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Is heat wave a predictor of diarrhoea in Dhaka, Bangladesh? A time-series analysis in a South Asian tropical monsoon climate.
Haque, Farhana; Lampe, Fiona C; Hajat, Shakoor; Stavrianaki, Katerina; Hasan, S M Tafsir; Faruque, A S G; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Jubayer, Shamim; Kelman, Ilan.
Afiliación
  • Haque F; Institute for Global Health (IGH), University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom.
  • Lampe FC; UK Public Health Rapid Support Team (UK-PHRST), Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom.
  • Hajat S; Institute for Global Health (IGH), University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom.
  • Stavrianaki K; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, United Kingdom.
  • Hasan SMT; Department of Statistical Science, Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom.
  • Faruque ASG; Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Ahmed T; Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Jubayer S; Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  • Kelman I; National Heart Foundation Hospital and Research Institute (NHF&RI), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 4(9): e0003629, 2024.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39226251
ABSTRACT
While numerous studies have assessed the association between temperature and diarrhoea in various locations, evidence of relationship between heat wave and diarrhoea is scarce. We defined elevated daily mean and maximum temperature over the 95th and 99th percentiles lasting for at least one day between March to October 1981-2010 as TAV95 and TAV99 and D95 and D99 heat wave, respectively. We investigated the association between heat wave and daily counts of hospitalisations for all-cause diarrhoea in Dhaka, Bangladesh using time series regression analysis employing constrained distributed lag-linear models. Effects were assessed for all ages and children aged under 5 years of age. Diarrhoea hospitalisation increased by 6.7% (95% CI 4.6%- 8.9%), 8.3% (3.7-13.1), 7.0 (4.8-9.3) and 7.4 (3.1-11.9) in all ages on a TAV95, TAV99, D95 and D99 heat wave day, respectively. These effects were more pronounced for under-5 children with an increase of 13.9% (95% CI 8.3-19.9), 24.2% (11.3-38.7), 17.0 (11.0-23.5) and 19.5 (7.7-32.6) in diarrhoea hospitalisations on a TAV95, TAV99, D95 and D99 heat wave day, respectively. At lags of 3 days, we noticed a negative association indicating a 'harvesting' effect. Our findings suggest that heat wave was a significant risk factor for diarrhoea hospitalisation in Dhaka. Further research is needed to elucidate the causal pathways and identify the preventive measures necessary to mitigate the impacts of heat waves on diarrhoea. Given that no heat wave definitions exist for Dhaka, these results may help to define heat waves for Dhaka and trigger public health interventions including heat alerts to prevent heat-related morbidity in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: PLOS Glob Public Health Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Reino Unido Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: PLOS Glob Public Health Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Reino Unido Pais de publicación: Estados Unidos