Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Lockdown measures and their impact on single- and two-age-structured epidemic model for the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico.
Cuevas-Maraver, J; Kevrekidis, P G; Chen, Q Y; Kevrekidis, G A; Villalobos-Daniel, Víctor; Rapti, Z; Drossinos, Y.
Afiliação
  • Cuevas-Maraver J; Grupo de Física No Lineal, Departamento de Física Aplicada I, Universidad de Sevilla. Escuela Politécnica Superior, C/ Virgen de África, 7, 41011 Sevilla, Spain; Instituto de Matemáticas de la Universidad de Sevilla (IMUS). Edificio Celestino Mutis, Avda. Reina Mercedes s/n, 41012 Sevilla, Spain.
  • Kevrekidis PG; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003-4515, USA.
  • Chen QY; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003-4515, USA.
  • Kevrekidis GA; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003-4515, USA.
  • Villalobos-Daniel V; National Center of Disease Prevention and Control Programs - CENAPRECE, Avenida Benjamín Franklin, 132, 11800-Ciudad de Mexico, CDMX, Mexico.
  • Rapti Z; Department of Mathematics and Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA. Electronic address: zrapti@illinois.edu.
  • Drossinos Y; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
Math Biosci ; 336: 108590, 2021 06.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33785291
The role of lockdown measures in mitigating COVID-19 in Mexico is investigated using a comprehensive nonlinear ODE model. The model includes both asymptomatic and presymptomatic populations with the latter leading to sickness (with recovery, hospitalization and death as possible outcomes). We consider situations involving the application of social-distancing and other intervention measures in the time series of interest. We find optimal parametric fits to the time series of deaths (only), as well as to the time series of deaths and cumulative infections. We discuss the merits and disadvantages of each approach, we interpret the parameters of the model and assess the realistic nature of the parameters resulting from the optimization procedure. Importantly, we explore a model involving two sub-populations (younger and older than a specific age), to more accurately reflect the observed impact as concerns symptoms and behavior in different age groups. For definiteness and to separate people that are (typically) in the active workforce, our partition of population is with respect to members younger vs. older than the age of 65. The basic reproduction number of the model is computed for both the single- and the two-population variant. Finally, we consider what would be the impact of partial lockdown (involving only the older population) and full lockdown (involving the entire population) on the number of deaths and cumulative infections.
Assuntos
Texto completo
Adicionar na Minha BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar no Google

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Surtos de Doenças / COVID-19 Tipo de estudo: Risk_factors_studies Limite: Adult / Aged / Aged80 / Humans / Middle aged País/Região como assunto: Mexico Idioma: En Revista: Math Biosci Ano de publicação: 2021 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Espanha País de publicação: Estados Unidos
Texto completo
Adicionar na Minha BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar no Google

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Surtos de Doenças / COVID-19 Tipo de estudo: Risk_factors_studies Limite: Adult / Aged / Aged80 / Humans / Middle aged País/Região como assunto: Mexico Idioma: En Revista: Math Biosci Ano de publicação: 2021 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Espanha País de publicação: Estados Unidos