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Background: This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027. Methods: Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends, while the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates. We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) Model, Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Model, Prophet, Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Hybrid Model, selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years. Results: Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend, with rates higher in men than in women. Higher incidence rates were observed in adults, particularly in the 30-39 age group. Moreover, the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend. Furthermore, in the best-performing NNAR(10, 1, 6)[12] model, the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023, increasing to 5314 by 2027. Conclusions: Hepatitis B remains a significant issue in Xiamen, necessitating further optimization of hepatitis B prevention and control measures. Moreover, targeted interventions are essential for adults with higher incidence rates.

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BACKGROUND: Small intestinal stromal tumors (SISTs) typically require surgical treatment. However, the impact of lymphadenectomy (LA) on long-term prognosis in patients remains unclear. Therefore, we plan to analyze the effect of LA on the prognosis of patients with SISTs using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. METHODS: Data on SISTs patients between 2000 and 2019 were obtained from the SEER database. Multiple imputation (MI) was employed to handle missing data, while propensity score matching (PSM) was conducted to mitigate selection bias in the comparative assessments between the LA group and the No-LA group. Kaplan-Meier analyses and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to evaluate both overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). RESULTS: A total of 2412 patients diagnosed with SISTs were included in the study, with 879 undergoing LA and 1533 not undergoing LA. There were no significant differences observed between the two cohorts concerning long-term OS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-1.13, P = 0.720) and CSS (HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.86-1.29, P = 0.622). After PSM, 1596 patients (798 in the LA group and 789 in the No-LA group) were matched for comparison. There was also no difference in long-term OS and CSS between the two groups. Subgroup analysis revealed that in the age group > 60 years, the CSS in the No-LA group was superior to that in the LA group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, M stage, marital status, and mitotic rate are significant risk factors influencing OS and CSS. CONCLUSIONS: Conducting LA in patients with SISTs does not enhance long-term prognosis. For patients aged over 60 years, it may be more advisable to refrain from performing LA.

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Background: Reinfection of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has raised concerns about how reliable immunity from infection and vaccination is. With mass testing for the virus halted, understanding the current prevalence of COVID-19 is crucial. This study investigated 1,191 public health workers at the Xiamen Center for Disease Control, focusing on changes in antibody titers and their relationship with individual characteristics. Methods: The study began by describing the epidemiological characteristics of the study participants. Multilinear regression (MLR) models were employed to explore the associations between individual attributes and antibody titers. Additionally, group-based trajectory models (GBTMs) were utilized to identify trajectories in antibody titer changes. To predict and simulate future epidemic trends and examine the correlation of antibody decay with epidemics, a high-dimensional transmission dynamics model was constructed. Results: Analysis of epidemiological characteristics revealed significant differences in vaccination status between infected and non-infected groups (χ2=376.706, P<0.05). However, the distribution of antibody titers among the infected and vaccinated populations was not significantly different. The MLR model identified age as a common factor affecting titers of immunoglobulin G (IgG), immunoglobulin M (IgM), and neutralizing antibody (NAb), while other factors showed varying impacts. History of pulmonary disease and hospitalization influenced IgG titer, and factors such as gender, smoking, family history of pulmonary diseases, and hospitalization impacted NAb titers. Age was the sole determinant of IgM titers in this study. GBTM analysis indicated a "gradual decline type" trajectory for IgG (95.65%), while IgM and NAb titers remained stable over the study period. The high-dimensional transmission dynamics model predicted and simulated peak epidemic periods in Xiamen City, which correlated with IgG decay. Age-group-specific simulations revealed a higher incidence and infection rate among individuals aged 30-39 years during both the second and third peaks, followed by those aged 40-49, 50-59, 18-29, and 70-79 years. Conclusions: Our study shows that antibody titer could be influenced by age, previous pulmonary diseases as well as smoking. Furthermore, the decline in IgG titers is consistent with epidemic trends. These findings emphasize the need for further exploration of these factors and the development of optimized self-protection countermeasures against reinfection.

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The Irano-Turanian region is one of the world's richest floristic regions and the centre of diversity for numerous xerophytic plant lineages. However, we still have limited knowledge on the timing of evolution and biogeographic history of its flora, and potential drivers of diversification remain underexplored. To fill this knowledge gap, we focus on the Eurasian genus Jurinea (ca. 200 species), one of the largest plant radiations that diversified in the region. We applied a macroevolutionary integrative approach to explicitly test diversification hypotheses and investigate the relative roles of geography vs. ecology and niche conservatism vs. niche lability in speciation processes. To do so, we gathered a sample comprising 77% of total genus richness and obtained data about (1) its phylogenetic history, recovering 502 nuclear loci sequences; (2) growth forms; (3) ecological niche, compiling data of 21 variables for more than 2500 occurrences; and (4) paleoclimatic conditions, to estimate climatic stability. Our results revealed that climate was a key factor in the evolutionary dynamics of Jurinea. The main diversification and biogeographic events that occurred during past climate changes, which led to colder and drier conditions, are the following: (1) the origin of the genus (10.7 Ma); (2) long-distance dispersals from the Iranian Plateau to adjacent regions (∼7-4 Ma); and (3) the diversification shift during Pliocene-Pleistocene Transition (ca. 3 Ma), when net diversification rate almost doubled. Our results supported the pre-adaptation hypothesis, i.e., the evolutionary success of Jurinea was linked to the retention of the ancestral niche adapted to aridity. Interestingly, the paleoclimatic analyses revealed that in the Iranian Plateau long-term climatic stability favoured old-lineage persistence, resulting in current high species richness of semi-arid and cold adapted clades; whereas moderate climate oscillations stimulated allopatric diversification in the lineages distributed in the Circumboreal region. In contrast, growth form lability and high niche disparity among closely related species in the Central Asian clade suggest adaptive radiation to mountain habitats. In sum, the radiation of Jurinea is the result of both adaptive and non-adaptive processes influenced by climatic, orogenic and ecological factors.

