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Modes of contact and risk of transmission in COVID-19 among close contacts
Lei Luo; Dan Liu; Xin-long Liao; Xian-bo Wu; Qin-long Jing; Jia-zhen Zheng; Fang-hua Liu; Shi-gui Yang; Bi Bi; Zhi-hao Li; Jian-ping Liu; Wei-qi Song; Wei Zhu; Zheng-he Wang; Xi-ru Zhang; Pei-liang Chen; Hua-min Liu; Xin Cheng; Miao-chun Cai; Qing-mei Huang; Pei Yang; Xin-fen Yang; Zhi-gang Huang; Jin-ling Tang; Yu Ma; Chen Mao.
Afiliación
  • Lei Luo; Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Dan Liu; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Xin-long Liao; Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Xian-bo Wu; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Qin-long Jing; Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Jia-zhen Zheng; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Fang-hua Liu; Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Shi-gui Yang; State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The
  • Bi Bi; Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Zhi-hao Li; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Jian-ping Liu; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Wei-qi Song; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Wei Zhu; Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Zheng-he Wang; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Xi-ru Zhang; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Pei-liang Chen; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Hua-min Liu; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Xin Cheng; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Miao-chun Cai; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Qing-mei Huang; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Pei Yang; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Xin-fen Yang; School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
  • Zhi-gang Huang; Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Jin-ling Tang; Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center
  • Yu Ma; Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Chen Mao; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University
Preprint en En | PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-20042606
ABSTRACT
BackgroundRapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan prompted heightened surveillance in Guangzhou and elsewhere in China. Modes of contact and risk of transmission among close contacts have not been well estimated. MethodsWe included 4950 closes contacts from Guangzhou, and extracted data including modes of contact, laboratory testing, clinical characteristics of confirmed cases and source cases. We used logistic regression analysis to explore the risk factors associated with infection of close contacts. ResultsAmong 4950 closes contacts, the median age was 38.0 years, and males accounted for 50.2% (2484). During quarantine period, 129 cases (2.6%) were diagnosed, with 8 asymptomatic (6.2%), 49 mild (38.0%), and 5 (3.9%) severe to critical cases. The sensitivity of throat swab was 71.32% and 92.19% at first to second PCR test. Among different modes of contact, household contacts were the most dangerous in catching with infection of COVID-19, with an incidence of 10.2%. As the increase of age for close contacts and severity of source cases, the incidence of COVID-19 presented an increasing trend from 1.8% (0-17 years) to 4.2% (60 or over years), and from 0.33% for asymptomatic, 3.3% for mild, to 6.2% for severe and critical source cases, respectively. Manifestation of expectoration in source cases was also highly associated with an increased risk of infection in their close contacts (13.6%). Secondary cases were in general clinically milder and were less likely to have common symptoms than those of source cases. ConclusionsIn conclusion, the proportion of asymptomatic and mild infections account for almost half of the confirmed cases among close contacts. The household contacts were the main transmission mode, and clinically more severe cases were more likely to pass the infection to their close contacts. Generally, the secondary cases were clinically milder than those of source cases.
Licencia
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 09-preprints Base de datos: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Tipo de estudio: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Preprint
Texto completo: 1 Colección: 09-preprints Base de datos: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Tipo de estudio: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies Idioma: En Año: 2020 Tipo del documento: Preprint