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Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen.
Zhang, Ruixin; Mi, Hongfei; He, Tingjuan; Ren, Shuhao; Zhang, Renyan; Xu, Liansheng; Wang, Mingzhai; Su, Chenghao.
Afiliación
  • Zhang R; School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China.
  • Mi H; Department of Public Health, Zhongshan Hospital (Xiamen), Fudan University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China.
  • He T; Department of Public Health, Zhongshan Hospital (Xiamen), Fudan University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China.
  • Ren S; School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China.
  • Zhang R; School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China.
  • Xu L; Department of Endemic Disease and Chronic Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control, Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China.
  • Wang M; Department of Occupational Health and Poison Control, Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China.
  • Su C; Department of Public Health, Zhongshan Hospital (Xiamen), Fudan University, Xiamen City, Fujian Province, China.
Infect Dis Model ; 9(4): 1276-1288, 2024 Dec.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39224908
ABSTRACT

Background:

This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022, and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.

Methods:

Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends, while the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates. We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) Model, Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) Model, Prophet, Exponential Smoothing (ETS) Model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Hybrid Model, selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years.

Results:

Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend, with rates higher in men than in women. Higher incidence rates were observed in adults, particularly in the 30-39 age group. Moreover, the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend. Furthermore, in the best-performing NNAR(10, 1, 6)[12] model, the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023, increasing to 5314 by 2027.

Conclusions:

Hepatitis B remains a significant issue in Xiamen, necessitating further optimization of hepatitis B prevention and control measures. Moreover, targeted interventions are essential for adults with higher incidence rates.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Infect Dis Model Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: China
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Infect Dis Model Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: China Pais de publicación: China