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From predictions to prescriptions: A data-drivenresponse to COVID-19
Dimitris Bertsimas; Leonard Boussioux; Ryan Cory Wright; Arthur Delarue; Vassilis Digalakis Jr.; Alexandre Jacquillat; Driss Lahlou Kitane; Galit Lukin; Michael L Li; Luca Mingardi; Omid Nohadani; Agni Orfanoudaki; Theodore Papalexopoulos; Ivan Paskov; Jean Pauphilet; Omar Skali Lami; Bartolomeo Stellato; Hamza Tazi Bouardi; Kimberly Villalobos Carballo; Holly Wiberg; Cynthia Zeng.
Afiliación
  • Dimitris Bertsimas; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Leonard Boussioux; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Ryan Cory Wright; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Arthur Delarue; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Vassilis Digalakis Jr.; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Alexandre Jacquillat; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Driss Lahlou Kitane; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Galit Lukin; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Michael L Li; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Luca Mingardi; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Omid Nohadani; Benefits Science Technologies
  • Agni Orfanoudaki; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Theodore Papalexopoulos; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Ivan Paskov; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Jean Pauphilet; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Omar Skali Lami; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Bartolomeo Stellato; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Hamza Tazi Bouardi; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Kimberly Villalobos Carballo; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Holly Wiberg; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Cynthia Zeng; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Preprint en En | PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-20141127
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ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at a steep economic price. We design analytical tools to support these decisions and combat the pandemic. Specifically, we propose a comprehensive data-driven approach to understand the clinical characteristics of COVID-19, predict its mortality, forecast its evolution, and ultimately alleviate its impact. By leveraging cohort-level clinical data, patient-level hospital data, and census-level epidemiological data, we develop an integrated four-step approach, combining descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analytics. First, we aggregate hundreds of clinical studies into the most comprehensive database on COVID-19 to paint a new macroscopic picture of the disease. Second, we build personalized calculators to predict the risk of infection and mortality as a function of demographics, symptoms, comorbidities, and lab values. Third, we develop a novel epidemiological model to project the pandemics spread and inform social distancing policies. Fourth, we propose an optimization model to reallocate ventilators and alleviate shortages. Our results have been used at the clinical level by several hospitals to triage patients, guide care management, plan ICU capacity, and re-distribute ventilators. At the policy level, they are currently supporting safe back-to-work policies at a major institution and equitable vaccine distribution planning at a major pharmaceutical company, and have been integrated into the US Center for Disease Controls pandemic forecast. Significance StatementIn the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare providers and policy makers are wrestling with unprecedented challenges. How to treat COVID-19 patients with equipment shortages? How to allocate resources to combat the disease? How to plan for the next stages of the pandemic? We present a data-driven approach to tackle these challenges. We gather comprehensive data from various sources, including clinical studies, electronic medical records, and census reports. We develop algorithms to understand the disease, predict its mortality, forecast its spread, inform social distancing policies, and re-distribute critical equipment. These algorithms provide decision support tools that have been deployed on our publicly available website, and are actively used by hospitals, companies, and policy makers around the globe.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 09-preprints Base de datos: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Tipo de estudio: Cohort_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Preprint
Texto completo: 1 Colección: 09-preprints Base de datos: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Tipo de estudio: Cohort_studies / Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Preprint