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The impact of climate and demographic changes on future mortality in Brussels, Belgium.
Crouzier, C; Van Schaeybroeck, B; Duchêne, F; Duchêne, M; Hamdi, R; Kirakoya-Samadoulougou, F; Demoury, C.
Afiliación
  • Crouzier C; Sciensano, Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Brussels, Belgium; Centre de Recherche en Epidémiologie, Biostatistique et Recherche Clinique, Ecole de Santé Publique, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Van Schaeybroeck B; Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Duchêne F; Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Duchêne M; Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Hamdi R; Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Kirakoya-Samadoulougou F; Centre de Recherche en Epidémiologie, Biostatistique et Recherche Clinique, Ecole de Santé Publique, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Demoury C; Sciensano, Risk and Health Impact Assessment, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: claire.demoury@sciensano.be.
Public Health ; 236: 261-267, 2024 Sep 13.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39276564
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES:

City populations are particularly vulnerable to climate change, but it is difficult to reliably estimate the impact on health due to the lack of high-resolution data. We used recently developed regional climate model projections at kilometre resolution combined with demographic projections to estimate the future mortality burden associated with temperatures in the region of Brussels, Belgium. STUDY

DESIGN:

The study incorporated a time-series analysis.

METHODS:

Based on quasi-Poisson regression with distributed-lag non-linear models for the historical temperature-mortality relationship, we derive the mortality burden for the near (2020-2044) and mid (2045-2069) future and disaggregated the contributions of demographic and climate changes.

RESULTS:

The cold-related attributable fraction of deaths is expected to decrease from 6.22% (95% empirical confidence interval 1.76%; 10.52%) in 1994-2019 to 5.17% (1.08%; 9.09%) in 2045-2069, whereas for heat, this fraction will increase from 1.02% (0.59%; 1.47%) to 1.83% (0.82%; 2.96%), with contributions of both climate and demographic changes. In stratified analyses by age, we found that because of demographic changes, the number of cold-attributable deaths will increase for people aged above 85 years, with 6815 (95% empirical confidence interval 1424; 12,003) deaths expected in 2045-2069 compared to 5245 (1462; 8867) deaths in 1994-2019. For people aged below 65 years, on the other hand, the number of heat-related deaths will decrease from 456 (265; 658) to 344 (154; 561) deaths.

CONCLUSIONS:

Public health policies that especially target the elderly and the summer-time period are needed to limit the impact of climate change on health.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Public Health Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Bélgica Pais de publicación: Países Bajos
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Public Health Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Bélgica Pais de publicación: Países Bajos