. This strategic efficiency enables more thorough and credible analyses, rendering our model a robust tool for understanding crash severity. Policymakers and researchers will find this study valuable for crafting data-driven interventions aimed at reducing road crash severity.


Asunto(s)
Accidentes de Tránsito , Heridas y Lesiones , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Accidentes de Tránsito/prevención & control , Iluminación , Bases de Datos Factuales
8.
Biom J ; 65(8): e2200300, 2023 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37789586

RESUMEN

We give a simulation-based method for computing the multiplicity adjusted p-values and critical constants for the Dunnett procedure for comparing treatments with a control under heteroskedasticity. The Welch-Satterthwaite test statistics used in this procedure do not have a simple multivariate t-distribution because their denominators are mixtures of chi-squares and are correlated because of the common control treatment sample variance present in all denominators. The joint distribution of the denominators of the test statistics is approximated by correlated chi-square variables and is generated using a novel algorithm proposed in this paper. This approximation is used to derive critical constants or adjusted p-values. The familywise error rate (FWER) of the proposed method is compared with some existing methods via simulation under different heteroskedastic scenarios. The results show that our proposed method controls the FWER most accurately, whereas other methods are either too conservative or liberal or control the FWER less accurately. The different methods considered are illustrated on a real data set.


Asunto(s)
Algoritmos , Modelos Estadísticos , Simulación por Computador
9.
Accid Anal Prev ; 191: 107232, 2023 Oct.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37506407

RESUMEN

This paper aims to empirically evaluate the ordered and unordered discrete outcome frameworks to approach riders' red-light running (RLR) decisions and compare the differences in influencing factors between riders' risk-taking and opportunistic RLR behaviors. A total of 2057 cyclist samples approaching the intersections during red signals were observed by video in Beijing, China. To better capture the unobserved heterogeneity, apart from the traditional models, three advanced models including the random thresholds random parameters hierarchical ordered logit (RTRPHOL) model, the random parameters logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances (RPLHMV) model, and the correlated random parameters logit model with heterogeneity in means (CRPLHM), are developed. Results show that: 1) the unordered framework statistically outperformed its ordered counterparts, and the RPLHMV and CRPLHM models are statistically better than others. 2) The female and e-bicycle indicators produce a heterogeneity-in-means effect, and the low-volume and left-side indicators produce a heterogeneity-in-variances effect. 3) e-bike riders and riders from the right side are more inclined to have risk-taking behavior than opportunistic behavior, and both RLR behaviors of cyclists are most susceptible to the number of violating individual indicator. Findings illustrate that multilayer unobserved heterogeneity should be adequately considered in developing precise micro-simulation and practical guidance in traffic safety.


Asunto(s)
Accidentes de Tránsito , Asunción de Riesgos , Humanos , Femenino , Ciclismo , Luz , China , Modelos Logísticos
10.
Scand J Med Sci Sports ; 33(12): 2413-2422, 2023 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37485972

RESUMEN

Via systematic review with narrative synthesis of findings, we aimed to document the ways by which researchers have defined, operationalized, and examined sleep variability among athletes. We identified studies in which scholars examined intraperson variability in sleep among athletes via a search of six databases (Web of Science, Embase, Medline, PsycINFO, CINHAL Plus, and ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global) using a protocol that included keywords for the target outcome (sleep*), population (athlet* OR sport*), and outcome operationalization (variability OR variation OR "standard deviation" OR fluctuate OR fluctuation OR stability OR instability OR reactivity OR IIV OR intraindividual). We complemented this primary search with citation searching of eligible articles. Assessments of study quality captured eight core elements, namely aims/hypotheses, sample size justification, sample representativeness, number of days sleep assessed, measures of sleep and its correlates, missing data, and inferences and conclusions. From a total of 1209 potentially relevant papers, we identified 16 studies as meeting our eligibility criteria. Concept definitions of variability were notably absent from this work and where available were vague. Quantitative deviations from one's typical level of target sleep metrics reflected the essence by which all but one of the research teams operationalized sleep variability. We assessed the overall quality of empirical work as moderate in nature. We propose a working definition of sleep variability that can inform knowledge generation on the temporal, day-to-day dynamics of sleep functioning that is required for personalized interventions for optimizing sleep health.


