Analysis of a vector-bias malaria transmission model with application to Mexico, Sudan and Democratic Republic of the Congo.
J Theor Biol
; 464: 72-84, 2019 03 07.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30586553
Malaria is a deadly disease transmitted to human through the bite of infected female mosquitoes. The aim of this paper is to study the different vector-bias values between low and high transmission areas with the examples of Mexico (low) and Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo (Congo, DR) (high) during malaria transmission. We develop a malaria transmission model with vector-bias and investigate the basic reproduction number, the existence of equilibria and the corresponding globally asymptotically stable. Then, we simulate the reported cases of Mexico and Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo by World Health Organization (WHO) (WHO, 0000) and predict the direction of the disease. Our simulation results show that the most endemic country is Congo, DR with the highest vector-bias and R0 values, followed by Sudan and Mexico with less, respectively and that the disease will die out in Mexico and persist in Sudan and Congo, DR. Furthermore, we perform sensitivity analysis of R0 and give some useful comments on reducing the cases of the disease.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Mosquitos Vetores
/
Malária
/
Modelos Biológicos
/
Culicidae
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
Africa
/
Mexico
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Theor Biol
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de publicação:
Reino Unido