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Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico.
Dong, Bo; Khan, Latifur; Smith, Madison; Trevino, Jesus; Zhao, Bingxin; Hamer, Gabriel L; Lopez-Lemus, Uriel A; Molina, Aracely Angulo; Lubinda, Jailos; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa D T; Haque, Ubydul.
Afiliação
  • Dong B; Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080 USA.
  • Khan L; Department of Computer Science, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080 USA.
  • Smith M; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX USA.
  • Trevino J; Department of Urban Affiars at the School of Architecture, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, 66455 San Nicolás de los Garza, Nuevo Léon Mexico.
  • Zhao B; Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA.
  • Hamer GL; Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX USA.
  • Lopez-Lemus UA; Department of Health Sciences, Center for Biodefense and Global Infectious Diseases, Colima, 28078 Mexico.
  • Molina AA; Department of Chemical and Biological Sciences, University of Sonora, Hermosillo 83000 Sonora, Mexico.
  • Lubinda J; Telethon Kids Institute, Malaria Atlas Project, Nedlands, WA Australia.
  • Nguyen UDT; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX USA.
  • Haque U; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX USA.
Commun Med (Lond) ; 2: 134, 2022.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36317054
Background: The intensity of transmission of Aedes-borne viruses is heterogeneous, and multiple factors can contribute to variation at small spatial scales. Illuminating drivers of heterogeneity in prevalence over time and space would provide information for public health authorities. The objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal clusters and determine the risk factors of three major Aedes-borne diseases, Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Dengue virus (DENV), and Zika virus (ZIKV) clusters in Mexico. Methods: We present an integrated analysis of Aedes-borne diseases (ABDs), the local climate, and the socio-demographic profiles of 2469 municipalities in Mexico. We used SaTScan to detect spatial clusters and utilize the Pearson correlation coefficient, Randomized Dependence Coefficient, and SHapley Additive exPlanations to analyze the influence of socio-demographic and climatic factors on the prevalence of ABDs. We also compare six machine learning techniques, including XGBoost, decision tree, Support Vector Machine with Radial Basis Function kernel, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural network to predict risk factors of ABDs clusters. Results: DENV is the most prevalent of the three diseases throughout Mexico, with nearly 60.6% of the municipalities reported having DENV cases. For some spatiotemporal clusters, the influence of socio-economic attributes is larger than the influence of climate attributes for predicting the prevalence of ABDs. XGBoost performs the best in terms of precision-measure for ABDs prevalence. Conclusions: Both socio-demographic and climatic factors influence ABDs transmission in different regions of Mexico. Future studies should build predictive models supporting early warning systems to anticipate the time and location of ABDs outbreaks and determine the stand-alone influence of individual risk factors and establish causal mechanisms.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Tipo de estudo: Clinical_trials / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies País/Região como assunto: Mexico Idioma: En Revista: Commun Med (Lond) Ano de publicação: 2022 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Tipo de estudo: Clinical_trials / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies País/Região como assunto: Mexico Idioma: En Revista: Commun Med (Lond) Ano de publicação: 2022 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Reino Unido