BACKGROUND:Osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture is a common fracture secondary to osteoporosis.At present,there is no effective prediction index and method for osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the predictive effect of the comprehensive index of lumbar vertebral body bone strength on osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture. METHODS:233 patients with osteoporosis were divided into a fracture group and a non-fracture group according to whether a vertebral fracture occurred.The demography,body mass index,vertebral bone mineral density and other details were collected.Lateral X-ray films of the lumbar spine were photographed.The vertebral body width,vertebral body length,sacral slope,pelvic tilt,pelvic incidence,lumbar compressive strength index and the lumbar impact strength index were measured,calculated,and analyzed by univariate and multivariate,and the receiver operating characteristic curve was analyzed.The survival analysis was conducted according to the cut-off value. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)All patients were followed up for 2-4 years,with an average of 3.1 years.During the follow-up period,99 cases(38 cases of L1 vertebral body,61 cases of L2 vertebral body)had fractures(fracture group),and 134 cases(52 cases of L1 vertebral body,82 cases of L2 vertebral body)had no fractures(non-fracture group).Univariate analysis showed that there was no significant difference in age,sex,height,body mass,body mass index and fracture segment between the two groups(P>0.05).(2)Lumbar compressive strength index and lumbar impact strength index in the fracture group were lower than those in the non-fracture group(P<0.05).Pelvic incidence and pelvic tilt in the fracture group were higher than those in the non-fracture group(P<0.05).(3)Multivariate analysis showed that lumbar compressive strength index,lumbar impact strength index and pelvic tilt were risk factors for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures(P<0.05).(4)Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the cutoff values of vertebral bone mineral density,lumbar compressive strength index,lumbar impact strength index,pelvic tilt and pelvic incidence were 0.913 5 g/cm2,1.932,0.903,21.5° and 55°,respectively;areas under the curve were 0.630,0.800,0.911,0.633 and 0.568,respectively.(5)According to the survival analysis(with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture as the end point),the average survival time of the patients with lumbar impact strength index≥0.903 was significantly longer than that of the patients with lumbar impact strength index<0.903(P<0.05).(6)These findings conclude that the comprehensive index of lumbar vertebral body bone strength is more accurate than the bone mineral density of the vertebral body and spine-pelvis sagittal parameters in predicting osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures,which is helpful for early prevention and treatment of osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures.