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Evaluating the impact on health outcomes of an event that resulted in a delay in contact tracing of COVID-19 cases
Lucy Findlater; Livia Pierotti; Charlie Turner; Adrian Wensley; Cong Chen; Shaun Seaman; Pantelis Samartsidis; Andre Charlett; Charlotte Anderson; Gareth Hughes; Matthew Hickman; Obaghe Edeghere; Isabel Oliver.
Afiliación
  • Lucy Findlater; UK Health Security Agency
  • Livia Pierotti; University of Bristol
  • Charlie Turner; UK Health Security Agency
  • Adrian Wensley; UK Health Security Agency
  • Cong Chen; UK Health Security Agency
  • Shaun Seaman; University of Cambridge
  • Pantelis Samartsidis; University of Cambridge
  • Andre Charlett; UK Health Security Agency
  • Charlotte Anderson; UK Health Security Agency
  • Gareth Hughes; UK Health Security Agency
  • Matthew Hickman; University of Bristol
  • Obaghe Edeghere; UK Health Security Agency
  • Isabel Oliver; UK Health Security Agency
Preprint en En | PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-22275053
ABSTRACT
ObjectiveIn September 2020, records of 15,861 SARS-CoV-2 cases failed to upload from the Second Generation Laboratory Surveillance System (SGSS) to the Contact Tracing Advisory Service (CTAS) tool, resulting in a delay in the contact tracing of these cases. This study used CTAS data to determine the impact of this delay on health

outcomes:

transmission events, hospitalisations, and mortality. Previously, a modelling study had suggested a substantial impact. DesignObservational study SettingEngland. PopulationIndividuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and their reported contacts. Main outcome measuresSecondary attack rates (SARs), hospitalisations, and deaths amongst primary and secondary contacts were calculated, compared to all other concurrent, unaffected cases. SGSS records affected by the event were matched to CTAS records and successive contacts and cases were identified. ResultsThe initiation of contact tracing was delayed by 3 days on average in the primary cases in the delay group (6 days) compared to the control group (3 days). This was associated with lower completion of contact tracing of primary cases in the delay group 80% (95%CI 79-81%) in the delay group and 83% (95%CI 83-84%) in the control group. There was some evidence to suggest an increase in transmission to non-household contacts amongst those affected by the delay. The SAR for non-household contacts was higher amongst secondary contacts in the delay group than the control group (delay group 7.9%, 95%CI6.4% to 9.2%; control group 5.9%, 95%CI 5.3% to 6.6%). There was no evidence of a difference between the delay and control groups in the odds of hospitalisation (crude odds ratio 1.1 (95%CI 0.9 to 1.2) or death (crude odds ratio 0.7 (0.1 to 4.0)) amongst secondary contacts. ConclusionsThe delay in contact tracing had a limited impact on population health outcomes. Strengths and limitations of the studyO_LIShows empirical data on the health impact of an event leading to a delay in contact tracing so can test hypotheses generated by models of the potential impact of a delay in contact tracing C_LIO_LIEstimates the extent of further transmission and odds of increased mortality or hospitalisation in up to the third generation of cases affected by the event C_LIO_LIThe event acts as a natural experiment to describe the possible impact of contact tracing, comparing a group affected by chance by delayed contact tracing to a control group who experienced no delay C_LIO_LIContact tracing was not completed for all individuals, so the study might not capture all affected contacts or transmissions C_LI
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 09-preprints Base de datos: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Tipo de estudio: Experimental_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Rct Idioma: En Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Preprint
Texto completo: 1 Colección: 09-preprints Base de datos: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Tipo de estudio: Experimental_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies / Rct Idioma: En Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Preprint