Potential occurrence of Zika from subtropical to temperate Argentina considering the basic reproduction number (R0)
Rev Panam Salud Publica
; 41, nov. 2017
Article
em En
| PAHOIRIS
| ID: phr-34437
Biblioteca responsável:
US1.1
ABSTRACT
Objective. To assess the potential occurrence of Zika transmission throughout Argentina by the mosquito Aedes aegypti considering the basic reproduction number (R0). Methods. A model originally developed for dengue was adapted for Zika. R0 was estimated as a function of seven parameters, three of them were considered temperature-dependent. Seasonal Zika occurrence was evaluated in 9 locations representing different climatic suitability for the vector. Data of diary temperatures were extracted and included in the model. A threshold of R0 = 1 was fixed for Zika occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the uncertainty around the results. Results. Zika transmission has the potential to occur in all studied locations at least in some moment of the year. In the northern region, transmission might be possible throughout the whole year or with an interruption in winter. The maximum R0 was estimated in 6.9, which means an average of 7 secondary cases from a primary case. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that during winter the transmission can only be excluded in the southern fringe of geographic distribution of the vector and in part of central Argentina. Conclusion. Zika virus has the potential to be transmitted in Argentina throughout the current geographic range of the mosquito vector. Although the transmission would be mainly seasonal, the possibility of winter transmission cannot be excluded in northern and central Argentina, meaning that there is a potential endemic maintenance of the disease.
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Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
04-international_org
Base de dados:
PAHOIRIS
Assunto principal:
Argentina
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Aedes
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Vetores de Doenças
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Infecção por Zika virus
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Modelos Epidemiológicos
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
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Argentina
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Article