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Quantifying the historical and future heat-related mortality above the heat alert thresholds of the inaugural Chinese national heat-health action plan.
Yi, Weizhuo; Bach, Aaron; Tong, Shilu; Cheng, Jian; Yang, Jun; Zheng, Hao; Ho, Hung Chak; Song, Jian; Pan, Rubing; Su, Hong; Xu, Zhiwei.
Afiliación
  • Yi W; School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China; School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia.
  • Bach A; School of Health Sciences and Social Work, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia; Cities Research Institute, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia.
  • Tong S; National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia.
  • Cheng J; School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China.
  • Yang J; School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
  • Zheng H; Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China.
  • Ho HC; Department of Public and International Affairs, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
  • Song J; School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China.
  • Pan R; School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China.
  • Su H; School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Inflammation and Immune Mediated Diseases Laboratory of Anhui Province, Hefei, China; Center for Big Data and Population Health of IHM, Hefei, China; Anhui Mental Health Center (Affiliated Psychological Hospital of Anhui Medical Univer
  • Xu Z; School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia; Cities Research Institute, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia. Electronic address: xzw1011@gmail.com.
Environ Res ; 262(Pt 1): 119869, 2024 Aug 30.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39218339
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

China published its inaugural national heat-health action plan (HHAP) in 2023, but the mortality burden associated with temperatures exceeding the heat alert thresholds specified by this HHAP (maximum temperatures >35, 37, or 40 °C) remains unknown. We aimed to estimate the historical and future mortality burden associated with temperatures above the heat alert thresholds of the Chinese national HHAP.

METHODS:

We conducted time-series analyses to estimate the mortality burden associated with temperatures exceeding the three heat alert thresholds from 2016 to 2019 in Jiangsu Province (including 13 cities, population ∼80.7 million), China. A quasi-Poisson regression in conjunction with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the dose-response association between maximum temperature and mortality risk from 2016 to 2019, adjusting for potential covariates. We then projected the future mortality burden associated with temperatures exceeding these thresholds under three distinct levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios via scenario shared socioeconomic pathways [SSP] 1-2.6 (low), SSP2-4.5 (intermediate), and SSP5-8.5 (high), respectively, by assuming that there will be no adaptation to heat. Climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used.

RESULTS:

From 2016 to 2019, temperatures above 35 °C were associated with 0.51% of mortality, including 0.40% associated with 35 °C-37 °C and 0.11% associated with >37 °C. Heat-related mortality risk was most prominent in those who were single/divorced/widowed and had <10 years of education. Under SSP2-4.5, compared with the 2020s, the excess mortality associated with >37 °C would increase by 1.4 times in the 2050s and 1.7 times in the 2090s. Under SSP5-8.5, the annual number of days with maximum temperature >37 °C would approximately double every 20 years (67 days annually in the 2090s). Consequently, compared with the 2020s, the excess mortality associated with >37 °C would increase by 2.8 times in the 2050s and 18.4 times in the 2090s.

CONCLUSION:

Significant mortality risk is associated with temperatures above the lowest heat alert threshold of the Chinese national HHAP (35 °C). If the high GHG emission scenario occurred, the annual number of days and excess mortality associated with maximum temperatures >37 °C would largely increase in the coming decades.
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Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Environ Res Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Australia Pais de publicación: Países Bajos
Texto completo
Añadir a Mi BVS
Imprimir
XML
PubMed Links
Buscar en Google

Texto completo: 1 Colección: 01-internacional Base de datos: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Environ Res Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article País de afiliación: Australia Pais de publicación: Países Bajos