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Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study.
Moreira, Patrícia Vasconcelos Leitão; de Arruda Neta, Adélia da Costa Pereira; Ferreira, Flávia Emília Leite Lima; de Araújo, Jevuks Matheus; Rodrigues, Rômulo Eufrosino de Alencar; de Lima, Rafaela Lira Formiga Cavalcanti; Vianna, Rodrigo Pinheiro de Toledo; da Silva Neto, José Moreira; O'Flaherty, Martin.
Afiliação
  • Moreira PVL; Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
  • de Arruda Neta ADCP; Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
  • Ferreira FELL; Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
  • de Araújo JM; Department of Economy, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
  • Rodrigues REA; Department of Economy, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
  • de Lima RLFC; Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
  • Vianna RPT; Department of Nutrition, Federal University of Paraiba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
  • da Silva Neto JM; Technical School of Health of the Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa, Paraíba, Brazil.
  • O'Flaherty M; Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1275167, 2024.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38756893
ABSTRACT

Aims:

We adopted a modeling approach to predict the likely future prevalence of type 2 diabetes, taking into account demographic changes and trends in obesity and smoking in Brazil. We then used the model to estimate the likely future impact of different policy scenarios, such as policies to reduce obesity.

Methods:

The IMPACT TYPE 2 DIABETES model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity, and smoking trends to estimate future type 2 diabetes prevalence. We developed a model for the Brazilian population from 2006 to 2036. Data on the Brazilian population in relation to sex and age were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and data on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, obesity, and smoking were collected from the Surveillance of Risk and Protection Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (VIGITEL).

Results:

The observed prevalence of type 2 diabetes among Brazilians aged over 25 years was 10.8% (5.2-14.3%) in 2006, increasing to 13.7% (6.9-18.4%) in 2020. Between 2006 and 2020, the observed prevalence in men increased from 11.0 to 19.1% and women from 10.6 to 21.3%. The model forecasts a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2036 (27.0% overall, 17.1% in men and 35.9% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declines by 1% per year from 2020 to 2036 (Scenario 1), the prevalence of diabetes decreases from 26.3 to 23.7, which represents approximately a 10.0% drop in 16 years. If obesity declined by 5% per year in 16 years as an optimistic target (Scenario 2), the prevalence of diabetes decreased from 26.3 to 21.2, representing a 19.4% drop in diabetes prevalence.

Conclusion:

The model predicts an increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil. Even with ambitious targets to reduce obesity prevalence, type 2 diabetes in Brazil will continue to have a large impact on Brazilian public health.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 / Obesidade Limite: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Front Public Health Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Brasil País de publicação: Suíça
Texto completo
Adicionar na Minha BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar no Google

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 / Obesidade Limite: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Front Public Health Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Brasil País de publicação: Suíça