OBJECTIVE: While the role of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in inducing endothelial dysfunction is fairly well-established the etiological role of endothelial dysfunction in the onset of T2D is still a matter of debate. In the light of conflicting evidence in this regard, we conducted a prospective study to determine the association of circulating levels of soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (sICAM-1) and soluble vessel cell adhesion molecule 1 (sVCAM-1) with incident T2D. METHODS: Data from this study came from 1,269 Mexican Americans of whom 821 initially T2D-free individuals were longitudinally followed up in the San Antonio Family Heart Study. These individuals were followed for 9752.95 person-years for development of T2D. Prospective association of sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1 with incident T2D was studied using Kaplan-Meier survival plots and mixed effects Cox proportional hazards modeling to account for relatedness among study participants. Incremental value of adhesion molecule biomarkers was studied using integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) indexes. RESULTS: Decreasing median values for serum concentrations of sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1 were observed in the following groups in this order: individuals with T2D at baseline, individuals who developed T2D during follow-up, individuals with prediabetes at baseline and normal glucose tolerant (NGT) individuals who remained T2D-free during follow-up. Top quartiles for sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1 were strongly and significantly associated with homeostatic model of assessment--insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Mixed effects Cox proportional hazards modeling revealed that after correcting for important clinical confounders, high sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1 concentrations were associated with 2.52 and 1.99 times faster progression to T2D as compared to low concentrations, respectively. Individuals with high concentrations for both sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1 progressed to T2D 3.42 times faster than those with low values for both sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1. The results were similar in women in reproductive age group and the remainder of the cohort. Inclusion of sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1 in predictive models significantly improved reclassification and discrimination. The majority of these results were seen even when the analyses were restricted to NGT individuals. CONCLUSION: Serum concentrations of sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1 independently and additively predict future T2D and represent important candidate biomarkers of T2D.