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Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients utilizing rapid antigen tests: a simulation study using viral dynamics models
Yong Dam Jeong; Keisuke Ejima; Kwang Su Kim; Woo Joohyeon; Shoya Iwanami; Yasuhisa Fujita; Il Hyo Jung; Kenji Shibuya; Shingo Iwami; Ana I Bento; Marco Ajelli.
Afiliación
  • Yong Dam Jeong; Pusan National University
  • Keisuke Ejima; Indiana University
  • Kwang Su Kim; Nagoya University
  • Woo Joohyeon; Nagoya University
  • Shoya Iwanami; Nagoya University
  • Yasuhisa Fujita; Nagoya University
  • Il Hyo Jung; Pusan National University
  • Kenji Shibuya; The Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research
  • Shingo Iwami; Nagoya University
  • Ana I Bento; Indiana University
  • Marco Ajelli; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health
Preprint en En | PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-22269769
ABSTRACT
Appropriate isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients are warranted. Currently, isolating for fixed time is adapted in most countries. However, given the variability in viral dynamics between patients, some patients may no longer be infectious by the end of isolation (thus they are redundantly isolated), whereas others may still be infectious. Utilizing viral test results to determine ending isolation would minimize both the risk of ending isolation of infectious patients and the burden due to redundant isolation of noninfectious patients. In our previous study, we proposed a computational framework using SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics models to compute the risk and the burden of different isolation guidelines with PCR tests. In this study, we extend the computational framework to design isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients utilizing rapid antigen tests. Time interval of tests and number of consecutive negative tests to minimize the risk and the burden of isolation were explored. Furthermore, the approach was extended for asymptomatic cases. We found the guideline should be designed considering various factors the infectiousness threshold values, the detection limit of antigen tests, symptom presence, and an acceptable level of releasing infectious patients. Especially, when detection limit is higher than the infectiousness threshold values, more consecutive negative results are needed to ascertain loss of infectiousness. To control the risk of releasing of infectious individuals under certain levels, rapid antigen tests should be designed to have lower detection limits than infectiousness threshold values to minimize the length of prolonged isolation, and the length of prolonged isolation increases when the detection limit is higher than the infectiousness threshold values, even though the guidelines are optimized for given conditions.
Licencia
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 09-preprints Base de datos: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Tipo de estudio: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Preprint
Texto completo: 1 Colección: 09-preprints Base de datos: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Tipo de estudio: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Año: 2022 Tipo del documento: Preprint