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Establishing the risk of neonatal mortality using a fuzzy predictive model.
Nascimento, Luiz Fernando C; Rocha Rizol, Paloma Maria S; Abiuzi, Luciana B.
Afiliação
  • Nascimento LF; Departamento de Medicina, Universidade de Taubaté, Taubaté, Brasil. lfcn@unitau.br
Cad Saude Publica ; 25(9): 2043-52, 2009 Sep.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19750391
The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to estimate the possibility of neonatal mortality. A computing model was built, based on the fuzziness of the following variables: newborn birth weight, gestational age at delivery, Apgar score, and previous report of stillbirth. The inference used was Mamdani's method and the output was the risk of neonatal death given as a percentage. 24 rules were created according to the inputs. The validation model used a real data file with records from a Brazilian city. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the accuracy of the model, while average risks were compared using the Student t test. MATLAB 6.5 software was used to build the model. The average risks were smaller in survivor newborn (p < 0.001). The accuracy of the model was 0.90. The higher accuracy occurred with risk below 25%, corresponding to 0.70 in respect to sensitivity, 0.98 specificity, 0.99 negative predictive value and 0.22 positive predictive value. The model showed a good accuracy, as well as a good negative predictive value and could be used in general hospitals.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Mortalidade Infantil / Lógica Fuzzy / Medição de Risco Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Humans / Newborn País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Cad Saude Publica Assunto da revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Ano de publicação: 2009 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Brasil País de publicação: Brasil

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Mortalidade Infantil / Lógica Fuzzy / Medição de Risco Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Humans / Newborn País/Região como assunto: America do sul / Brasil Idioma: En Revista: Cad Saude Publica Assunto da revista: SAUDE PUBLICA Ano de publicação: 2009 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Brasil País de publicação: Brasil