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Adaptive behaviors and vaccination on curbing COVID-19 transmission: Modeling simulations in eight countries.
Li, Zhaowan; Zhao, Jianguo; Zhou, Yuhao; Tian, Lina; Liu, Qihuai; Zhu, Huaiping; Zhu, Guanghu.
Afiliação
  • Li Z; School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China; Center for Applied Mathematics of Guangxi (GUET), Guilin, China.
  • Zhao J; Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
  • Zhou Y; School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China.
  • Tian L; School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China.
  • Liu Q; School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China; Center for Applied Mathematics of Guangxi (GUET), Guilin, China.
  • Zhu H; LAMPS and Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada.
  • Zhu G; School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guangxi Colleges and Universities Key Laboratory of Data Analysis and Computation, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China; Center for Applied Mathematics of Guangxi (GUET), Guilin, China. Electronic address: ghzhu@guet.edu.cn.
J Theor Biol ; 559: 111379, 2023 02 21.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36496185
Current persistent outbreak of COVID-19 is triggering a series of collective responses to avoid infection. To further clarify the impact mechanism of adaptive protection behavior and vaccination, we developed a new transmission model via a delay differential system, which parameterized the roles of adaptive behaviors and vaccination, and allowed to simulate the dynamic infection process among people. By validating the model with surveillance data during March 2020 and October 2021 in America, India, South Africa, Philippines, Brazil, UK, Spain and Germany, we quantified the protection effect of adaptive behaviors by different forms of activity function. The modeling results indicated that (1) the adaptive activity function can be used as a good indicator for fitting the intervention outcome, which exhibited short-term awareness in these countries, and it could reduce the total human infections by 3.68, 26.16, 15.23, 4.23, 7.26, 1.65, 5.51 and 7.07 times, compared with the reporting; (2) for complete prevention, the average proportions of people with immunity should be larger than 90%, 92%, 86%, 71%, 92%, 84%, 82% and 76% with adaptive protection behaviors, or 91%, 97%, 94%, 77%, 92%, 88%, 85% and 90% without protection behaviors; and (3) the required proportion of humans being vaccinated is a sub-linear decreasing function of vaccine efficiency, with small heterogeneity in different countries. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: COVID-19 Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Asia / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: J Theor Biol Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: China País de publicação: Reino Unido
Texto completo
Adicionar na Minha BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar no Google

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: COVID-19 Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Asia / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: J Theor Biol Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: China País de publicação: Reino Unido