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OBJECTIVES: to document existing geographical inequalities in health in the city of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy), examining the association between area socioeconomic disadvantage and health outcomes, with the aim to suggest policy action to tackle them. DESIGN: the analysis used an ecological framework; multiple health indicators were considered in the analysis; socioeconomic disadvantage was measured through indicators such as low education, unemployment, immigration status, and housing crowding. For each municipal statistical area, Bayesian Relative Risks of the outcomes (using the Besag-Yorkand-Mollié model) were plotted on the city map. To evaluate the association between social determinants and health outcomes, Spearman correlation coefficients were estimated. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: residents in the City of Milan aged between 30 and 75 years who were residing in Milan as of 01.01.2019, grouped in 88 statistical areas. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: all-cause mortality, type-2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, neoplasms, respiratory diseases, metabolic syndrome, antidepressants use, polypharmacy, and multimorbidity. RESULTS: the results consistently demonstrated a significant association between socioeconomic disadvantage and various health outcomes, with low education exhibiting the strongest correlations. Neoplasms displayed an inverse social gradient, while the relationship with antidepressant use varied. CONCLUSIONS: these findings provide valuable insights into the distribution of health inequalities in Milan and contribute to the existing literature on the social determinants of health. The study highlights the need for targeted interventions to address disparities and promote equitable health outcomes. The results can serve to inform the development of effective public health strategies and policies aimed at reducing health inequalities in the city.

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Through a thematic analysis of firsthand posts from 258 abuse survivors in online forums from 2016 to 2023, this research examines the barriers that Chinese children encounter when disclosing sexual abuse. The anonymous narratives shed light on the motives behind survivors' reluctance to reveal abuse, the outcomes following disclosure, and the wider implications for survivors and their families under culture. The findings underscore the need for early intervention upon disclosure, aiming to safeguard children from further harm and foster the development of an effective child protection framework.

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BACKGROUND: Pandemic income support payments have been speculatively linked to an increased incidence of illicit drug poisoning (overdose). However, existing research is limited. METHODS: Collating Canadian Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) payment data with data on paramedic attended overdose and illicit drug toxicity deaths for the province of British Columbia at the Local Health Area (LHA) level, we conducted a correlation analysis to compare overdose rates before, during and after active CERB disbursement. RESULTS: There were 20,014,270 CERB-entitled weeks identified among residents of British Columbia for the duration of the pandemic response program. Approximately 52 % of all CERB entitled weeks in the study were among females and approximately 48 % were among males. Paramedic-attended overdoses increased uniformly across the pre-CERB, CERB and post-CERB periods, while illicit drug toxicity deaths sharply increased and then remained high over the period of the study. Correlation analyses between overdose and CERB-entitled weeks approached zero for both paramedic-attended overdoses and illicit drug toxicity deaths. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that attributing the pandemic increase in overdose to income support payments is unfounded. Sustained levels of unacceptably high non-fatal and fatal drug poisonings that further increased at the start of the pandemic are reflective of complex pre-existing and pandemic-driven changes to overdose risk.

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In the mangrove growth area, the availability of high-quality optical images is limited throughout the year due to cloud cover, precipitation, and sensor revisiting cycles. In the worst-case scenario, severe conditions may lead to the unavailability of, causing variations in monitoring times for mangroves across different years. This significantly impacts the accuracy of long-term sequence monitoring of mangrove dynamics. To monitor long-term dynamic changes in mangrove spatial distribution, area, and ecology we reconstructed comprehensive time series images from 2000 to 2020 based on Landsat, Sentinel-2, and moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) images. We employed neighborhood-similar pixel interpolator (NSPI) strip filling, Fmask and temporal NSPI cloud-removal and filling, and FSDAF model to monitor the long-term dynamic changes in mangrove spatial distribution, area, and ecology. All three methods effectively reconstructed the images, with the FSDAF model exhibiting the greatest accuracy. The reconstructed images suggested that the mangroves demonstrated an overall growth trend from 2000 to 2020, with an increase from 3796.74 ha to 7676.89 ha, an increase of approximately 3880.15 ha over 20 years. Despite this growth, the number of patches gradually increased, the degree of fragmentation consistently worsened, and the landscape shape gradually became irregular. The study area demonstrated pronounced overall heterogeneity, with a gradually increase in the degree of dispersion, indicating evident overall instability. Additionally, the centroid of the mangroves moved towards the ocean, which complicated their growth environment and posed a serious threat to their growth and recovery. Anthropogenic disturbance is the main factor driving changes in mangrove areas. Driving factors that affected the change in mangrove areas were ranked as follows: GDP > highway mileage > population density > precipitation > humidity > wind speed > sunshine > temperature. The results of this study provide comprehensive data for the protection and restoration of mangroves.

