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The weekly P25 of the age of the influenza-like illness shows a higher correlation with COVID-19 mortality than rapid tests and could predict the evolution of COVID-19 pandemics in sentinel surveillance, Piura, Perú, 2021.
Ocaña Gutiérrez, Víctor Raúl; González Ramírez, Rodolfo Arturo; Ocaña Aguilar, Víctor Alexander; Ocaña Aguilar, Nadia Gabriela; Holguín Mauricci, Carlos Enrique.
Afiliação
  • Ocaña Gutiérrez VR; School of Medicine, Cesar Vallejo University, Piura, Perú.
  • González Ramírez RA; School of Medicine, Cesar Vallejo University, Piura, Perú.
  • Ocaña Aguilar VA; Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, National University of Cajamarca, Cajamarca, Perú.
  • Ocaña Aguilar NG; School of Medicine, Cesar Vallejo University, Piura, Perú.
  • Holguín Mauricci CE; Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, National University of Cajamarca, Cajamarca, Perú.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0295309, 2024.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38452053
ABSTRACT
GOAL To describe the dynamics of syndromic surveillance of ILI cases in seasonal and COVID-19 pandemic scenarios.

METHODOLOGY:

A descriptive study of the epidemiological behavior of ILI in the seasonal and COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. Of a sample of 16,231 cases of ILI from 2013 to 2021, the features of cases from 68 weeks before and during the pandemic were selected and compared; weekly endemic channels were built; data fluctuations on the trend of ILI cases were analyzed; and estimated weekly correlations between weekly P25 age, cases confirmed by rapid tests, and mortality from COVID-19. To analyze clinical-epidemiological and mortality data, Student's t test, Mann-Whitney U, Chi2, Spearman's Ro, polynomial, and multinomial regression with a 95% confidence interval were used.

RESULTS:

During the COVID-19 pandemic, those most affected with ILI were adults and the elderly; higher median age; autochthonous cases predominated; a lower proportion of other syndromes; delays in seeking care; and a higher rate of pneumonia attack than in the seasonal period (p< 0.01). Rapid tests (serological and antigenic) confirmed 52.7% as COVID-19. Two ILI pandemic waves were seasonally consistent with confirmed COVID-19 cases and district mortality with robust correlation (p<0.01) before and during the pandemic, especially the ILI weekly P25 age, which has a more robust correlation with mortality than ILI and rapid tests (p<0.01) whose endemic channels describe and could predict the evolution of the pandemic (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS:

The pandemic changed the clinical and epidemiological behavior of ILI, and the weekly P25 of age is a more robust indicator to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic than a rapid test and could predict its evolution.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Influenza Humana / COVID-19 Limite: Adult / Aged / Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Peru Idioma: En Revista: PLoS One Assunto da revista: CIENCIA / MEDICINA Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Estados Unidos
Texto completo
Adicionar na Minha BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar no Google

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Influenza Humana / COVID-19 Limite: Adult / Aged / Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Peru Idioma: En Revista: PLoS One Assunto da revista: CIENCIA / MEDICINA Ano de publicação: 2024 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Estados Unidos