Direct and indirect estimates of HIV-1 incidence in a high-prevalence population.
Am J Epidemiol
; 147(9): 834-9, 1998 May 01.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-9583713
ABSTRACT
PIP: HIV incidence data, necessary for the planning and evaluation of national AIDS control programs, are difficult to obtain directly. In this study, HIV-1 incidence in Trinidad was estimated in a population known to be at high risk: heterosexuals attending a sexually transmitted disease clinic in Port of Spain in 1987-95. HIV incidence estimates were obtained from serial cross-sectional studies of HIV-1 prevalence (n = 3625), passive follow-up of clinic recidivists (n = 98), modeling of early markers of HIV-1 infection (p24 antigen screening) (n = 12,154), and a cohort study of seronegative genital ulcer disease cases (n = 196). Measuring incidence density in genital ulcer disease cases directly gave the highest estimate: 6.9% per year. Screening for the detection of early HIV-1 markers yielded an incidence of 5.0% per year, while estimating incidence from serial cross-sectional prevalence data and clinic recidivists provided estimates of 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively. Although these estimates come from groups within the clinic population with differential HIV-1 risk, they were internally consistent. These findings suggest that indirect estimates of incidence based on prevalence data can provide accurate surrogates of true HIV incidence and may be used to target suitable populations for cohort studies.
Palabras clave
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Americas; Caribbean; Cohort Analysis; Cross Sectional Analysis; Developing Countries; Diseases; Estimation Technics; Hiv Infections; Incidence; Indirect Estimation Technics; Infections; Measurement; North America; Prevalence; Reproductive Tract Infections; Research Methodology; Research Report; Sexually Transmitted Diseases; Trinidad And Tobago; Viral Diseases
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Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Infecciones por VIH
/
VIH-1
Tipo de estudio:
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prevalence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
País/Región como asunto:
Caribe ingles
/
Trinidad y tobago
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Am J Epidemiol
Año:
1998
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Estados Unidos
Pais de publicación:
Estados Unidos