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OBJECTIVE: Vaccine effectiveness can measure herd immunity, but the effectiveness of inactivated vaccines in Xiamen remains unclear. Our study was designed to understand the herd immunity of the COVID-19 inactivated vaccine against the SARA-CoV-2 Delta variant in the real world of Xiamen. METHODS: We carried out a test-negative case-control study to explore the vaccine's effectiveness. Participants aged over 12 years were recruited. A logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of the vaccine among cases and controls. RESULTS: This outbreak began with factory transmission clusters, and spread to families and communities during the incubation period. Sixty percent of cases were confirmed in a quarantine site. A huge mass of confirmed cases (94.49%) was identified within three days, and nearly half of them had a low Ct value. Following an adjustment for age and sex, a single dose of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine yielded the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the overall case, of 57.01% (95% CI: -91.44~86.39%), the fully VE was 65.72% (95% CI: -48.69~88.63%) against COVID-19, 59.45% against moderate COVID-19 and 38.48% against severe COVID-19, respectively. The VE of fully vaccinated individuals was significantly higher in females than in males (73.99% vs. 46.26%). The VE among participants aged 19~40 and 41~61 years was 78.75% and 66.33%, respectively, which exceeds the WHO's minimal threshold. Nevertheless, the VE in people under 18 and over 60 years was not observed because of the small sample size. CONCLUSIONS: The single-dose vaccine had limited effectiveness in preventing infection of the Delta variant. The two doses of inactivated vaccine could effectively prevent infection, and clinical mild, moderate, and severe illness caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in people aged 18-60 years in the real world.

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Dubyaea DC. is a small genus of Asteraceae that is almost exclusively endemic to the Pan-Himalayan region. Within Dubyaea, phylogenetic relationships remain poorly understood. Here, our well-supported phylogeny based on Hyb-Seq data shows that all samples of Dubyaea in this study belong to a monophyletic group, which is sister to the clade of Soroseris, Syncalathium, and Nabalus. Dubyaea (s. str.) can be divided into three major clades, which are supported by flower color as well as morphological features of the stems and basal leaves. Based on our phylogenetic results, we performed biogeographic analyses and inferred that Dubyaea arose in the late Miocene in Hengduan Mountains and its eastern areas. Following its evolutionary origin, Dubyaea underwent diversification in situ as well as spread to the Himalayas.

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Based on the missing situation and actual needs of maritime search and rescue data, multiple imputation methods were used to construct complete data sets under different missing patterns. Probability density curves and overimputation diagnostics were used to explore the effects of multiple imputation. The results showed that the Data Augmentation (DA) algorithm had the characteristics of high operation efficiency and good imputation effect, but the algorithm was not suitable for data imputation when there was a high data missing rate. The EMB algorithm effectively restored the distribution of datasets with different data missing rates, and was less affected by the missing position; the EMB algorithm could obtain a good imputation effect even when there was a high data missing rate. Overimputation diagnostics could not only reflect the data imputation effect, but also show the correlation between different datasets, which was of great importance for deep data mining and imputation effect improvement. The Expectation-Maximization with Bootstrap (EMB) algorithm had a poor estimation effect on extreme data and failed to reflect the dataset's variability characteristics.

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Saussurea is one of the largest genera of the tribe Cardueae of Asteraceae, comprising about 460 species from the Northern Hemisphere with most species distributed in QTPss and adjacent areas. Here, we established a well-supported phylogenetic framework for Saussurea based on whole chloroplast genomes of 136 taxa plus 16 additional taxa of Cardueae using Bayesian inference and Maximum Likelihood. Our phylogenetic results are inconsistent with previous subgeneric classifications of Saussurea. We nearly completely delimited subgen. Eriocoryne, and found that subgen. Theodorea, subgen. Saussurea section Laguranthera and Rosulascentes are closely related to each other. Based on our phylogenetic results, we performed biogeographic analyses and inferred that the genus Saussurea arose during early-middle Miocene within the Hengduan Mountains. We expect that landscape heterogeneity within the QTPss and adjacent areas, such as the Hengduan Mountains, played an important role in the evolution of Saussurea. Following its evolutionary origin, the genus underwent rapid diversification in situs and dispersed northwards in several migrational patterns. Both continuous uplift of the QTPss and adjacent areas as well as global cooling since mid-Miocene probably led to geographic expansion and diffusion of Saussurea, with the latter, in particular, resulting in the northward dispersal.

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