Optimal Virulence, Diffusion and Tradeoffs.
Bull Math Biol
; 82(2): 16, 2020 01 22.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-31970536
In this work we propose a variant of a classical SIR epidemiological model where pathogens are characterized by a (phenotypic) mutant trait x. Imposing that the trait x mutates according to a random walk process and that it directly influences the epidemiological components of the pathogen, we studied its evolutionary development by interpreting the tenet of maximizing the basic reproductive number of the pathogen as an optimal control problem. Pontryagin's maximum principle was used to identify the possible optimal evolutionary strategies of the pathogen. Qualitatively, three types of optimal evolutionary routes were identified and interpreted in the context of virulence evolution. Each optimal solution imposes a different tradeoff relation among the epidemiological parameters. The results predict (mostly) two kinds of infections: short-lasting mild infections and long-lasting acute infections.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Virulência
/
Interações Hospedeiro-Patógeno
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Animals
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Bull Math Biol
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Brasil
País de publicação:
Estados Unidos