Lockdown measures and their impact on single- and two-age-structured epidemic model for the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico.
Math Biosci
; 336: 108590, 2021 06.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33785291
The role of lockdown measures in mitigating COVID-19 in Mexico is investigated using a comprehensive nonlinear ODE model. The model includes both asymptomatic and presymptomatic populations with the latter leading to sickness (with recovery, hospitalization and death as possible outcomes). We consider situations involving the application of social-distancing and other intervention measures in the time series of interest. We find optimal parametric fits to the time series of deaths (only), as well as to the time series of deaths and cumulative infections. We discuss the merits and disadvantages of each approach, we interpret the parameters of the model and assess the realistic nature of the parameters resulting from the optimization procedure. Importantly, we explore a model involving two sub-populations (younger and older than a specific age), to more accurately reflect the observed impact as concerns symptoms and behavior in different age groups. For definiteness and to separate people that are (typically) in the active workforce, our partition of population is with respect to members younger vs. older than the age of 65. The basic reproduction number of the model is computed for both the single- and the two-population variant. Finally, we consider what would be the impact of partial lockdown (involving only the older population) and full lockdown (involving the entire population) on the number of deaths and cumulative infections.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Surtos de Doenças
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Humans
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Mexico
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Math Biosci
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Espanha
País de publicação:
Estados Unidos