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The fourth joint inter-agency report on integrated analysis of antimicrobial consumption (AMC) and the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in bacteria from humans and food-producing animals (JIACRA) addressed data obtained by the Agencies' EU-wide surveillance networks for 2019-2021. The analysis also sought to identify whether significant trends in AMR and AMC were concomitant over 2014-2021. AMC in both human and animal sectors, expressed in mg/kg of estimated biomass, was compared at country and European level. In 2021, the total AMC was assessed at 125.0 mg/kg of biomass for humans (28 EU/EEA countries, range 44.3-160.1) and 92.6 mg/kg of biomass for food-producing animals (29 EU/EEA countries, range 2.5-296.5). Between 2014 and 2021, total AMC in food-producing animals decreased by 44%, while in humans, it remained relatively stable. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to study associations between AMC and AMR for selected combinations of bacteria and antimicrobials. Positive associations between consumption of certain antimicrobials and resistance to those substances in bacteria from both humans and food-producing animals were observed. For certain combinations of bacteria and antimicrobials, AMR in bacteria from humans was associated with AMR in bacteria from food-producing animals which, in turn, was related to AMC in animals. The relative strength of these associations differed markedly between antimicrobial class, microorganism and sector. For certain antimicrobials, statistically significant decreasing trends in AMC and AMR were concomitant for food-producing animals and humans in several countries over 2014-2021. Similarly, a proportion of countries that significantly reduced total AMC also registered increasing susceptibility to antimicrobials in indicator E. coli from food-producing animals and E. coli originating from human invasive infections (i.e., exhibited 'complete susceptibility' or 'zero resistance' to a harmonised set of antimicrobials). Overall, the findings suggest that measures implemented to reduce AMC in food-producing animals and in humans have been effective in many countries. Nevertheless, these measures need to be reinforced so that reductions in AMC are retained and further continued, where necessary. This also highlights the importance of measures that promote human and animal health, such as vaccination and better hygiene, thereby reducing the need for use of antimicrobials.

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OBJECTIVES: To describe the burden and causes of disease in Mexican women in 1990 and 2019, based on the data disaggregation by age groups and states. Also, to evaluate the relationship of years of healthy life lost with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index. STUDY DESIGN: This was an ecological descriptive study. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study study, the age-standardized and age-specific rates for mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were reported. RESULTS: At the national level, the all-cause age-standardized rates for Mexican women decreased in mortality -28.8%; YLLs -39.8%; YLDs -1.3%; and DALYs -26.2%. For 2019, the indicators analyzed had the worst performances in Chiapas and Chihuahua, while women in Sinaloa had the lowest age-standardized rates. In 1990, it is worth noting that there was a remarkable presence of CDs, mainly in YLLs. In all age groups, diabetes mellitus was the leading cause of DALYs in Mexico's 32 states, followed by CKD (in 24 states), and ischemic heart disease (in 18 states). In both 1990 and 2019, a negative and statistically significant correlation between DALYs and the HAQ Index was evident. The correlation between DALYs and the SDI was only significant in 1990. CONCLUSION: In the last 30 years, the burden of disease on Mexican women has undergone substantial changes that reflect progress in the improvement of their health conditions. However, the current scenario is complex because the convergence of communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, and injuries is evident, which implies important challenges that must be addressed as soon as possible.

