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Innovation and the growth of human population.
Weinberger, V P; Quiñinao, C; Marquet, P A.
Afiliação
  • Weinberger VP; Departamento de Ecología, CSIC-PUC), Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Alameda 340, Santiago, Chile.
  • Quiñinao C; Instituto de Ecología & Biodiversidad (IEB), Casilla 653, Santiago, Chile.
  • Marquet PA; CIMFAV, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Valparaíso, General Cruz 222, Valparaíso, Chile.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci ; 372(1735)2017 Dec 05.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29061888
Biodiversity is sustained by and is essential to the services that ecosystems provide. Different species would use these services in different ways, or adaptive strategies, which are sustained in time by continuous innovations. Using this framework, we postulate a model for a biological species (Homo sapiens) in a finite world where innovations, aimed at increasing the flux of ecosystem services (a measure of habitat quality), increase with population size, and have positive effects on the generation of new innovations (positive feedback) as well as costs in terms of negatively affecting the provision of ecosystem services. We applied this model to human populations, where technological innovations are driven by cumulative cultural evolution. Our model shows that depending on the net impact of a technology on the provision of ecosystem services (θ), and the strength of technological feedback (ξ), different regimes can result. Among them, the human population can fill the entire planet while maximizing their well-being, but not exhaust ecosystem services. However, this outcome requires positive or green technologies that increase the provision of ecosystem services with few negative externalities or environmental costs, and that have a strong positive feedback in generating new technologies of the same kind. If the feedback is small, then the technological stock can collapse together with the human population. Scenarios where technological innovations generate net negative impacts may be associated with a limited technological stock as well as a limited human population at equilibrium and the potential for collapse. The only way to fill the planet with humans under this scenario of negative technologies is by reducing the technological stock to a minimum. Otherwise, the only feasible equilibrium is associated with population collapse. Our model points out that technological innovations per se may not help humans to grow and dominate the planet. Instead, different possibilities unfold for our future depending on their impact on the environment and on further innovation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Process and pattern in innovations from cells to societies'.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Crescimento Demográfico / Evolução Cultural / Invenções Limite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Ano de publicação: 2017 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Chile País de publicação: Reino Unido

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Crescimento Demográfico / Evolução Cultural / Invenções Limite: Humans Idioma: En Revista: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Ano de publicação: 2017 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Chile País de publicação: Reino Unido