Asunto(s)
Sueño , Deportes , Humanos , Atletas
11.
Int J Cardiol ; 383: 117-131, 2023 07 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37150213

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Despite the fact that stroke is the second leading cause of death globally, a comprehensive and comparable assessment of mortality, and epidemiologic trends has not been conducted for most regions.We estimated the global and regional burden of stroke from 1990 to 2019 using data from the 2019 Global Study of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors. METHODS: For the period between 1990 and 2019, we used an age-period-cohort model to calculate the annual percentage changes in mortality (net drifts), local drifts, and period and cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects). Meanwhile, to quantify the temporal trends in stroke age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were determined by sex, area. With the potential to uncover disparities and treatment gaps in stroke care, this approach enables the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in mortality trends. FINDINGS: Global stroke deaths in 2019 were 6,552,725 (95% UI 5,995,200 to 7,015,139). Between 1990 and 2019, the ASMR declined globally by 36.43% (95% UI -41.65 to -31.2), with decreases in all SDI quintiles. The net drift in stroke mortality from 1990 to 2019 varied from -2.83% per year (95% confidence interval [CI]:-3.39 to -2.77) in countries with a high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) to -1.21% per year (95% CI: -1.26 to -1.16) in countries with a low SDI. During the past 30 years, favorable mortality reductions were generally found in high-SDI countries (net drift = -3.1% [95% CI: -3.4 to -2.8] per year) and high-middle SDI countries (-2.8% [-3.0 to -2.6]). However, 31 of 204 countries had either increasing trends (net drifts≥0.0%) or stagnated reductions (≥ - 0.5%) in mortality. The relative risk of mortality generally showed improving trends over time and in successively younger birth cohorts among high and high-middle SDI countries, with the exceptions of Kuwait, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Guam, RussianFederation, Lithuania, Turkey, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovin, and Bulgaria. INTERPRETATION: Notwithstanding mortality from stroke has increased globally over the past 30 years, adverse period and cohort effects have been found in many countries, calling into question the adequacy of healthcare for stroke patients of all ages. These lapses have a significant impact on the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets on mortality from age 60+ and NCDs.


Asunto(s)
Carga Global de Enfermedades , Esperanza de Vida , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo , Salud Global , Estudios de Cohortes , Años de Vida Ajustados por Calidad de Vida
12.
Accid Anal Prev ; 187: 107074, 2023 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37086513

RESUMEN

Urban bus crashes have been an increasing concern in China thanks to the expansion of urban bus systems. Bus drivers' rule violation behavior appears to be an important factor of bus crashes. However, existing studies rely heavily on questionnaire survey of rule violation behaviors, which may suffer from self-reporting bias. Using observational data of 1,356 bus drivers from onboard video recordings, this paper develops a random parameter zero-inflated Poisson model (with heterogeneity in means and variances) to uncover the relationship between drivers' rule violation behaviors and bus crashes. Model results show that rule violation behaviors such as using a cell phone, driving outside the bus lane, and touching solid line with wheel while driving significantly correlate with crash frequencies with large marginal effects, whereas some other violation behaviors (e.g., running red lights, changing lanes suddenly) show a minor role. This finding highlights the importance of differentiating various rule violations when examining bus crashes instead of aggregating them altogether. Furthermore, the effects of rule violation behavior show substantial heterogeneity. For example, the association between not yielding to pedestrians and bus crashes is enhanced when drivers also show records of touching solid line with wheel while driving, driving outside the bus lane, or are internally trained. Findings of this study provide insights for countermeasures to improve bus safety by targeting critical bus driver groups with specific rule violations, and inform future research to collect observational data on drivers' rule violation behaviors.


