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Effects of mobility, immunity and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Dominican Republic: a modelling study.
Finch, Emilie; Nilles, Eric J; Paulino, Cecilia Then; Skewes-Ramm, Ronald; Lau, Colleen L; Lowe, Rachel; Kucharski, Adam J.
Afiliação
  • Finch E; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
  • Nilles EJ; Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Paulino CT; Brigham & Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Skewes-Ramm R; Ministerio de Salud Pública y Asistencia Social, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
  • Lau CL; Ministerio de Salud Pública y Asistencia Social, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
  • Lowe R; School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
  • Kucharski AJ; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 37: 100860, 2024 Sep.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39281423
ABSTRACT

Background:

COVID-19 dynamics are driven by a complex interplay of factors including population behaviour, new variants, vaccination and immunity from prior infections. We quantify drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Dominican Republic, an upper-middle income country of 10.8 million people. We then assess the impact of the vaccination campaign implemented in February 2021, primarily using CoronaVac, in saving lives and averting hospitalisations.

Methods:

We fit an age-structured, multi-variant transmission dynamic model to reported deaths, hospital bed occupancy, and seroprevalence data until December 2021, and simulate epidemic trajectories under different counterfactual scenarios.

Findings:

We estimate that vaccination averted 7210 hospital admissions (95% credible interval, CrI 6830-7600), 2180 intensive care unit admissions (95% CrI 2080-2280) and 766 deaths (95% CrI 694-859) in the first 6 months of the campaign. If no vaccination had occurred, we estimate that an additional decrease of 10-20% in population mobility would have been required to maintain equivalent death and hospitalisation outcomes. We also found that early vaccination with CoronaVac was preferable to delayed vaccination using a product with higher efficacy.

Interpretation:

SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in the Dominican Republic were driven by a substantial accumulation of immunity during the first two years of the pandemic but, despite this, vaccination was essential in enabling a return to pre-pandemic mobility levels without considerable additional morbidity and mortality.

Funding:

Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Royal Society, US CDC and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE País/Região como assunto: Caribe ingles / Dominica / Republica dominicana Idioma: En Revista: Lancet Reg Health Am Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Reino Unido País de publicação: Reino Unido
Texto completo
Adicionar na Minha BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar no Google

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE País/Região como assunto: Caribe ingles / Dominica / Republica dominicana Idioma: En Revista: Lancet Reg Health Am Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Reino Unido País de publicação: Reino Unido