[Economic growth and changes in the structure of the population]. / El crecimiento economico y cambios en la estructura de la poblacion
Rev Centroam Econ
; 1(2-3): 9-37, 1980.
Article
em Es
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-12265328
PIP: A reevaluation of classic works by Simon Kuznets and Wassily Leontief suggests that their conclusions concerning the interrelationships between economic growth and population structure correspond to relatively highly specialized characteristics of present forms of capitalist development or underdevelopment and not necessarily to capitalist development within a new international economic order or to socialist development. Kuznets' work seems to offer conclusive proof of the negative effects of rapid population growth on economic development for 3 reasons: 1) requirements for capital are greater, 2) total production and per capita consumption are greatly reduced with high dependency ratios, and 3) rapid growth in consumption is more difficult when the population is growing more rapidly. However, at least 4 problems are noted when Kuznets' ideas are applied to the 3rd world. Kuznets assumes that growth of physical capital is the only source of growth, so that only increased investment can increase returns. Secondly, assuming the same ratio of capital/output for all cases assumes that no substitution of labor for capital is possible. Third, the assumption that participation rates remain the same regardless of dependency ratios may be incorrect. And finally, the difference in per capita consumption that Kuznets attributes to differences in rates of population growth represents a tiny proportion of the total gap in the standard of living of rich countries with slow population growth and poor countries with rapid growth. Kuznets' argument has considerable validity in Third World countries which relay on traditional patterns of capitalist accumulation, but the problems represent the effects of rapid population growth only under the current modes of capitalist expansion. The negative effect of high fertility on savings has probably been greatly exaggerated, and the problems of providing educational facilities and health care for ever larger numbers of persons have been poorly conceptualized. To the degree that employment security, decent salaries, and social programs for the elderly are provided, as they are at present only in socialist countries of the Third World, the incentives for large families will be reduced. The work of Leontief, based on a computer model with 2625 equations, demonstrates that regardless of the rates of population growth in Third World countries, little change in the gap between rich and poor countries can be expected in the foreseeable future.^ieng
Palavras-chave
Age Distribution--changes; Age Factors; Carrying Capacity; Demographic Factors; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Economic Development; Economic Factors; Environment; Family And Household; Family Characteristics; Family Size; Fertility; Income; Literature Review; Mortality--changes; Natural Resources; Population; Population Characteristics; Population Dynamics; Population Growth; Population Pressure; Socioeconomic Factors
Buscar no Google
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Países Desenvolvidos
/
Dinâmica Populacional
/
Características da Família
/
Mortalidade
/
Crescimento Demográfico
/
Distribuição por Idade
/
Países em Desenvolvimento
/
Economia
/
Fertilidade
/
Renda
Tipo de estudo:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Systematic_reviews
Aspecto:
Determinantes_sociais_saude
/
Equity_inequality
Idioma:
Es
Revista:
Rev Centroam Econ
Ano de publicação:
1980
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de publicação:
Honduras