[Risk model to assess livestock rabies exposure in the state of São Paulo, Brazil]. / Modelo de risco para circulação do vírus da raiva em herbívoros no estado de São Paulo, Brasil.
Rev Panam Salud Publica
; 30(4): 370-6, 2011 Oct.
Article
em Pt
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-22124696
OBJECTIVE: To propose a qualitative risk assessment model for the study of livestock exposure to rabies virus from the vampire bat Desmodus rotundus (antigenic variant 3) in the Paraíba do Sul river valley, state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS: Based on scenario trees generated considering rabies exposure and its spread, we estimated the probability of rabies cases in large livestock and its association with the geographic location of livestock farms. RESULTS: Assessment of the historical series of rabies focal points in the first semester of 2006, which was used to validate the risk assessment model, revealed that 81.8% of the focal points were adequately foreseen by the model and could have been prevented with strategic vaccination in high-risk areas. CONCLUSIONS: The adoption of control measures specifically targeting high-risk areas might entail a substantial decrease in the number of rabies focal points, at a low cost and with optimal movement of field teams.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Raiva
/
Medição de Risco
/
Gado
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Qualitative_research
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
/
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
Pt
Revista:
Rev Panam Salud Publica
Assunto da revista:
SAUDE PUBLICA
Ano de publicação:
2011
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Brasil
País de publicação:
Estados Unidos