RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common complication of cardiac surgery that is associated with higher morbidity, longer hospital stay, cognitive decline, and mortality. Preoperative assessments may help to identify patients´ POD risk. However, a standardized screening assessment for POD risk has not been established. DESIGN: Prospective observational FINd DElirium RIsk factors (FINDERI) study. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥50 years undergoing cardiac surgery. MEASUREMENTS: The primary aim was to analyze the predictive value of the Delirium Risk Screening Questionnaire (DRSQ) prior to cardiac surgery. Secondary aims are to investigate cognitive, frailty, and geriatric assessments, and to use data-driven machine learning (ML) in predicting POD. Predictive properties were assessed using receiver operating characteristics analysis and multivariate approaches (regularized LASSO regression and decision trees). RESULTS: We analyzed a data set of 504 patients (68.3 ± 8.2 years, 21.4% women) who underwent cardiac surgery. The incidence of POD was 21%. The preoperatively administered DRSQ showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.68 (95% CI 0.62, 0.73), and the predictive OR was 1.25 (95% CI 1.15, 1.35, p <0.001). Using a ML approach, a three-rule decision tree prediction model including DRSQ (score>7), Trail Making Test B (time>118), and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (score ≤ 22) was identified. The AUC of the three-rule decision tree on the training set was 0.69 (95% CI 0.63, 0.75) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51, 0.73) on the validation set. CONCLUSION: Both the DRSQ and the three-rule decision tree might be helpful in predicting POD risk before cardiac surgery.
Asunto(s)
Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Delirio , Complicaciones Posoperatorias , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , Anciano , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/efectos adversos , Delirio/diagnóstico , Delirio/epidemiología , Estudios Prospectivos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/diagnóstico , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/epidemiología , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Evaluación Geriátrica/métodos , Factores de Riesgo , Aprendizaje Automático , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Postoperative delirium is a common complication of cardiac surgery associated with higher morbidity, longer hospital stay, risk of cognitive decline, dementia, and mortality. Geriatric patients, patients undergoing cardiac surgery, and intensive care patients are at a high risk of developing postoperative delirium. Gold standard assessments or biomarkers to predict risk factors for delirium, cognitive decline, and dementia in patients undergoing cardiac surgery are not yet available. METHODS: The FINDERI trial (FINd DElirium RIsk factors) is a prospective, single-center, observational study. In total, 500 patients aged ≥ 50 years undergoing cardiac surgery at the Department of Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery of the University of Göttingen Medical Center will be recruited. Our primary aim is to validate a delirium risk assessment in context of cardiac surgery. Our secondary aims are to identify specific preoperative and perioperative factors associated with delirium, cognitive decline, and accelerated dementia after cardiac surgery, and to identify blood-based biomarkers that predict the incidence of postoperative delirium, cognitive decline, or dementia in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. DISCUSSION: This prospective, observational study might help to identify patients at high risk for delirium prior to cardiac surgery, and to identify important biological mechanisms by which cardiac surgery is associated with delirium. The predictive value of a delirium screening questionnaire in cardiac surgery might be revealed. Finally, the identification of specific blood biomarkers might help to predict delirium, cognitive decline, and dementia in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Ethics approval for this study was obtained from the IRB of the University of Göttingen Medical Center. The investigators registered this study in the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS; https://www.drks.de ) (DRKS00025095) on April 19th, 2021.