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Temporal relationship between human and canine visceral leishmaniasis in an urban area in southeastern Brazil: An application of the ARIMAX model.
Braz, Mirian Silvia; Sáfadi, Thelma; Ferreira, Rafael Agostinho; Morais, Maria Helena Franco; Silva, Zoraia; Rocha, Christiane Maria Barcellos Magalhães da.
Afiliação
  • Braz MS; Faculdade de Zootecnia e Medicina Veterinária, Departamento de Medicina Veterinária, Universidade Federal de Lavras, CEP 37200-900 Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Sáfadi T; Instituto de Ciências Exatas, Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Lavras, CEP 37200-900 Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Ferreira RA; Instituto de Ciências Exatas, Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Lavras, CEP 37200-900 Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Morais MHF; Prefeitura de Belo Horizonte, Secretaria Municipal de Saúde, Diretoria de Zoonoses, CEP 30130-012 Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Silva Z; Rua Dr. Armando Amaral 247, CEP 37203-587 Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
  • Rocha CMBMD; Faculdade de Zootecnia e Medicina Veterinária, Departamento de Medicina Veterinária, Universidade Federal de Lavras, CEP 37200-900 Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Electronic address: rochac@ufla.br.
Prev Vet Med ; 215: 105921, 2023 Jun.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37149992
Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease of public and animal health importance. With the urbanization of the disease, there is evidence of a temporal correlation between the occurrence of human (HVL) and canine (CVL) visceral leishmaniasis, usually with cases in dogs preceding those in humans. In this context, the objective of this study was to develop a time series model suitable for canine-human transmission of Leishmania infantum. Monthly cases of HVL and CVL from 2006 to 2018 in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, were evaluated, and monthly health indicators were calculated for HVL and CVL, i.e., incidence coefficient (HVL_IC) and proportion of seropositive dogs (PSD), respectively. The temporal relationship was evaluated using an autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) model for two different periods (January 2006-August 2013 and September 2013-December 2018). During the 13 years studied, 1115 new cases of HVL and 103,358 dogs seropositive for CVL were recorded. HVL_IC and PSD exhibited decreasing trends throughout the first study period (January 2006-August 2013). According to the ARIMAX model adjusted for this period, there was a temporal relationship between HVL_IC and PSD, with HVL_IC being influenced by HVL_IC for the last two and five months and by PSD for the third previous month. For the second study period (September 2013-December 2018), it was not possible to fit an ARIMAX model. This study highlights the improvements made by VL surveillance since 2006 in Belo Horizonte and contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of the disease by public health policy-makers, doctors and veterinarians involved in the prevention and control of zoonoses.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Doenças do Cão / Leishmaniose Visceral Tipo de estudo: Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies Limite: Animals / Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Prev Vet Med Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Brasil País de publicação: Holanda
Texto completo
Adicionar na Minha BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar no Google

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Doenças do Cão / Leishmaniose Visceral Tipo de estudo: Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies Limite: Animals / Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Prev Vet Med Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Brasil País de publicação: Holanda