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Designing effective control of dengue with combined interventions.
Hladish, Thomas J; Pearson, Carl A B; Toh, Kok Ben; Rojas, Diana Patricia; Manrique-Saide, Pablo; Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.
Afiliação
  • Hladish TJ; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611; tjhladish@gmail.com.
  • Pearson CAB; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.
  • Toh KB; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.
  • Rojas DP; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.
  • Manrique-Saide P; South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa 7600.
  • Vazquez-Prokopec GM; School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.
  • Halloran ME; Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611.
  • Longini IM; Division of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville QLD 4814, Australia.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(6): 3319-3325, 2020 02 11.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31974303
Viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, have expanding ranges and seem unabated by current vector control programs. Effective control of these pathogens likely requires integrated approaches. We evaluated dengue management options in an endemic setting that combine novel vector control and vaccination using an agent-based model for Yucatán, Mexico, fit to 37 y of data. Our intervention models are informed by targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) experiments; trial outcomes and World Health Organization (WHO) testing guidance for the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV; and preliminary results for in-development vaccines. We evaluated several implementation options, including varying coverage levels; staggered introductions; and a one-time, large-scale vaccination campaign. We found that CYD-TDV and TIRS interfere: while the combination outperforms either alone, performance is lower than estimated from their separate benefits. The conventional model hypothesized for in-development vaccines, however, performs synergistically with TIRS, amplifying effectiveness well beyond their independent impacts. If the preliminary performance by either of the in-development vaccines is upheld, a one-time, large-scale campaign followed by routine vaccination alongside aggressive new vector control could enable short-term elimination, with nearly all cases avoided for a decade despite continuous dengue reintroductions. If elimination is impracticable due to resource limitations, less ambitious implementations of this combination still produce amplified, longer-lasting effectiveness over single-approach interventions.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Controle de Mosquitos / Programas de Imunização / Dengue / Vacinas contra Dengue / Modelos Biológicos Limite: Animals / Humans País/Região como assunto: Mexico Idioma: En Revista: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Estados Unidos
Texto completo
Adicionar na Minha BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar no Google

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Controle de Mosquitos / Programas de Imunização / Dengue / Vacinas contra Dengue / Modelos Biológicos Limite: Animals / Humans País/Região como assunto: Mexico Idioma: En Revista: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article País de publicação: Estados Unidos