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Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5-11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in Brazil.
Müller, Gabriel Cardozo; Ferreira, Leonardo Souto; Mesias Campos, Felipe Ernesto; Borges, Marcelo Eduardo; Berg de Almeida, Gabriel; Poloni, Silas; Simon, Lorena Mendes; Bagattini, Ângela Maria; Quarti, Michelle; Felizola Diniz Filho, José Alexandre; Kraenkel, Roberto André; Coutinho, Renato Mendes; Camey, Suzi Alves; Kuchenbecker, Ricardo de Souza; Toscano, Cristiana Maria.
Afiliação
  • Müller GC; Programa de Pós-graduação em Epidemiologia, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
  • Ferreira LS; Observatório Covid-19, Brazil.
  • Mesias Campos FE; Instituto de Física Teórica, Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
  • Borges ME; Observatório Covid-19, Brazil.
  • Berg de Almeida G; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
  • Poloni S; Observatório Covid-19, Brazil.
  • Simon LM; Departamento de Infectologia, Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil.
  • Bagattini ÂM; Observatório Covid-19, Brazil.
  • Quarti M; Instituto de Física Teórica, Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
  • Felizola Diniz Filho JA; Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil.
  • Kraenkel RA; Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Instituto de Patologia Tropical e Saúde Pública, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil.
  • Coutinho RM; Departamento de Saúde Coletiva, Instituto de Patologia Tropical e Saúde Pública, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil.
  • Camey SA; Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil.
  • Kuchenbecker RS; Observatório Covid-19, Brazil.
  • Toscano CM; Instituto de Física Teórica, Universidade Estadual Paulista, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 17: 100396, 2023 Jan.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36437904
Background: Developing countries have experienced significant COVID-19 disease burden. With the emergence of new variants, particularly omicron, the disease burden in children has increased. When the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in children aged 5-11 years of age, very few countries recommended vaccination due to limited risk-benefit evidence for vaccination of this population. In Brazil, ranking second in the global COVID-19 death toll, the childhood COVID-19 disease burden increased significantly in early 2022. This prompted a risk-benefit assessment of the introduction and scaling-up of COVID-19 vaccination of children. Methods: To estimate the potential impact of vaccinating children aged 5-11 years with mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine in the context of omicron dominance, we developed a discrete-time SEIR-like model stratified in age groups, considering a three-month time horizon. We considered three scenarios: No vaccination, slow, and maximum vaccination paces. In each scenario, we estimated the potential reduction in total COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, hospitalization costs, and potential years of life lost, considering the absence of vaccination as the base-case scenario. Findings: We estimated that vaccinating at a maximum pace could prevent, between mid-January and April 2022, about 26,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations, and 4200 deaths in all age groups; of which 5400 hospitalizations and 410 deaths in children aged 5-11 years. Continuing vaccination at a slow/current pace would prevent 1450 deaths and 9700 COVID-19 hospitalizations in all age groups in this same time period; of which 180 deaths and 2390 hospitalizations in children only. Interpretation: Maximum vaccination of children results in a significant reduction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and should be enforced in developing countries with significant disease incidence in children. Funding: This manuscript was funded by the Brazilian Council for Scientific and Technology Development (CNPq - Process # 402834/2020-8).
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Lancet Reg Health Am Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Brasil País de publicação: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Lancet Reg Health Am Ano de publicação: 2023 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Brasil País de publicação: Reino Unido