Minimizing the epidemic final size while containing the infected peak prevalence in SIR systems.
Automatica (Oxf)
; 144: 110496, 2022 Oct.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35936927
Mathematical models are critical to understand the spread of pathogens in a population and evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). A plethora of optimal strategies has been recently developed to minimize either the infected peak prevalence ( I P P ) or the epidemic final size ( E F S ). While most of them optimize a simple cost function along a fixed finite-time horizon, no consensus has been reached about how to simultaneously handle the I P P and the E F S , while minimizing the intervention's side effects. In this work, based on a new characterization of the dynamical behaviour of SIR-type models under control actions (including the stability of equilibrium sets in terms of herd immunity), we study how to minimize the E F S while keeping the I P P controlled at any time. A procedure is proposed to tailor NPIs by separating transient from stationary control objectives: the potential benefits of the strategy are illustrated by a detailed analysis and simulation results related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Prevalence_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Automatica (Oxf)
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Argentina
País de publicação:
Reino Unido