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Reconstructing the COVID-19 epidemic in Delhi, India: infection attack rate and reporting of deaths
Preprint
en En
| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
| ID: ppmedrxiv-21254092
ABSTRACT
India reported over 10 million COVID-19 cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To estimate exposure and the potential for further spread, we used a SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fit to seroprevalence data from three serosurveys in Delhi and the time-series of reported deaths to reconstruct the epidemic. The cumulative proportion of the population estimated infected was 48.7% (95% CrI 22.1% - 76.8%) by end-September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries (HICs), we estimate that 15.0% (95% CrI 9.3% - 34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths were reported. This indicates either under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths and/or a lower age-specific IFR in India compared with HICs. Despite the high attack rate of SARS-CoV-2, a third wave occurred in late 2020, suggesting that herd immunity was not yet reached. Future dynamics will strongly depend on the duration of immunity and protection against new variants.
cc_by_nc_nd
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
09-preprints
Base de datos:
PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
Tipo de estudio:
Experimental_studies
/
Observational_studies
Idioma:
En
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Preprint