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The scientific community has entered an era of big data. However, with big data comes big responsibilities, and best practices for how data are contributed to databases have not kept pace with the collection, aggregation, and analysis of big data. Here, we rigorously assess the quantity of data for specific leaf area (SLA) available within the largest and most frequently used global plant trait database, the TRY Plant Trait Database, exploring how much of the data were applicable (i.e., original, representative, logical, and comparable) and traceable (i.e., published, cited, and consistent). Over three-quarters of the SLA data in TRY either lacked applicability or traceability, leaving only 22.9% of the original data usable compared with the 64.9% typically deemed usable by standard data cleaning protocols. The remaining usable data differed markedly from the original for many species, which led to altered interpretation of ecological analyses. Though the data we consider here make up only 4.5% of SLA data within TRY, similar issues of applicability and traceability likely apply to SLA data for other species as well as other commonly measured, uploaded, and downloaded plant traits. We end with suggested steps forward for global ecological databases, including suggestions for both uploaders to and curators of databases with the hope that, through addressing the issues raised here, we can increase data quality and integrity within the ecological community.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on COVID-19 infection and hospitalisation at the population-level, and to assess the indirect effects of vaccination in the province of Quebec, Canada. METHODS: We performed a time-stratified, neighborhood-level ecologic study. The exposure was neighborhood-level vaccination (primary series) coverage; outcomes were COVID-19 infection and hospitalisation rates. We used robust Poisson regression to estimate weekly relative rates of infection and hospitalisation versus vaccination. RESULTS: Higher vaccination coverage was associated with lower COVID-19 infection rates from July 18-December 4 for the year 2021 (Delta period) (RR≈0.46 [0.39; 0.54] - 0.94 [0.83; 1.05], 85-100% vs. 60-74% coverage). From December 5-December 25, this association reversed (RR≈1.28 [1.16; 1.41] - 1.41 [1.31; 1.52]), possibly due to the Omicron variant, social behaviors and accumulation of susceptibles in more vaccinated neighborhoods. Vaccine impact against hospitalisation was maintained throughout (RR≈0.43 [0.29; 0.65] - 0.88 [0.64; 1.22]). Vaccination provided substantial indirect protection (RR≈0.43 [0.34; 0.54] - 0.81 [0.65; 1.03]). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed the protective impact of vaccination against severe disease regardless of variant, at the population level. Ecological analyses are a valuable strategy to evaluate vaccination programs. Population-level effects can have substantial effects and should be accounted for in public health and vaccination program planning.

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BACKGROUND: To develop effective public health policies, programs, and services tailored to the unique sexual health needs of migrant populations, it is essential to understand the myriad socio-ecological factors that influence their sexual health. This qualitative community-based participatory study aimed to explore factors influencing migrants' sexual health at different socio-ecological levels in a Canadian setting. METHODS: Participants (n = 34) from African, Caribbean, Black; Latin American; South Asian; Middle Eastern, as well as East and Southeast Asian communities were recruited across Manitoba using printed flyers, community organizations, and social media. Individual interviews, conducted in English, French, Mandarin, Cantonese, Tagalog, Arabic, Swahili, and Tigrinya languages, explored questions relating to sexual health and experiences with service providers. Data were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis and socio-ecological systems theory. RESULTS: The study uncovered a range of individual, interpersonal, institutional, and socio-structural factors that affect the sexual health of migrants in Manitoba. Individual factors such as sexual health knowledge and testing practices, interpersonal factors like the type of sexual partnerships, institutional factors such as sexual health information needs, language, and service access barriers, and structural-level factors like gender norms and HIV stigma exerted a significant influence on the sexual health practices of study respondents. Sexual health awareness was influenced by various factors including length of time in Canada and involvement in community-based services. Study respondents identified issues related to access to HIV testing and sexual health information, as well as language barriers, racism in healthcare, and HIV stigma. Gender and social norms played a significant role in discouraging communication about sex and safer sex practices. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the complex interplay of factors that influence the sexual health of migrants, and the need for targeted sexual health awareness campaigns and provision of sexual health information in languages spoken by migrants. Public health interventions focused on improving the sexual health outcomes for migrants should consider the socio-ecological elements identified in this study. These findings can inform public health campaigns to increase access to services and address sexual health inequities among migrant communities in Canada.

