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Spatial distribution of the relative risk of Zika virus disease in Colombia during the 2015-2016 epidemic from a Bayesian approach.
Flórez-Lozano, Karen; Navarro-Lechuga, Edgar; Llinás-Solano, Humberto; Tuesca-Molina, Rafael; Sisa-Camargo, Augusto; Mercado-Reyes, Marcela; Ospina-Martínez, Martha; Prieto-Alvarado, Franklyn; Acosta-Reyes, Jorge.
Afiliação
  • Flórez-Lozano K; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia.
  • Navarro-Lechuga E; Department of Public Health, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia.
  • Llinás-Solano H; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia.
  • Tuesca-Molina R; Department of Public Health, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia.
  • Sisa-Camargo A; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia.
  • Mercado-Reyes M; Department of Public Health Research, National Institute of Health, Bogotá, Colombia.
  • Ospina-Martínez M; Department of Public Health Research, National Institute of Health, Bogotá, Colombia.
  • Prieto-Alvarado F; Department of Public Health Research, National Institute of Health, Bogotá, Colombia.
  • Acosta-Reyes J; Department of Public Health, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia.
Int J Gynaecol Obstet ; 148 Suppl 2: 55-60, 2020 Jan.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31975401
OBJECTIVE: To determine the spatial distribution of the risk of Zika virus disease in each region of Colombia during the 2015-2016 epidemic. METHODS: An ecological study was designed to estimate the risks for each Colombian region using first-order neighbors, covariate effects, and three adjacent periods of time (beginning, development, and end of the epidemic) to analyze the spatial distribution of the disease based on a Bayesian hierarchical model. RESULTS: Spatial distribution of the estimated risks of Zika virus disease showed that it increased in a strip that crosses the central area of the country from west to east. Analysis of the three time periods showed greater risk of the disease in the central and southern zones-Arauca and Santander-where the increase in risk was four times higher during the peak phase compared with the initial phase of the outbreak. CONCLUSION: In the identified high-risk areas, integrated surveillance systems for Zika virus disease and its complications must be strengthened to provide up-to-date and accurate epidemiological information. This information would allow those involved in policy and decision making to identify new outbreaks and risk clusters, enabling more focused and accurate measures to target at-risk populations.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Medição de Risco / Infecção por Zika virus Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Female / Humans / Male País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Colombia Idioma: En Revista: Int J Gynaecol Obstet Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Colômbia País de publicação: Estados Unidos
Texto completo
Adicionar na Minha BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar no Google

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Medição de Risco / Infecção por Zika virus Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Female / Humans / Male País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Colombia Idioma: En Revista: Int J Gynaecol Obstet Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Colômbia País de publicação: Estados Unidos