Asunto(s)
Conducción de Automóvil , Humanos , Accidentes de Tránsito/prevención & control , Autoinforme , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , China
13.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36900855

RESUMEN

Motorcycle accidents can impede sustainable development due to the high fatality rate associated with motorcycle riders, particularly in developing countries. Although there has been extensive research conducted on motorcycle accidents on highways, there is a limited understanding of the factors contributing to accidents involving the most commonly used motorcycles on local roads. This study aimed to identify the root causes of fatal motorcycle accidents on local roads. The contributing factors consist of four groups: rider characteristics, maneuvers prior to the crash, temporal and environmental characteristics, and road characteristics. The study employed random parameters logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances while also incorporating the temporal instability principle. The results revealed that the data related to motorcycle accidents on local roads between 2018 and 2020 exhibited temporal variation. Numerous variables were discovered to influence the means and variances of the unobserved factors that were identified as random parameters. Male riders, riders over 50 years old, foreign riders, and accidents that occurred at night with inadequate lighting were identified as the primary factors that increased the risk of fatalities. This paper presents a clear policy recommendation aimed at organizations and identifies the relevant stakeholders, including the Department of Land Transport, traffic police, local government organizations, and academic groups.


Asunto(s)
Accidentes de Tránsito , Motocicletas , Masculino , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Logísticos , Dispositivos de Protección de la Cabeza , Factores de Riesgo
14.
Perspect Psychol Sci ; 18(2): 416-427, 2023 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36027892

RESUMEN

Twin and adoption studies compare the similarities of people with differing degrees of relatedness to estimate genetic and environmental contributions to trait population variance. The analytic workhorse of these kinds of variance-focused designs is the intraclass correlation, which estimates similarity between pairs of individuals. Group means, by contrast, play no overt role in estimating genetic and environmental influences. Although this focus on variance has made very important contributions to understanding psychological characteristics, we contend that the exclusion of mean effects from behavioral genetic designs may have obscured key environmental influences and impeded full appreciation of the ubiquity and nature of gene-environment interplay in human outcomes. We provide empirical examples already in the literature and a theoretical framework for thinking through the incorporation of mean effects using largely forgotten, non-Mendelian theory regarding how genes influence human outcomes. We conclude that the field needs to develop models capable of fully incorporating mean effects into twin and adoption studies.


Asunto(s)
Interacción Gen-Ambiente , Genética de Población , Humanos , Causalidad
15.
Biochem Med (Zagreb) ; 32(3): 030402, 2022 Oct 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36277430

RESUMEN

In laboratory medicine, mathematical equations are frequently used to calculate various parameters including bias, imprecision, measurement uncertainty, sigma metric (SM), creatinine clearance, LDL-cholesterol concentration, etc. Mathematical equations have strict limitations and cannot be used in all situations and are not open to manipulations. Recently, a paper "Bias estimation for Sigma metric calculation: Arithmetic mean versus quadratic mean" was published in Biochemia Medica. In the paper, the author criticized the approach of taking the arithmetic mean of the multiple biases to obtain a single bias and proposed a quadratic method to estimate the overall bias using external quality assurance services (EQAS) data for SM calculation. This approach does not fit the purpose and it should be noted that using the correct equation in calculations is as important as using the correct reagent in the measurement of the analytes, therefore before using an equation, its suitability should be checked and confirmed.


Asunto(s)
Laboratorios , Humanos , Control de Calidad , Creatinina , Sesgo , LDL-Colesterol
16.
Traffic Inj Prev ; 23(7): 398-403, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35896030

