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Entry screening and multi-layer mitigation of COVID-19 cases for a safe university reopening
Preprint
en En
| PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
| ID: ppmedrxiv-20184473
ABSTRACT
We have performed detailed modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic within the State of Illinois at the population level, and within the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign at a more detailed level of description that follows individual students as they go about their educational and social activities. We ask the following questions O_LIHow many COVID-19 cases are expected to be detected by entry screening? C_LIO_LIWill this initial "bump" in cases be containable using the mitigation steps being undertaken at UIUC? C_LI Our answers are O_LIAssuming that there are approximately 45,000 students returning to campus in the week beginning August 15, 2020, our most conservative estimate predicts that a median of 270 {+/-} 90 (minimum-maximum range) COVID-19 positive cases will be detected by entry screening. The earliest estimate for entry screening that we report was made on July 24th and predicted 198 {+/-} 90 (68% CI) positive cases. C_LIO_LIIf the number of returning students is less, then our estimate just needs to be scaled proportionately. C_LIO_LIThis initial bump will be contained by entry screening initiated isolation and contact tracing, and once the semester is underway, by universal masking, a hybrid teaching model, twice-weekly testing, isolation, contact tracing, quarantining and the use of the Safer Illinois exposure notification app. C_LI
cc_by_nc_nd
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
09-preprints
Base de datos:
PREPRINT-MEDRXIV
Tipo de estudio:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Preprint