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Objectives: The objective of this paper is to analyse the socio-demographic and spatial patterns associated with bowel cancer screening in Australia. Despite the importance of screening in reducing mortality via early intervention, it remains the case that overall screening rates are uneven between different socio-demographic groups and geographic regions. Notwithstanding this, there is limited knowledge in Australia regarding the interplay between socio-demographics and geography in relation to bowel cancer screening. Thus, this paper explores the socio-demographic and spatial patterns of screening participation across Australian regions to better inform public health policy and programs. Study design: This is a nationwide ecological study based on aggregate spatial data. Methods: An ecological study is conducted using bowel cancer screening rates and selected socio-demographic data measured at the Statistical Area 3 level. Geographically weighted regression software is used to conduct global and spatial regression analysis. Results: The global regression results show that higher rates of screening participation were associated with employment/education disengagement and volunteering while in contrast, lower rates of participation were associated with higher rates of indigenous populations, people with chronic health conditions, and people with poor English skills. Considering the spatial analysis, the analysis shows that once the spatial non-stationarity in the data is considered the influence of the variables shown to be significant in the global model, has significant spatial variability. Conclusion: From a public health perspective, addressing shortfalls in bowel cancer screening participation is an important priority. In order to understand differences in participation rates it is important to consider both socio-demographic factors as well as the geographic or spatial distribution of these factors.

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BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests that conditions with decreased morning and increased evening light exposure, including shift work, daylight-saving time, and eveningness, are associated with elevated mortality and suicide risk. Given that the alignment between the astronomical, biological, and social time varies across a time zone, with later-shifted daylight exposure in the western partition, we hypothesized that western time zone partitions would have higher suicide rates than eastern partitions. METHODS: United States (U.S.) county-level suicide and demographic data, from 2010 to 2018, were obtained from a Centers for Disease Control database. Using longitude and latitude, counties were sorted into the western, middle, or eastern partition of their respective time zones, as well as the northern and southern halves of the U.S. Linear regressions were used to estimate the associations between suicide rates and time zone partitions, adjusting for gender, race, ethnicity, age group, and unemployment rates. RESULTS: Data were available for 2872 counties. Across the U.S., western partitions had statistically significantly higher rates of suicide compared to eastern partitions and averaged up to two additional yearly deaths per 100,000 people (p < .001). LIMITATIONS: Ecological design and limited adjustment for socioeconomic factors. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study of the relationship between longitude-based time zone partitions and suicide. The results were consistent with the hypothesized elevated suicide rates in the western partitions, and concordant with previous reports on cancer mortality and transportation fatalities. The next step is to retest the hypothesis with individual-level data, accounting for latitude, photoperiodic changes, daylight-saving time, geoclimatic variables, physical and mental health indicators, as well as socioeconomic adversity and protection.

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Infectious intestinal disease (IID) studies conducted at different levels of the surveillance pyramid have found heterogeneity in the association of socioeconomic deprivation with illness. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between socioeconomic deprivation and incidence of IID by certain gastrointestinal pathogens reported to UKHSA. Data were extracted from 2015 to 2018 for Salmonella, Campylobacter, Shigella, Giardia species, and norovirus. Rates were calculated per 100,000 person-years by the index of multiple deprivation quintile, and an ecological analysis was conducted using univariant and multvariable regression models for each pathogen. Incidence of Campylobacter, and Giardia species decreased with increasing deprivation. Conversely, the incidence of norovirus, non-typhoidal Salmonella, Salmonella typhi/paratyphi, Shigella species increased with increasing deprivation. Multivariable analysis results showed that higher deprivation was significantly associated with higher odds of higher number of cases for Shigella flexneri, norovirus and S. typhi/paratyphi. Infections most associated with deprivation were those transmitted by person-to-person spread, and least associated were those transmitted by zoonotic contamination of the environment. Person-to-person transmission can be contained by implementing policies targeting over-crowding and poor hygiene. This approach is likely to be the most effective solution for the reduction of IID.

