Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California.
Popul Dev Rev
; 50(Suppl 1): 101-128, 2024 Jul.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-39220677
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by social and economic changes previously associated with fertility delay and reduction, sparking widespread discussion of a "baby bust" in the U.S. We examine fertility trends using restricted vital statistics data from California, a diverse population of 40 million contributing 12% of U.S. births. Using time series models that account for longer-run fertility trends, we observe modest, short-term reductions in births from mid 2020 through early 2021. Birth counts in subsequent months matched or even eased the pace of fertility decline since the 2008 recession and are unlikely a function of the pandemic alone. Responses to the pandemic were heterogeneous. Fertility declined markedly among the foreign-born population, largely driven by changes in net migration. Among the U.S.-born population, the short-term pandemic-attributable reductions were largest among older, highly educated people, suggesting mechanisms of fertility reduction disparately accessible to those with the most resources. We find no evidence of a strong population fertility response to the pandemic's accompanying employment shock, providing additional evidence of a growing divide between macroeconomic conditions and fertility patterns in the U.S.
Texto completo:
1
Colección:
01-internacional
Base de datos:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Popul Dev Rev
Año:
2024
Tipo del documento:
Article
Pais de publicación:
Estados Unidos