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Community incidence patterns drive the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and alter intervention impacts in a high-risk institutional setting
Preprint
en En
| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
| ID: ppmedrxiv-22282480
ABSTRACT
Optimization of control measures for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in high-risk institutional settings (e.g., prisons, nursing homes, or military bases) depends on how transmission dynamics in the broader community influence outbreak risk locally. We calibrated an individual-based transmission model of a military training camp to the number of RT-PCR positive trainees throughout 2020 and 2021. The predicted number of infected new arrivals closely followed adjusted national incidence and increased early outbreak risk after accounting for vaccination coverage, masking compliance, and virus variants. Outbreak size was strongly correlated with the predicted number of off-base infections among staff during training camp. In addition, off-base infections reduced the impact of arrival screening and masking, while the number of infectious trainees upon arrival reduced the impact of vaccination and staff testing. Our results highlight the importance of outside incidence patterns for modulating risk and the optimal mixture of control measures in institutional settings. DisclaimerThe views expressed are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent the positions of the U.S. Army, the Department of Defense, or the Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc.
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Texto completo:
1
Colección:
09-preprints
Base de datos:
PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
Tipo de estudio:
Experimental_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Preprint