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Little has been reported about hardening nor softening indicators in Africa where smoking prevalence is low. We aimed to examine the determinants of hardening in nine African countries. We conducted two separate analyses using data from the most recent Global Adult Tobacco Survey in Botswana, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda (total sample of 72,813 respondents): 1) multilevel logistic regression analysis to assess individual and country-level factors associated with hardcore, high dependence, and light smoking.; 2) a Spearman-rank correlation analysis to describe the association between daily smoking and hardcore, high dependence, and light smoking at an ecological level. Age-standardized daily smoking prevalence varied from 37.3% (95 %CI: 34.4, 40.3) (Egypt) to 6.1% (95 %CI: 3.5, 6.3) (Nigeria) among men; and 2.3% (95 %CI: 0.7, 3.9) (Botswana) to 0.3% (95 %CI: 0.2, 0.7) (Senegal) among women. The proportion of hardcore and high-dependence smokers was higher among men whereas for light smokers the proportion was higher among women. At the individual level, higher age and lower education groups had higher odds of being hardcore smokers and having high dependence. Smoke-free home policies showed decreased odds of both being hardcore and highly dependent smokers daily smoking correlated weakly and negatively with hardcore smoking (r = -0.243, 95 %CI: -0.781, 0.502) among men and negatively with high dependence (r = -0.546, 95 %CI: -0.888, 0.185) and positively with light smokers (r = 0.252, 95 %CI: -0.495, 0.785) among women. Hardening determinants varied between the countries in the African region. Wide sex differentials and social inequalities in heavy smoking do exist and should be tackled.

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Introduction: Intimate partner violence (IPV) affects 1 in 3 women and poses a major human rights threat and public health burden, yet there is great variation in risk globally. Whilst individual risk factors are well-studied, less research has focussed on the structural and contextual drivers of IPV and how these co-occur to create contexts of high risk. Methods: We compiled IPV drivers from freely-accessible global country-level data sources and combined gender inequality, natural disasters, conflict, colonialism, socioeconomic development and inequality, homicide and social discrimination in a latent class analysis, and identified underlying 'risk contexts' based on fit statistics and theoretical plausibility (N=5,732 country-years; 190 countries). We used multinomial regression to compare risk contexts according to: proportion of population with disability, HIV/AIDS, refugee status, and mental health disorders; proportion of men with drug use disorders; men's alcohol consumption; and population median age (N=1,654-5,725 country-years). Finally, we compared prevalence of physical and/or sexual IPV experienced by women in the past 12 months across risk contexts (N=3,175 country-years). Results: Three distinct risk contexts were identified: 1) non-patriarchal egalitarian, low rates of homicide; 2) patriarchal post-colonial, high rates of homicide; 3) patriarchal post-colonial conflict and disaster-affected. Compared to non-patriarchal egalitarian contexts, patriarchal post-colonial contexts had a younger age distribution and a higher prevalence of drug use disorders, but a lower prevalence of mental health disorders and a smaller refugee population. IPV risk was highest in the two patriarchal post-colonial contexts and associated with country income classification. Conclusions: Whilst our findings support the importance of gender norms in shaping women's risk of experiencing IPV, they also point towards an association with a history of colonialism. To effectively address IPV for women in high prevalence contexts, structural interventions and policies are needed that address not only gender norms, but also broader structural inequalities arising from colonialism.

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Current literature suggests that food insecurity increases child maltreatment risk. Yet, existing evidence is limited to individual-level associations among low-income, high-risk populations based on local, mostly urban data. This study aims to generalize prior findings to community-level associations in general populations, using national data including all urban-rural areas. We examined, for the first time, if food insecurity rates increase child maltreatment report (CMR) rates at the county level after controlling for potential confounders. We examined both within-community longitudinal changes (i.e., within-effects) and inter-community differences (i.e., between-effects) of food insecurity rates and their associations with CMR rates. We also examined differences by age, sex, race/ethnicity, maltreatment type, and urbanicity. We constructed longitudinal county-level data by linking multiple national databases, including all substantiated and unsubstantiated CMR records, the Map the Meal Gap's community food insecurity estimates, and Census data. The data covered over 96% of U.S. counties from 2009 to 2018. For analysis, we used within-between random effects models. Regarding between-effects, we found that in inter-community comparisons, higher food insecurity rates were significantly associated with increased CMR rates. This association was consistent by age, sex, maltreatment type, and urbanicity. For within-effects, we found that the association between longitudinal changes of food insecurity rates and CMR rates significantly differed by urbanicity. Specifically, longitudinal increases of food insecurity rates significantly increased CMR rates among large urban counties, but not among small urban and rural counties. Study findings highlight the importance of conducting further research to better understand the mechanisms through which food insecurity impact child maltreatment at both individual and community levels. Our community-level findings from general populations especially have significant implications for community-based programs and large-scale policies to achieve population-level impact on child well-being.

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BACKGROUND: Pervasive social and structural barriers-including national policies-inhibit HIV testing uptake among priority populations, including adolescents. We assessed the relationship between age-of-consent policies for HIV testing and adolescent HIV testing coverage in 51 low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We pooled data from household surveys (2010-2020) and calculated the weighted country-level prevalence of lifetime HIV testing separately for adolescent girls and boys (ages 15-19). We then abstracted age-of-consent requirements for HIV testing across countries. Using multivariable linear regression, we estimated the average difference in national HIV testing coverage estimates for adolescent girls and boys by age-of-consent restrictions for HIV testing. RESULTS: National HIV testing coverage estimates ranged from 0.7% to 72.5% among girls (median: 18.0%) and 0% to 73.2% among boys (median: 7.5%) in Pakistan and Lesotho, respectively. In adjusted models, HIV testing coverage in countries requiring parental consent for individuals <18 years was, on average, 9.4 percentage-points (pp) lower (95% confidence interval [95%CI] -17.9pp to -0.9pp) among girls and 9.3pp lower (95%CI: -17.3pp to -1.2pp) among boys, relative to countries with less restrictive policies (age-of-consent: ≤16 years). Compared to countries with less restrictive (age-of-consent: ≤14 years) policies, HIV testing prevalence was significantly lower among girls (ß -10.5pp, 95%CI: -19.7pp to -1.3pp) and boys (ß -10.5pp, 95%CI -19.2pp to -1.8pp) in countries with more restrictive (age-of-consent: 18 years) parental consent requirements. CONCLUSIONS: Age-of-consent policies are persistent obstacles to adolescent HIV testing. Repealing parental consent requirements for HIV testing is needed to expand coverage and accelerate progress towards global HIV treatment and prevention targets.

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The plant community of Dagestan pine forests, comprising 590 vascular plants species, was examined based on materials from field studies performed from 2012 to 2019. Taxonomic, biomorphological, florocoenotic, and geographical characteristics of the plant community showed its boreal and Mediterranean nature. Mesotrophic and eutrophic plants predominated in terms of soil fertility and mesophytes and mesoxerophytes, in terms of soil water availability. Species of different altitudinal belts, including forest, meadow, and mountain-steppe belts, were observed in the plant community of pine forests. The plant community included 22 species listed in the Red Books of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Dagestan, 82 relict species, and 76 endemics.

