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[SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia]. / Modelo SIR de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia.
Manrique-Abril, Fred G; Agudelo-Calderon, Carlos A; González-Chordá, Víctor M; Gutiérrez-Lesmes, Oscar; Téllez-Piñerez, Cristian F; Herrera-Amaya, Giomar.
Afiliação
  • Manrique-Abril FG; FM: RN. AB. Ph. D. Salud Pública; Ph.D. Investigación Clínica. Investigador, Instituto de Salud Pública. Profesor Titular, Facultad de Enfermería. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Bogotá, Colombia. Universidad Pedagógica y tecnológica de Colombia. fgmanriquea@unal.edu.co.
  • Agudelo-Calderon CA; CA. MD. Periodista. M. Sc. Salud Pública.M. Sc. Ciencias. Instituto de Salud Pública. Facultad de Medicina. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Bogotá, Colombia. caagudeloc@unal.edu.co.
  • González-Chordá VM; VG: RN. M. Sc. Enfermería. Ph.D. Ciencias de la Salud. Profesor ayudante doctor. Departamento de Enfermería. Universitat Jaume I. España. vchorda@uji.es.
  • Gutiérrez-Lesmes O; OG. RN. Esp. Epidemiologia. M. Sc. Gestión Ambiental Sostenible. Ph. D(c). Epidemiologia. Profesor Asociado, Escuela de Salud Pública. Universidad de los Llanos. Villavicencio, Colombia. oagutierrez@unillanos.edu.co.
  • Téllez-Piñerez CF; CT. Estadístico. M. Sc. Ciencias Estadística. Ph.D(c). Ciencias. Estadística. Profesor, Universidad Santo Tomas. Bogotá, Colombia. cristiantellez@usantotomas.edu.co.
  • Herrera-Amaya G; GH. RN. M. Sc. Investigación en APD. Ph.D(c). Ciencias Enfermería. Profesora Asistente. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia. Grupo de Salud pública. giomar.herrera@uptc.edu.co.
Rev Salud Publica (Bogota) ; 22(2): 123-131, 2020 03 01.
Article em Es | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36753100
OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A SIR model with a deterministic approach was used to forecast the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. The states considered were susceptible (S), infectious (i) and recovered or deceased (R). Population data were obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) - Population Projections 2018-2020, released in January 2020-, and data on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the National Institute of Health. Different models were proposed varying the basic reproduction number (R0). RESULTS: Based on the cases reported by the Ministry of Health, 4 simulated environments were created in an epidemiological SIR model. The time series was extended until May 30, the probable date when 99% of the population will be infected. R0=2 is the basic reproduction number and the closest approximation to the behavior of the pandemic during the first 15 days since the first case report; the worst scenario would occur in the first week of April with R0=3. CONCLUSIONS: Further mitigation and suppression measures are necessary in the containment and sustained transmission phases, such as increased diagnostic capacity through testing and disinfection of populated areas and homes in isolation.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: COVID-19 Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies / Screening_studies Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Colombia Idioma: Es Revista: Rev Salud Publica (Bogota) Assunto da revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Colômbia
Texto completo
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: COVID-19 Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies / Screening_studies Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Colombia Idioma: Es Revista: Rev Salud Publica (Bogota) Assunto da revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Colômbia