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Simulating the effect of evaluation unit size on eligibility to stop mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis in Haiti.
Kostandova, Natalya; Desir, Luccene; Direny, Abdel; Knipes, Alaine; Lemoine, Jean Frantz; Fayette, Carl Renand; Kirby, Amy; Gass, Katherine.
Afiliação
  • Kostandova N; Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
  • Desir L; Hopital Ste. Croix, Haiti; University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America.
  • Direny A; ENVISION Project, RTI International, Washington DC, United States of America.
  • Knipes A; Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
  • Lemoine JF; Ministry of Public Health and Population, Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
  • Fayette CR; IMA World Health, Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
  • Kirby A; Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
  • Gass K; NTD Support Center, Task Force for Global Health, Decatur, Georgia, United States of America.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 16(1): e0010150, 2022 01.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35089925
BACKGROUND: The Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) is a decision-making tool to determine when transmission of lymphatic filariasis is presumed to have reached a level low enough that it cannot be sustained even in the absence of mass drug administration. The survey is applied over geographic areas, called evaluation units (EUs); existing World Health Organization guidelines limit EU size to a population of no more than 2 million people. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In 2015, TASs were conducted in 14 small EUs in Haiti. Simulations, using the observed TAS results, were performed to understand the potential programmatic impact had Haiti chosen to form larger EUs. Nine "combination-EUs" were formed by grouping adjacent EUs, and bootstrapping was used to simulate the expected TAS results. When the combination-EUs were comprised of at least one "passing" and one "failing" EU, the majority of these combination-EU would pass the TAS 79% - 100% of the time. Even in the case when both component EUs had failed, the combination-EU was expected to "pass" 11% of the time. Simulations of mini-TAS, a strategy with smaller power and hence smaller sample size than TAS, resulted in more conservative "passing" and "failing" when implemented in original EUs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results demonstrate the high potential for misclassification when the average prevalence of lymphatic filariasis in the combined areas differs with regards to the TAS threshold. Of particular concern is the risk of "passing" larger EUs that include focal areas where prevalence is high enough to be potentially self-sustaining. Our results reaffirm the approach that Haiti took in forming smaller EUs. Where baseline or monitoring data show a high or heterogeneous prevalence, programs should leverage alternative strategies like mini-TAS in smaller EUs, or consider gathering additional data through spot check sites to advise EU formation.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Filariose Linfática / Densidade Demográfica / Administração Massiva de Medicamentos Tipo de estudo: Prevalence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Qualitative_research / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: Caribe / Haiti Idioma: En Revista: PLoS Negl Trop Dis Assunto da revista: MEDICINA TROPICAL Ano de publicação: 2022 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos País de publicação: Estados Unidos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Filariose Linfática / Densidade Demográfica / Administração Massiva de Medicamentos Tipo de estudo: Prevalence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Qualitative_research / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Humans País/Região como assunto: Caribe / Haiti Idioma: En Revista: PLoS Negl Trop Dis Assunto da revista: MEDICINA TROPICAL Ano de publicação: 2022 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos País de publicação: Estados Unidos