Prediction of dengue outbreaks in Mexico based on entomological, meteorological and demographic data.
PLoS One
; 13(8): e0196047, 2018.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-30080868
Dengue virus has shown a complex pattern of transmission across Latin America over the last two decades. In an attempt to explain the permanence of the disease in regions subjected to drought seasons lasting over six months, various hypotheses have been proposed. These include transovarial transmission, forest reservoirs and asymptomatic human virus carriers. Dengue virus is endemic in Mexico, a country in which half of the population is seropositive. Seropositivity is a risk factor for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever upon a second encounter with the dengue virus. Since Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever can cause death, it is important to develop epidemiological mathematical tools that enable policy makers to predict regions potentially at risk for a dengue epidemic. We formulated a mathematical model of dengue transmission, considering both human behavior and environmental conditions pertinent to the transmission of the disease. When data on past human population density, temperature and rainfall were entered into this model, it provided an accurate picture of the actual spread of dengue over recent years in four states (representing two climactic conditions) in Mexico.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Surtos de Doenças
/
Dengue
/
Mosquitos Vetores
/
Estágios do Ciclo de Vida
/
Conceitos Meteorológicos
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
/
Female
/
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Mexico
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS One
Assunto da revista:
CIENCIA
/
MEDICINA
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de publicação:
Estados Unidos