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Florida ranks among the states with the highest rates of work-zone crashes involving large trucks. With significant emphasis in Florida's strategic highway safety plan, understanding work-zone crashes involving large trucks and resulting injury severities is critically important. This study investigated the contributing factors influencing the driver injury severity of single-large-truck crashes in work zones, benchmarked against non-work zones in Florida. METHODS: Using work-zone and non-work-zone crash data from 2011 to 2019 (inclusive), driver-injury severities in single-large trucks crashes were studied using random parameters logit models that allow for possible heterogeneity in the means and variances of parameter estimates. The available data included a wide variety of factors known to influence driver injury severity, including spatial and temporal; vehicle and traffic; roadway, harmful events, and driver characteristics. RESULTS: The model estimates produced fundamental shift in unobserved heterogeneity for work-zone and non-work-zone crashes involving single large trucks. More importantly, the likelihood of large truck drivers' injury severity is about fourteen-times higher on rural and six-times higher on urban interstate highways and 1.3 times lower with 10 miles per hour below the posted speed limit for large trucks inside work zones relative to non-work zones. The model results also indicate that the likelihood of severe driver injury is higher for heavy truck (more than 26000 pounds), a lane-shift work-zone configuration, and careless driving in work-zone crashes involving single large trucks. CONCLUSIONS: The model findings add valuable insights to have profound effects in the safety performance of large trucks and in-vehicle safety technologies, such as, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, for careful driving along the work-zone segments with lower speed, leading to Automated Driving Systems. These measures include various policy-related safety countermeasures including revisiting traffic control plan for lane-shift on highways specifically for large trucks and developing training modules for Florida registered truck drivers.


Asunto(s)
Conducción de Automóvil , Heridas y Lesiones , Accidentes de Tránsito , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Vehículos a Motor , Población Rural
17.
Educ Psychol Meas ; 82(4): 617-642, 2022 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35754617

RESUMEN

This article extends multivariate generalizability theory (MGT) to tests with different random-effects designs for each level of a fixed facet. There are numerous situations in which the design of a test and the resulting data structure are not definable by a single design. One example is mixed-format tests that are composed of multiple-choice and free-response items, with the latter involving variability attributable to both items and raters. In this case, two distinct designs are needed to fully characterize the design and capture potential sources of error associated with each item format. Another example involves tests containing both testlets and one or more stand-alone sets of items. Testlet effects need to be taken into account for the testlet-based items, but not the stand-alone sets of items. This article presents an extension of MGT that faithfully models such complex test designs, along with two real-data examples. Among other things, these examples illustrate that estimates of error variance, error-tolerance ratios, and reliability-like coefficients can be biased if there is a mismatch between the user-specified universe of generalization and the complex nature of the test.

18.
Traffic Inj Prev ; 23(6): 321-326, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35639608

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: Alcohol-impaired driving (A-ID) crashes have been acknowledged as fatality-concentrated while there is a limited understanding of how contributors relating to A-ID influence crash severity and lead to more severe injuries in rural areas. The current paper utilized North Carolina crash data to investigate the unobserved heterogeneity and temporal stability of the rural single-vehicle A-ID crash injury-severity determinants over a five-year period from 2014-2018. METHODS: Crash injury severities were estimated using a group of random parameters logit models in the means and variances with three categories of injury-severity determined as outcome variables including no injury, minor injury, and severe injury. Explanatory variables were selected across multiple factors that could be classified as roadway characteristics, environmental characteristics, crash characteristics, temporal characteristics, vehicle characteristics and driver characteristics. The temporal stability of the models was examined through a series of likelihood ratio tests. Marginal effects were also adopted to analyze the temporal stability of the explanatory variables. RESULTS: The result uncovers an overall temporal instability. Some contributors present relatively temporal stability such as female, turning, passenger car, motorcycle, vehicle age (5-9 years old), speed limit (<45 mph), curved segment, dry road surface, animal collision and overturned collision. Curved segment and dry road surface are found to consistently increase the possibility of severe injuries in rural alcohol-involved crashes. CONCLUSIONS: This paper can provide insights into preventing single-vehicle A-ID crashes and could potentially facilitate the development of single-vehicle A-ID crash injury mitigation policies in rural areas. More studies could be conducted adopting the advanced data-driven methods for A-ID crash prediction.


