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[SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia]. / Modelo SIR de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Colombia.
Manrique-Abril, Fred G; Agudelo-Calderon, Carlos A; González-Chordá, Víctor M; Gutiérrez-Lesmes, Oscar; Téllez-Piñerez, Cristian F; Herrera-Amaya, Giomar.
Afiliação
  • Manrique-Abril FG; FM: RN. AB. Ph. D. Salud Pública; Ph.D. Investigación Clínica. Investigador, Instituto de Salud Pública. Profesor Titular, Facultad de Enfermería. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Bogotá, Colombia. Universidad Pedagógica y tecnológica de Colombia. fgmanriquea@unal.edu.co.
  • Agudelo-Calderon CA; CA. MD. Periodista. M. Sc. Salud Pública.M. Sc. Ciencias. Instituto de Salud Pública. Facultad de Medicina. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Bogotá, Colombia. caagudeloc@unal.edu.co.
  • González-Chordá VM; VG: RN. M. Sc. Enfermería. Ph.D. Ciencias de la Salud. Profesor ayudante doctor. Departamento de Enfermería. Universitat Jaume I. España. vchorda@uji.es.
  • Gutiérrez-Lesmes O; OG. RN. Esp. Epidemiologia. M. Sc. Gestión Ambiental Sostenible. Ph. D(c). Epidemiologia. Profesor Asociado, Escuela de Salud Pública. Universidad de los Llanos. Villavicencio, Colombia. oagutierrez@unillanos.edu.co.
  • Téllez-Piñerez CF; CT. Estadístico. M. Sc. Ciencias Estadística. Ph.D(c). Ciencias. Estadística. Profesor, Universidad Santo Tomas. Bogotá, Colombia. cristiantellez@usantotomas.edu.co.
  • Herrera-Amaya G; GH. RN. M. Sc. Investigación en APD. Ph.D(c). Ciencias Enfermería. Profesora Asistente. Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia. Grupo de Salud pública. giomar.herrera@uptc.edu.co.
Rev Salud Publica (Bogota) ; 22(2): 123-131, 2020 03 01.
Article em Es | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36753100
OBJECTIVE: To develop a prognostic SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A SIR model with a deterministic approach was used to forecast the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia. The states considered were susceptible (S), infectious (i) and recovered or deceased (R). Population data were obtained from the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) - Population Projections 2018-2020, released in January 2020-, and data on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 from the National Institute of Health. Different models were proposed varying the basic reproduction number (R0). RESULTS: Based on the cases reported by the Ministry of Health, 4 simulated environments were created in an epidemiological SIR model. The time series was extended until May 30, the probable date when 99% of the population will be infected. R0=2 is the basic reproduction number and the closest approximation to the behavior of the pandemic during the first 15 days since the first case report; the worst scenario would occur in the first week of April with R0=3. CONCLUSIONS: Further mitigation and suppression measures are necessary in the containment and sustained transmission phases, such as increased diagnostic capacity through testing and disinfection of populated areas and homes in isolation.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: COVID-19 Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies / Screening_studies Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Colombia Idioma: Es Revista: Rev Salud Publica (Bogota) Assunto da revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Colômbia

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: COVID-19 Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies / Screening_studies Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Colombia Idioma: Es Revista: Rev Salud Publica (Bogota) Assunto da revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Colômbia