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PURPOSE: We examined how longitudinal changes and inter-community differences of food insecurity rates were associated with child maltreatment report (CMR) rates at the zip code level. We assessed these associations overall, by urbanicity, and within subgroups of age, sex, and maltreatment type. METHODS: We used Illinois statewide zip code-level data from 2011 to 2018. We measured CMR rates based on Illinois child protective services records and food insecurity rates from Feeding America's Map the Meal Gap. We conducted spatial linear modeling to account for spatial dependence with controls for various socioeconomic, demographic, care burden, and instability conditions of communities. RESULTS: Both longitudinal changes and inter-community differences of food insecurity rates were significantly associated with increased CMR rates overall and within all subgroups. These associations were significant among all large urban, small urban, and rural areas, while longitudinal changes of food insecurity rates had significantly stronger associations among small urban areas compared with other areas. CONCLUSIONS: Communities experiencing higher food insecurity had higher CMR rates. Increases in food insecurity over time were associated with increases in CMR rates. These associations were reproduced within subgroups of child age, sex, maltreatment type, and urbanicity. Attention and collaborative efforts are warranted for high food insecure communities.

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INTRODUCTION: Various statistical approaches can be used to deal with unmeasured confounding when estimating treatment effects in observational studies, each with its own pros and cons. This study aimed to compare treatment effects as estimated by different statistical approaches for two interventions in observational stroke care data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used prospectively collected data from the MR CLEAN registry including all patients (n = 3279) with ischemic stroke who underwent endovascular treatment (EVT) from 2014 to 2017 in 17 Dutch hospitals. Treatment effects of two interventions - i.e., receiving an intravenous thrombolytic (IVT) and undergoing general anesthesia (GA) before EVT - on good functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale ≤2) were estimated. We used three statistical regression-based approaches that vary in assumptions regarding the source of unmeasured confounding: individual-level (two subtypes), ecological, and instrumental variable analyses. In the latter, the preference for using the interventions in each hospital was used as an instrument. RESULTS: Use of IVT (range 66-87%) and GA (range 0-93%) varied substantially between hospitals. For IVT, the individual-level (OR ~ 1.33) resulted in significant positive effect estimates whereas in instrumental variable analysis no significant treatment effect was found (OR 1.11; 95% CI 0.58-1.56). The ecological analysis indicated no statistically significant different likelihood (ß = - 0.002%; P = 0.99) of good functional outcome at hospitals using IVT 1% more frequently. For GA, we found non-significant opposite directions of points estimates the treatment effect in the individual-level (ORs ~ 0.60) versus the instrumental variable approach (OR = 1.04). The ecological analysis also resulted in a non-significant negative association (0.03% lower probability). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Both magnitude and direction of the estimated treatment effects for both interventions depend strongly on the statistical approach and thus on the source of (unmeasured) confounding. These issues should be understood concerning the specific characteristics of data, before applying an approach and interpreting the results. Instrumental variable analysis might be considered when unobserved confounding and practice variation is expected in observational multicenter studies.

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BACKGROUND: Although it is reported in numerous interventional and observational studies, that a low-fat diet is an effective method to combat overweight and obesity, the relationship at the global population level is not well established. This study aimed to quantify the associations between worldwide per capita fat supply and prevalence of overweight and obesity and further classify this association based on per capita Gross National Income (GNI). METHODS: A total of 93 countries from four GNI groups were selected. Country-specific overweight and obesity prevalence data were retrieved from the most recent WHO Global Health Observatory database. Per capita supply of fat and calories were obtained from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization database; FAOSTAT, Food Balance Sheet for years 2014-2016. The categorizations of countries were done based on GNI based classification by the World Bank. RESULTS: Among the selected countries, the overweight prevalence ranged from 3.9% (India) to 78.8% (Kiribati), while obesity prevalence ranged from 3.6% (Bangladesh) to 46.0% (Kiribati). The highest and the lowest per capita fat supply from total calorie supply were documented in Australia (41.2%) and Madagascar (10.5%) respectively. A significant strong positive correlation was observed between the prevalence of overweight (r = 0.64, p < 0.001) and obesity (r = 0.59, p < 0.001) with per capita fat supply. The lower ends of both trend lines were densely populated by the low- and lower-middle-income countries and the upper ends of both lines were greatly populated by the high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Per capita fat supply per country is significantly associated with both prevalence of overweight and obesity.