Asunto(s)
Conducción de Automóvil , Conducir bajo la Influencia , Heridas y Lesiones , Accidentes de Tránsito , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Población Rural , Heridas y Lesiones/epidemiología
19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35627360

RESUMEN

The existing research on motorcycle safety has shown that single-vehicle motorcycle crashes (SVMC) account for a higher fatality rate than other types of crashes. Also, motorcycle safety has become one of the critical traffic safety issues in many developing countries, such as Pakistan, due to the growing number of motorcycles and lack of sufficient relevant infrastructure. However, the available literature on SVMC and motorcycle safety in developing countries is limited. Therefore, the present study attempted to investigate the factors that contribute to the injury severity of SVMC in a developing country, Pakistan. For this purpose, a random parameter logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances is developed using two years of data extracted from the road traffic injury research project in Karachi city, Pakistan. The study's findings show that the presence of pillion passengers and young motorcyclists indicators result in random parameters with heterogeneity in their means and variances. The study's results also reveal that the summer, morning time, weekends, older motorcyclists, collisions with fixed objects, speeding, and overtaking are positively, while younger motorcyclists and the presence of pillion passengers are negatively associated with fatal crashes. More importantly, in the particular Pakistan's context, female pillion passenger clothes trapped in the wheel, riding under the influence, intersections, U-turns, and collisions due to loss of control are also found to significantly influence the injury severity of SVMC. Based on these research findings, multiple appropriate countermeasures are recommended to enhance motorcycle safety in Pakistan and other developing countries with similar problems.


Asunto(s)
Accidentes de Tránsito , Motocicletas , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Pakistán/epidemiología , Estaciones del Año
20.
BMC Genomics ; 23(1): 286, 2022 Apr 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35397494

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The influence of linkage disequilibrium (LD), epistasis, and inbreeding on genotypic variance continues to be an important area of investigation in genetics and evolution. Although the current knowledge about biological pathways and gene networks indicates that epistasis is important in determining quantitative traits, the empirical evidence for a range of species and traits is that the genotypic variance is most additive. This has been confirmed by some recent theoretical studies. However, because these investigations assumed linkage equilibrium, considered only additive effects, or used simplified assumptions for two- and higher-order epistatic effects, the objective of this investigation was to provide additional information about the impact of LD and epistasis on genetic variances in noninbred and inbred populations, using a simulated dataset. RESULTS: In general, the most important component of the genotypic variance was additive variance. Because of positive LD values, after 10 generations of random crosses there was generally a decrease in all genetic variances and covariances, especially the nonepistatic variances. Thus, the epistatic variance/genotypic variance ratio is inversely proportional to the LD level. Increasing inbreeding increased the magnitude of the additive, additive x additive, additive x dominance, and dominance x additive variances, and decreased the dominance and dominance x dominance variances. Except for duplicate epistasis with 100% interacting genes, the epistatic variance/genotypic variance ratio was proportional to the inbreeding level. In general, the additive x additive variance was the most important component of the epistatic variance. Concerning the genetic covariances, in general, they showed lower magnitudes relative to the genetic variances and positive and negative signs. The epistatic variance/genotypic variance ratio was maximized under duplicate and dominant epistasis and minimized assuming recessive and complementary epistasis. Increasing the percentage of epistatic genes from 30 to 100% increased the epistatic variance/genotypic variance ratio by a rate of 1.3 to 12.6, especially in inbred populations. The epistatic variance/genotypic variance ratio was maximized in the noninbred and inbred populations with intermediate LD and an average allelic frequency of the dominant genes of 0.3 and in the noninbred and inbred populations with low LD and an average allelic frequency of 0.5. CONCLUSIONS: Additive variance is in general the most important component of genotypic variance. LD and inbreeding have a significant effect on the magnitude of the genetic variances and covariances. In general, the additive x additive variance is the most important component of epistatic variance. The maximization of the epistatic variance/genotypic variance ratio depends on the LD level, degree of inbreeding, epistasis type, percentage of interacting genes, and average allelic frequency.


Asunto(s)
Epistasis Genética , Modelos Genéticos , Frecuencia de los Genes , Variación Genética , Desequilibrio de Ligamiento
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